For embargo against Iraq, a 'beginning of the end'

                 The quickening pace of relief flights signals an erosion of the
                 sanctions - and a desire for Iraqi oil.

                 By Barbara Demick
                 INQUIRER STAFF WRITER

                 JERUSALEM - Planeload by planeload, the embargo against Iraq appears to be
                 crumbling.

                 French, Russian and Jordanian humanitarian delegations have flown into Baghdad
                 in recent days, flouting the U.N. embargo imposed against Iraq after its invasion of
                 Kuwait 10 years ago.

                 In what could be a snowballing effect, Yemen's foreign minister said yesterday he
                 would head a delegation on a flight to Baghdad today, and Russia, France and
                 Iceland have flights scheduled for the next few days. Syria, Switzerland and Italy
                 are also said to be considering flights, according to one activist.

                 Although their organizers say they are in technical compliance with the law, the
                 flights are a clear challenge to the United States, the leading proponent of the
                 embargo, in this sensitive pre-election season. Cynically enough, they also come at
                 a time when many countries, stung by high fuel prices, are aching for oil-rich Iraq
                 to open up for business as usual.

                 The State Department has roundly condemned the flights as violations of the
                 sanctions law. Military analysts in Israel said that the sanctions had been eroding
                 for several years but that the audacity of recent moves was a sign of American
                 weakness in the election season.

                 "The timing is clear. Clinton has no teeth. The Americans are in a twilight period,"
                 said Ephraim Inbar, a national-security expert at Bar-Ilan University in Tel Aviv.

                 On Wednesday, Jordan became the first Arab country to join the challenge, flying
                 in relief supplies along with 77 luminaries, among them government ministers. That
                 followed a charter flight from Paris a week ago that was organized privately by
                 anti-sanctions activists but had the backing of the French government.

                 Russia has sent in three flights in the last two months, and Aeroflot, the national
                 carrier, announced this week that it was in negotiations with Iraqi Airways about
                 starting regular commercial service between Moscow and Baghdad.

                 "I can't say this is the end of the embargo - you would have to ask [Secretary of
                 State] Madeleine Albright about that, but we are hoping this puts an end to the
                 genocide going on in Iraq," said Jean-Marie Benjamin, a priest who was one of
                 the organizers of the Paris flight.

                 The Paris flight carried 60 people, mostly artists and athletes who were
                 performing at a cultural festival in the ancient city of Babylon. A flight today from
                 Paris' Charles de Gaulle airport is planned with 120 passengers - including
                 parliamentarians from England, the Netherlands, Italy and Switzerland.

                 Benjamin said the flights were started after lawyers, researching the embargo,
                 decided there was nothing in the law to prohibit such flights, as long as the United
                 Nations was notified in advance.

                 'Sanctions fatigue'

                 In New York, a U.N. official who asked not to be named said that there had
                 been notification but that the organizers had not bothered to wait for approval. He
                 acknowledged, however, that the wording was vague enough to allow for honest
                 disagreement about what was permissible.

                 "This is not exactly sanctions-busting," the official said. "They are respecting the
                 letter of the law as they read it. . . . On the other hand, there is a sanctions fatigue.
                 People want to move the process, and there is a real effort on by the French and
                 Russian to break this thing open."

                 Iraq has been predictably enthusiastic about the flights, after 10 years of
                 international isolation. Since the gulf war, planes have rarely landed in Baghdad
                 and only after the painstaking process of obtaining U.N. approval. Almost all
                 visitors to the country have been forced to take the 10-hour trek overland through
                 the desert from Amman, Jordan.

                 "It is the beginning of the collapse of the sanctions," Iraqi's deputy prime minister,
                 Tarik Aziz, told reporters in Baghdad upon greeting the Jordanian plane. "Only
                 American government arrogance and blackmail are keeping the sanctions . . . but
                 those American positions have become so outrageous that people are fed up with
                 them."

                 The flights to Iraq are causing some concern in Israel, which was attacked by
                 Iraqi Scud missiles during the gulf war.

                 Daring the West?

                 Inbar, the national-security expert, said it was unfortunate that the sanctions
                 should be eased at a time when Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is thought to be
                 making a nuisance of himself again.

                 Almost daring the West to retaliate, Iraq has made a number of provocative
                 moves in recent weeks. It has accused Kuwait of stealing oil and has threatened
                 the Kurds. Earlier this month, it flew a fighter jet into Saudi airspace in defiance of
                 a no-fly zone. Iraq has refused to allow U.N. arms inspectors into the country and
                 has denied entry even to independent experts who want to monitor the impact of
                 sanctions, which are blamed for severe malnutrition in as many as 20 percent of
                 Iraqi children.

                 No doubt, the concern about the humanitarian crisis in Iraqi is genuine. But there
                 is also a less altruistic motive for opponents of the sanctions - Iraq's vast oil
                 reserves, believed to be second only to those of Saudi Arabia.

                 According to oil-industry newsletters, Total Fina Elf, the giant French energy
                 concern, has been working in Iraq for several years, waiting for sanctions to lift.
                 Russia and Belarus recently signed a development agreement for a field in
                 southern Iraq, contingent also on the lifting of sanctions.

                 Under a U.N.-administered oil-for-food program, Iraq now sells about $10 billion
                 worth of oil annually - including about $4.7 billion worth to the United States over
                 the last 12 months - but its earnings are reduced to pay reparations to Kuwait for
                 the invasion.

                 "One of Iraq's strategies is to keep the price of oil up," said Richard Bottomley, a
                 Middle East oil analyst with the IHS Energy Group in London. "Obviously,
                 Saddam is very isolated. One of the few ways he can bloody the nose of NATO
                 and the Western world is through the price of oil."

                 For Arab countries, the lifting of the embargo against Iraq could open up a large
                 new market for trade at a time when economies are flagging.

                 Most Arab countries, even those who joined with the United States and Britain in
                 the coalition against Iraq, have long called for the lifting of sanctions. Jordan,
                 which was not in the coalition, had been a major trading partner with Iraq before
                 the war and has been most vocal in the campaign to lift sanctions.

                 "Inshallah [God willing]," said Kamal Abu Jabar, former Jordanian foreign
                 minister. "This is the beginning of the end of the sanctions. It has been 10 years.
                 Now people are saying, this is enough."
 

                 Barbara Demick's e-mail address is foreign@phillynews.com