Tomorrow is the anniversary of
Saddam Hussein's invasion of
Kuwait. Iraq is still paying the price,
and it is rising
Special report: Iraq
Ewen MacAskill, Brian Whitaker and
Jonathan Steele, Guardian Unlimited
Tuesday August 1, 2000
Saddam Hussein began the Gulf war 10
years ago tomorrow when he launched his
forces across the desert into Kuwait.
Officially, the war ended seven months
later with the liberation of Kuwait. Yet last
week British and US planes were in action
over northern and southern Iraq, as they
have been for the past year and were the
year before that.
"There is a sortie going on at the moment
in the north and there is an engagement,"
a British commander said last week,
describing how Iraqi anti-aircraft batteries
locked on to a British jet.
To him it was a routine day, one of many
in a conflict which is under-reported,
mainly because Saudi Arabia and Kuwait,
which provide the bases, do not want too
much attention drawn to it.
Iraq claims that more than 300 civilians
were killed in raids in the past two years.
The US and Britain, which send planes
over Iraq on average every second day,
insist that most of those listed as civilians
were soldiers manning anti-aircraft
weapons.
British and US ships are also in the Gulf,
trying - largely unsuccessfully - to police
the embargo imposed on Iraq, the
toughest sanctions regime in history.
What has been achieved by 10 years of
war and sanctions? President Saddam,
63, is still in power, presiding over a police
state with one of the worst human rights
records in the world.
The 30-country coalition raised against
him is falling apart as the Gulf states and
others normalise their relations with Iraq.
The sanctions are increasingly difficult to
maintain. Iraq's borders with Jordan,
Syria, Turkey and Iran are porous. Trade
is increasing. Eighty countries plan to
attend the Baghdad trade fair in
November.
Because of the sanctions' impact on
civilians, the US and Britain face moral
disapproval from a growing alliance of
organisations as diverse as the Italian
parliament and the Church of England.
To those with money, just about anything
is available in Baghdad's shops. The rest
of Iraqi society is struggling, caught
between President Saddam's tyranny and
the implacable attitude of the US and
Britain. Education is suffering as children
drop out in droves. Income has been
slashed. Iraq, which once boasted one of
the best health services in the Middle
East, now has one of the worst.
Children have suffered disproportionately.
Unesco estimates that half a million
children have died in the past 10 years,
partly as a result of malnutrition, poor
sanitation and lack of medical services.
The sanctions have left Iraq's
infrastructure in an "appalling" state, the
programme director for Save the Children
in northern Iraq, Peter Maxwell, said.
"It is questionable whether the successful
implementation of the UN's humanitarian
programme should be made so dependent
upon progress made in military and
security matters."
Church of England representatives were
horrified by social conditions in Iraq. In a
report last month they suggested that the
UN should aim the arms embargo and
financial sanctions at the ruling elite.
"Such an alternative might be more
effective than the current sanctions policy,
which is unlikely to yield further political
dividend without creating further suffering."
Publicly the US, the main proponent of
sanctions, remains determined to put
President Saddam and his cronies on trial
for war crimes. But behind the rhetoric a
change is taking place. Bill Clinton and
those around him no longer insist that
sanctions cannot be lifted until President
Saddam has gone.
Iraq's moment of truth, when it will show
whether it will cooperate with the new
team of UN weapons inspectors and get
the sanctions suspended, is almost at
hand, according to Hans Blix, the team's
Swedish chairman. If it agrees to meet
him,the conflict may be resolved. If it
refuses, there will be another standoff with
the UN.
"Towards the end of August we should be
ready to open up in Iraq," Mr Blix told the
Guardian. "It is not in our mandate to
harass, humiliate or provoke Iraq, and we
shall not do that."
Iraq complained that the previous team
(Unscom) had an open agenda which
meant that sanctions would never be
lifted. Mr Blix said: "We want to be firm
but correct. We have given Iraq a marked
trail towards suspension, so there's a path
they can follow."
The new team is not dominated by the
west. "The complaint that Unscom was
lopsided in a western way is correct," Mr
Blix said. Previous inspectors were not
recruited by the UN, as the new team is,
but seconded by their governments, and
western states were more generous.
The new team is also determined to avoid
the accusation that it is a tool of western
intelligence or Iraqi defectors. Iraq made
this claim against Scott Ritter, an
American member of Unscom. "We will
want to examine everything with a critical
eye, because there is almost as much
disinformation as there is information," Mr
Blix said. "Unscom had people with
information from various groups and
different channels. It's clear Ritter had
channels directly, and I don't want to
accept any of that. I want that to be under
control."
Mr Blix is a former director of the
International Atomic Energy Agency, with
long experience of checking nuclear
safeguards in closed societies.
"They [Iraqis] may believe sanctions will
crumble . . . Many ministers have been
visiting Baghdad and sympathising; but I
have not seen any of them suggesting
there should be a breach of sanctions."
But the Iraqi deputy prime minister Tariq
Aziz showed no sign of conciliation when
visiting Moscow last week.
"There is nothing new regarding [UN]
resolution 1284, [which set up the new
team], which is still unacceptable
because it does not provide any solution
to the Iraqi cause."
Despite the public intransigence on both
sides, there is a 50-50 chance of a deal.
In a significant change of tone, the British
foreign minister Peter Hain provided the
kind of assurances that those trying to
achieve a deal have been looking for.
"Baghdad has to understand we are
serious about wanting sanctions
suspended, and all that is required is for
the Iraq government to allow Blix's team
in," Mr Hain said.
When that happened, details of how the
suspension of sanctions might be
triggered could be discussed with the
Iraqis.
He denied that US-British policy towards
Iraq had been a failure. "The biggest
achievement of the strategy is to contain
Saddam Hussein. That is a very
significant one. He has not invaded any
country in the last 10 years."
Meanwhile, the Gulf states are
re-establishing diplomatic relations with
Baghdad. Four - Bahrain, Oman, Qatar
and the United Arab Emirates - have done
so this year.
If a diplomatic compromise can be agreed
and sanctions are lifted, Iraq, once one of
the most economically successful
countries, will take a long time to recover.
Professor Anoush Ehteshami, director of
Middle East studies at Durham University,
said: "You can rebuild the infrastructure in
20 years or so, but not the people."
Turbulent decade
1990
Aug 2 Iraq invades Kuwait
Aug 6 UN imposes sanctions
1991
Jan 16 US-led coalition launches air war
against Iraq
Feb 26 Allies retake Kuwait
Feb 28 Ceasefire announced
1992
Aug 27 "No-fly" zone imposed over
southern Iraq
1993
Jan 7 Allies attack missile sites and
nuclear facility
1994
Nov 10 Saddam fully recognises Kuwait
sovereignty
1996
Sep 4 Bill Clinton extends no-fly zone to
Baghdad suburbs
Nov 25 Iraq agrees oil-for-food deal with
UN
1997
Nov 13-14 Iraq expels US members of UN
arms inspectorate. UN withdraws all
inspectors in protest. US and Britain build
up Gulf forces
Nov 20-21 Inspectors allowed back. Iraqis
have destroyed equipment
1998
Jun 24 Chief arms inspector Richard
Butler says Iraq put VX nerve gas in
warheads
Aug 4-20 Butler refuses to certify Iraq's
weapons of mass destruction destroyed
Dec 16-19 Air strikes by US and Britain
begin
1999
Jan 6 Butler denies that his team spied
for US. Colleague Scott Ritter claims US
used information compiled by UN
• Research: Ian Bucknell, Guardian R&I