2/11/00
The Economist
Better Times For Saddam Hussein
http://www.economist.com/editorial/freeforall/current/ir0420.html
 

              One man’s joy in Iraq
 

              “DO YOU have any newspapers?” Iraqi border guards
              ask travellers arriving from Jordan. Like most of their
              countrymen, they are anxious for any information,
              especially about Iraq itself, that is unfiltered by
              government propagandists. But recently, as Iraq has
              faded from the world’s headlines, the pickings have
              been thin. Saddam Hussein’s regime seems more firmly
              entrenched than at any time in the past ten years, and
              the international dispute over how to handle him is as
              intractable as ever. No news may be good news for Mr
              Hussein, but it is a disaster for the bulk of his citizens.

              The one place where talk of Iraq rattles on is the United
              Nations Security Council. After squabbling for a year
              over what sort of arms-control regime to impose on
              Iraq, it eventually created a new body, Unmovic, to
              ferret out whatever nasty weapons its predecessor,
              Unscom, had overlooked. A further month of
              squabbling ensued over who to put in charge.
              Eventually, last month, the council settled on Hans Blix,
              a former Swedish foreign minister and head of the
              International Atomic Energy Agency. After taking up his
              new position on March 1st, Mr Blix has 45 days to
              produce an “organisational plan”, over which the
              Security Council will doubtless squabble some more.

              Even if the council agrees on an agenda for Unmovic,
              the Iraqi government has refused to have anything to do
              with the new body. It might back down if pressed, as it
              has done before. But should Unmovic ever manage to
              get into Iraq, it would doubtless fall foul of the same
              intransigence that stymied its predecessor. And since
              Mr Blix’s every move will be subject to council
              members’ vetoes, there is endless room for things to
              continue to go wrong.

              Viewed from Iraq, all this debate has an air of unreality.
              The border guards have no time to wonder whether or
              not Mr Blix will ever arrive; they are busy with other
              customers. Tunisian, Jordanian and Indian businessmen
              jostle at the passport desk. An Italian commercial
              delegation follows fast on the heels of an Austrian one.
              A German contingent recently passed through to reopen
              their embassy in Baghdad; Japan is about to follow suit.
              Iraqi delegations will soon travel the other way, en route
              to Spain and Turkey.

              The lobby of Baghdad’s plushest hotel, which stood
              empty and echoing two years ago, seethes with
              diplomats and businessmen taking in an exhibition on
              “American aggression”. In theory, the world is still
              ostracising Mr Hussein’s regime with the strictest
              sanctions ever imposed. But, by now, in practice, many
              foreign firms and governments are keen to rebuild old
              ties.

              Although simply hobnobbing with Iraqi officials does not
              contravene the letter of the sanctions, many do not stop
              at that. In principle, all goods entering Iraq should
              receive approval from a special UN committee. But for
              every truck crossing the Jordanian border by the book,
              UN staff reckon that another 20 pass without permission
              (some of those, admittedly, fall under a Jordanian-Iraqi
              barter deal sanctioned by the UN). At the Turkish
              border, there are 200 embargo-busters for every
              legitimate load.

              To pay for goods brought in this way, the Iraqi regime
              smuggles oil out by land and sea. In the north, the line of
              tankers waiting to cross the Turkish frontier is
              sometimes backed up for 30km (18 miles). At the
              opposite end of the country, in the Gulf, fleets of small
              ships load up with Iraqi oil and then sneak out through
              Iranian waters. Although American and British patrol
              boats intercept some of the smugglers, such as the
              Russian tanker seized last week, many more slip by.

              Some of the fruits of this trade are on display in
              Baghdad. In stores catering to senior government
              people, shoppers deliberate over cognac and delicacies
              that are certainly not part of the normal UN food ration.
              Pirated copies of the latest American films and serials
              are regularly shown on Iraqi television. Mr Hussein’s
              newest palace, draped in scaffolding a year ago, now
              presents an unblemished façade to the skyline. Workers
              are fixing smart stone cladding on run-down government
              offices.

              The traffic police whizz about on shiny new motorbikes.
              The well-equipped security services seem firmly in
              charge; even the rumours of protest against the regime
              that emerged from southern Iraq last year have died out.
              After poring over satellite photographs, American
              officials recently announced that Iraq had rebuilt many
              of the buildings destroyed by American bombs in air
              raids in December 1998.

              But even if Mr Hussein has found ways around the
              embargo, most Iraqis have not. To mitigate their plight,
              the UN set up the “oil-for-food” programme, whereby
              its staff supervise the sale of limited amounts of Iraqi oil
              and the purchase of humanitarian goods with the
              proceeds. Although supplies of food and medicine have
              increased, Iraqi bureaucrats still hamper distribution,
              while American and British representatives at the UN
              have put many of the humanitarian contracts that they
              question on indefinite hold.

              Increased rations have helped with basic nutrition but
              with little else. They cannot touch the general ruin of the
              country after ten years of sanctions: the scale of
              dilapidation is too great. For instance, the road from
              Baghdad to Basra reveals that the agricultural land in
              between has become one vast salt pan. Computer
              programmers and electrical engineers moonlight as
              taxi-drivers for want of work. Iraq’s lapsed middle
              classes hawk rusting plumbing joints at one of
              Baghdad’s many impromptu markets. A hospital in
              Basra, miserably short of all its imported supplies, says
              that even its blood-bank (presumably not imported) has
              been empty for the past six days.

              As one unemployed scientist puts it, “Life is very, very
              bad.” This stark summing-up does not apply to Mr
              Hussein and his friends. And none of it, good or bad, is
              news for the news-starved border guards.