Dubai - With 10 years already lost under  sanctions since the
disastrous
invasion of  Kuwait, Iraq faces several more bleak decades to come with
or without President Saddam  Hussein.

 Potentially among the richest countries of the Middle East, due to its
wealth in oil and  water and once high education standards, Iraq today
ranks among the world's most  isolated and backward while having to
learn to rely on its own skills.

 On the eve of the 10th anniversary of the 2 August invasion, Iraq
analysts warn it will be  a long and painful road to recovery, even
with a
lifting of sanctions and a change of  regime in Baghdad.

 "The outlook for Iraq is pretty awful. It will take virtually all of
the 21st
century for Iraq to  re-emerge as a regional power," said Professor
Anoush Ehteshami, director of Middle  East studies at Britain's Durham
University.

 "You can rebuild the infrastructure in 20 years or so, but not the
people.
To equip them  for a modern economy, it will take many more decades,
and all the oil income in the world  will not help."

 Former UN humanitarian programme chiefs insist that the embargo has
backfired since  Iraq's ouster from Kuwait in the 1991 Gulf War, with
the
Iraqi population of 22 million  paying a tragic price.

 "The sanctions have helped sustain the staying power of the regime and
given it an  effective system of control," said Ehteshami. "Everyone in
Iraq is dependent on the Iraqi  regime, which now has a stronger grip
than ever before."

 Khaldun al-Naqeeb, a political sciences professor at Kuwait
University,
pointed out that  Iraq's economic future has been mortgaged for most of
the coming century because of  the hundreds of billions of dollars in
claims for war reparations.

 "I believe very strongly that a promise of outside financial help
would
be an incentive for  the Iraqi people to get rid of Saddam Hussein, if
they
can," he said, calling for the  international community to offer to
limit the
massive reparations.

 But politically, even with a change of regime, "it's going to be a
rather
bleak picture", he  said.

 "Any new regime is not likely to be democratic or liberal, although
there
will be a larger  role for economic reforms and some political
openness,"
predicted the professor, a  Kuwaiti of Iraqi origin.

 Naqeeb warned that a post-Saddam Iraq would likewise face "the real
and present danger  of being dismembered. Tribalism and sectarianism
will come to the fore as soon as there is  a sudden change".

 In the short term, Iraq has been offered a suspension of sanctions in
return for its full  co-operation with UNMOVIC, a new UN arms
inspection regime, under UN Security  Council resolution 1284.

 "Although Iraq has officially rejected (the resolution), it's possible
Iraq
will be  encouraged to adjust its position in the next few months,"
said
Neil Patrick, head of the  Middle East programme of the Royal United
Services Institute in London.

 He said "constructive ambiguity in the resolution allows for future
negotiation of details"  and that "the new inspectorate will be easier
for
Iraq" than the disarmament body  evacuated in December 1998 on the
eve of a US-British air campaign.

 But a former senior arms inspector said it was unlikely Iraq would co-
operate, especially  since the threat of military action has receded.

 "The sanctions are eroding anyway. For the regime, survival is its
only
concern. The  status quo benefits them more since the regime now
controls everything," said Colonel  Terence Taylor of London's
International Institute for Strategic Studies.

 "As perceived from Baghdad, it does not have much to gain at the
moment from allowing  in a new inspection regime," said Taylor, who
served as an arms inspector between 1993  and 1998.

 "Saddam calculates he is secure from military attack. The threat of
force
meant something  in the 1990s, now the whole political climate has
changed."