Mark the date above in history!

              Today a Jordanian airliner will be the first Arab plane to break the
              air embargo on Iraq.  Around noon local time in Amman, a Royal
              Jordanian airliner will take off towards Saddam’s International Airport
              in Baghdad.  Aboard will be somewhere between seventy to one hundred
              Jordanian officials, trade unionists, athletes, doctors, and
              businessmen.

              The United Nations has been NOTIFIED of the trip.

              In the past, Jordan had submitted several requests to run regular
              flights between Baghdad and Amman, but the requests were denied.  And
              this is in spite of the fact that civilian air travel in and out of
              Iraq does not constitute a violation of the embargo (see previous
              issues of the Free Arab Voice for details on that issue).

              On the tenth of October, another Jordanian flight to Baghdad is planned
              by the Union of Professional Associations in Jordan in cahoots with
              Arab trade unionists.   But until the recent past, efforts by the Union
              of Professional Associations to fly a plane to Baghdad has been opposed
              by the Jordanian regime.

              On the other hand, the Syrian Minister of Industry, Ahmad Al Hammou,
              announced yesterday in Damascus that a Syrian Arab Airliner might be
              going to Saddam’s International Airport soon.  He said that Syrians
              have signed a great deal of contracts with Iraq, and the issue is being
              mulled over right now in official circles.

              Since its inauguration on the seventeenth of August this year, Saddam’s
              International Airport received two Russian flights, and one French
              flight less than a week ago.  In the meantime, India has announced that
              it might be sending soon a civilian plane to Baghdad too.

              An Analysis of the Official Jordanian Move
              ================================

              It is obvious then that the air embargo on Iraq is crumbling.  What is
              interesting though, is the official Jordanian dash to be the first Arab
              regime to break the air travel ban in direct defiance of the dictates
              of the United States, the largest donor of financial aid to Jordan.

              It is not surprising that the Jordanian people would be totally in
              favor of lifting the embargo as well as the siege on Iraq.  Jordanians
              of different leanings have been some of the most ardent supporters of
              lifting the siege, but the regime has hitherto turned a deaf ear to
              popular demands to break the siege.  Today, the popularity of the
              Jordanian regime soars high on the street just as the Royal Jordanian
              Airliner prepares to fly the friendly skies towards Baghdad.  In fact,
              opposition parties representing the colors of most of the political
              spectrum are showering the regime with praise for the bold step.

              What has prompted the daring official Jordanian move at a time when
              larger Arab states like Egypt and Syria have balked?

              There is no question that popular support is one of the primary
              benefits the government of the newly appointed Prime Minister Abul
              Raghib will reap from breaking the siege.  But this is not the main
              reason for the official Jordanian move, for Arab regimes rarely put the
              interests and the feelings of their people at the top of their agenda.
              At the top of their agenda is the preservation of the strategic
              interests of the Arab regime in question, and this was no exception.
              Infrequently though, the best interests of the Arab regime and its
              people coincide.  Flying a civilian flight from Amman to Baghdad was a
              case in point.

              In the eighties, Iraq was the largest export market for Jordanian
              products.  Jordanians had invested close to two billion dollars in
              industry and infrastructure designed to serve the Iraqi market.  With
              the imposition of the siege on Iraq, the Jordanian economy suffered
              greatly.  But as the Jordanian regime partook in implementing the siege
              on Iraq, it opened up to “Israel”, and undertook a harsh prescription,
              an ‘Economic Adjustment Package’, that was administered under the
              auspices of the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund
              (IMF).

              The promise that peace with “Israel” will bring prosperity never
              materialized.  The much more advanced and shielded “Israeli” economy
              was never a substitute for the Iraqi market and was never meant to be.
              The opposite in fact was true.

              The promise of a huge influx of foreign direct investment as a result
              of abiding by the painful prescriptions of the IMF and the WB never
              materialized either.  Those interested in investing in the Arab region
              found larger markets and better opportunities in Egypt, the United Arab
              Emirates, and Saudi Arabia.  In fact, more private investment capital
              left Jordan in the last five years or so than went in.

              In the meantime, Jordan was carrying a heavy international debt
              totaling about 114% of its Gross Domestic Product.  Servicing that debt
              came out of heavy taxes levied on an already lethargic Jordanian
              economy.  Still, the principal barely went down a hundred million
              dollars, out of a humungous sum of about eight billion owed, and mainly
              as a result of recent improvement in the exchange rate with major
              European currencies.

              Now the surge in oil prices came, and that was the straw that broke the
              camel’s back.  Jordan is not an oil-producing country.  If it had to
              pay international prices for all the oil it consumes, it would go broke
              in a month.  But Iraq was aware of that it seems, and therefore, in the
              midst of the official Jordanian implementation of the siege on Iraq,
              Iraq kept on giving about half of the oil Jordan needs totally FOR
              FREE.  Years went by, and the Iraqi government kept on doing this
              without flinching.

              The recent increase in oil prices put Iraq in the position to suffocate
              the fragile Jordanian economy.  Should Iraq choose to withhold the free
              shipments of oil, which Iraq really didn’t have to just give away when
              it could have sold them for much higher prices on the international
              (black) market, the Jordanian economy would have gone to hell in a
              splash.  There was simply too much to lose and too much to gain.  THE
              STABILITY OF THE REGIME WAS IN THE BALANCE.  Hence, it seemed better
              for the Jordanian regime to score points with Iraq and with Jordanians
              for being the first Arab regime to break the siege, than to abide
              doggedly by an embargo that looks like it’s tumbling down, and that’s
              killing the Jordanian economy even more than the Iraqi’s.  Thus, the
              Jordanian government took the initiative and seized the chance.

              At least in this case, the interests of this Arab regime do not
              conflict with those of the Arab people

              The Free Arab Voice