The
acceptance by the US of an apparently tough climate change agreement in
Kyoto last week took place only after an extraordinary behind-the-scenes
deal with Russia, New Scientist has learnt from delegates.
The climate summit was saved
at the last moment when the US agreed almost to match European Union targets
for cuts in greenhouse gas emissions -- but only in return for being allowed
to buy extra "rights to pollute" from Russia.
Early in the week, the EU twice
refused to accept an 8 per pent cut in its 1990 emissions by 2010 because
the US had only agreed to a reduction of 2 per cent and later 5 percent.
Then on Tuesday night, hours before the summit was due to end, the US announced
the formation of a "carbon club" consisting of itself, Canada, Japan and
Russia, to trade emissions permits among themselves.
Emissions trading allows countries
that emit below their targets to sell their unused pollution rights to
countries that over-emit. But the carbon club gives the North Americans
and Japanese first rights to buy the expected spare permits from Russia.
The trade could be lucrative. Russia's carbon dioxide emissions are now
30 per cent below 1990 levels, and European analysts suggest they will
at best recover only two-thirds of that ground before 2008, when the trading
will begin.
European negotiators had not
been told of the deal, and shortly after it had been made other countries
watched in amazement as a posse of eight British delegates, headed by Deputy
Prime Minister John Prescott, stormed across the hall to confront the US
delegates.
Then the Russian delegation,
after pressure from the Americans, demanded that its national targets be
slackened further from a proposed cut of 5 per cent to stabilisation by
2010. Russia called any reductions in emissions "a national resource" that
it had a "sovereign right" to use. The deal will give Russia even more
spare permits to sell to the US.
With this extra element in place,
the US agreed to raise its target to 7 per cent -- within one point of
the EU. Fellow club members Canada and Japan strengthened their offers
respectively from 5 to 6 per cent and from 4.5 to 6 per cent. Presented
with a fait accompli, European delegates had either to accept the deal
or wreck the conference. They accepted -- despite advice from energy analysts
that trading would permit the US and Japan to raise their domestic emissions
by between 12 and 16 per cent above any national targets.
Targets agreed at Kyoto Changes to 1990 levels by 2010 +10% Iceland +8% Australia +1% Norway +-O% New Zealand, Russia, Ukraine -5% Croatia -6% Japan, Canada, Hungary, Poland -7% US -8% EU (collectively), Bulgaria, Czech Rep, Estonia, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Monaco, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland