The stage is set for war

   The decision by the French and Russian governments to begin flights to
   Iraq
   may begin the unraveling of the UN sanctions regime over Iraq. This
   challenge
   to US led UN sanctions policy is not motivated by humanitarian
   altruism on
   the part of these nations. Last December, China, France and Russia
   failed to
   use their Security Council veto to sink the discredited UN Security
   Council
   sanctions. Russia and France, in this case are motivated by "the
   mechanism of
   the market." With an ongoing international panic surrounding oil, the
   lucrative plum of Iraq could not sit out there for the plucking
   forever. This
   last week the French and Russians made their move. It would be very
   naive on
   our part to assume the US will sit back and allow its political,
   military and
   economic position to be eroded in this region.

   The US has thrown its military might into the siege of Iraq. Iraq has
   been
   unable to break the stranglehold on its airspace. Not a single jet has
   been
   downed or damaged after tens of thousands of over flights and hundreds
   of
   bombings. This summer US warships made a public display of
   interdicting
   commercial shipping suspected of trading with Iraq. Billions of
   dollars of
   the latest weaponry has been sold to Iraq's neighbors. The permanent
   US naval
   presence in the Gulf is now supplemented with permanent US bases in
   Saudi
   Arabia. Despite this overwhelming military superiority the US still
   claims
   Iraq poses a threat to the region.

   The resumption of international air service could pose a direct
   challenge to
   British and US control of Iraqi airspace through the "no-fly-zones."
   To
   continue the airwar on Iraq in between commercial flights would be
   unthinkable even for the wizards in the Pentagon. No adult in the
   Persian
   Gulf region has forgotten the shooting down of a civilian airliner
   destined
   for Iran by the US Navy. (This was the First Gulf War, when the US was

   militarily allied with Iraq.)

   Will the French and Russians stick with it? In the past these nations
   have
   made noises against the sanctions, but in the end supported US policy.
   If the
   new Russian leadership does not back down tensions could escalate.
   Russian
   trade with Iraq implies a US war with Iraq and Russia.

   The US rulers have to consider complex relationship of forces in
   deciding how
   to proceed. If they choose military escalation they will not be
   hampered by
   an educated public at home. The US press in recent weeks has promoted
   an
   ever-increasing rhetoric for war with Iraq. The Philadelphia Inquirer,
   this
   Saturday, September 23, 00 page three article reads "Iraqi leader seen
   as
   targeting US; Observers say Saddam Hussein is attempting to influence
   oil
   markets to hurt the American economy." This is classic oil embargo
   hysteria
   from the early seventies. We Americans are once again helpless victims
   of the
   rapacious Arabs (Sheiks then, Saddam now). This follows numerous
   articles in
   the preceding weeks citing Iraq's refusal to cooperate with the UN,
   implied
   threats to Kuwait, unsubstantiated accusations of Iraq possessing
   weapons,
   etc.

   The stage is set for war.

   Robert Allen
   Campaign to End the Sanctions
   5 Awbury Rd.
   Philadelphia Pa 19138