Reports of Iraqi Missile Threat Are Greatly Exaggerated

     Reports of Iraqi Missile Threat Are Greatly Exaggerated
     by Scott Ritter
     Wednesday, September 14, 2000
     San Francisco Chronicle

URL: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2000/09/14/ED88802.DTL

     THE PENTAGON'S DECISION to place a Patriot missile battery on a heightened
     state of alert for deployment to Israel underscores the effort by the United States and
     others to create the perception of an imminent threat from an Iraqi ballistic missile. It
     doesn't seem to matter to the Pentagon that the Israeli Prime Minister himself downplays
     the Iraqi missile threat as nonexistent.

     In the nearly 20 months since U.N. weapons inspectors were last on the job in Iraq,
     there has been no shortage of speculation on what has transpired inside Iraq's weapons
     factories. Richard Butler, the former executive chairman of the now-defunct United
     Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM), has been at the forefront of those charging
     that Iraq is actively rearming.

     One of Ambassador Butler's favorite themes has been that ``Saddam Hussein is back in
     the business of making long-range missiles.'' The Pentagon's announcement appears
     perfectly constructed to play along with this theme.

     This is not the first time the United States has hyped an ``imminent'' threat from Iraqi
     missiles. This past summer, the CIA reported that its satellites picked up evidence that
     Iraq had resumed flight testing of the Al-Samoud missile. Even though the Al-Samoud
     has a range of less than 150 kilometers and is permitted under U.N. resolutions, the
     CIA highlighted these tests as proof that Iraq had more nefarious plans for long-range
     missiles.

     The United States has not been alone in ``exposing'' the threat from Baghdad. In a rare
     public statement earlier this month, the German Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND)
     Intelligence Service confirmed a report that its agents had located a ``secret Iraqi missile
     factory near Baghdad,'' the Al Mamoun factory, which produces solid- fuel missiles
     known as the Ababil-100.

     Although the Ababil-100, like the Al-Samoud, possesses a range less than 150
     kilometers, the BND cited this latest discovery as clear evidence that Saddam Hussein
     has continued to build up his arsenal.

Given that inspectors have not been on the job for some time now, such information, on
the surface, would seem compelling. But the reality is much different.

     Contrary to the BND report, the Al-Mamoun factory was well known to UNSCOM
     missile inspectors. Like the rest of the Iraqi weapons production infrastruc ture, the Al
     Mamoun factory had been under continuous monitoring by

     UNSCOM since 1993. The ``secret'' Ababil-100 missile project had in fact been
     declared to UNSCOM by Iraq in the spring of 1998. UNSCOM inspectors never felt
     that the Ababil-100 missile represented anything close to a viable project, let alone the
     potential threat to German cities that the BND report made it out to be.

     Why would the Germans publish such a report at this time? The answer lies in the
     current effort by UNSCOM's successor organization, the United Nations Monitoring,
     Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) to send inspectors back into
     Iraq. Iraq has made it clear that it rejects such inspections, and the Security Council is
     bracing itself for yet another confrontation. A report such as the one put out by the
     BND will play a prominent role in any discussion concerning Iraq's refusal to accept the
     UNMOVIC inspectors, and it closely parallels the CIA reports of the past summer and
     complements the recent Pentagon announcement on the Patriot missiles.

     Given the lack of substance behind the reports from the CIA, BND and the Pentagon,
     one couldn't help but conclude that these reports are part of an overall cam paign of
     disinformation designed to continue demonizing and isolating Iraq. Such disinformation
     campaigns have long been associated with the effort to contain Iraq through the
     continued economic sanctions. In this regard, the key issue isn't the truth about Iraq's
     weapons of mass destruction, but rather the perception, however incorrect, of the threat
     such weapons pose in the hands of Iraq.

     The continuation of economic sanctions, which have resulted in the deaths of some 1.5
     million innocent Iraqi civilians, hinges on the issue of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.
     It is high time that this issue be debated on the basis of fact, not fiction.

     By spreading such misleading and inaccurate reports, the United States and Germany
     have thrown away the credibility that comes by embracing the truth, and instead have
     surrounded themselves with a bodyguard of lies. Given the enormity of the tragedy
     unfolding in Iraq today, the citizens of these two great democracies deserve, and should
     demand, better.

Scott Ritter, the author of ``Endgame'' (Simon & Schuster, 1999), was a U.N.
weapons inspector in Iraq.