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John B. Kennett of 202-5250 Rupert St. Vancouver B.C. V5R-2J9 Canada.
Phone. 604-439-2007 e-mail: john-b-kennett@telus.net.

diary:


Yen prices are given in terms of US$. In buying or selling a currency one is actually buying or selling one currency against another. The Yen moves inversely to the US$. In trading the Yen one would be well advised to keep an eye on the US$ index.

Analysis Japanese Yen December 02 Contract


Trade:

Close long positions.

Short term Trend

Up...subject to change.

Long Term Trend

Down.

Market:

Choppy...overbought.
11/04 Market is overbought...downward pressure is developing.
Trader: Close long positions...wait for a short sell signal.
10/30
The market is appproaching overbought levels. The rally is showing signs of weakening. The downtrend should continue.
Trader: Wait.
10/28
The market is showing some strength. The short-term trend has turned up.
Trader: Expect a choppy market... wait for an indication as to whether the rally will run out of steam or will be followed by a major trend change.
10/25
The market is in a short-term rally. Although still down the trend has weakened. The next day or so will show whether support will hold at this level.
Trader: Hold off until trend is confirmed.
10/22
Expect upward pressure to develop. The market could rally.
Trader: Wait for a signal.
10/18
Market trend is still down. Prices could drop a bit further before finding support.
Trader: Trader considers the target set on 07/30 of +or- .7950 has been reached. Be prepared for support and upward pressure to develop soon.
10/17
The downtrend has strengthened...the market closed at .8033 with a low of .8012 in today's trading...more lows are possible. Expect strong support between .7950 and.8000 at which point prices could rally. It remains to be seen whether prices will eventually penetrate .7950 to the down side.
Trader: Those of you who wish to stay in the market at this time keep in touch with the market and monitor closely. Although lower prices are expected, keep your stoploss in at a comfortable distance. Prices are entering oversold territory. An important support level is not far off.
10/16
Market remains choppy. Prices could drop a bit further before giving a strong indication as to direction.
Trader: Trader pulled out at .8040. With close monitoring a few points could be gained. Best cover shorts however and stay out until a stronger signal is received.
10/15
The market is showing some weakness. Prices should continue to decline for a while.
Trader: Trader entered the market again at .8070 (see trade log).
10/11
The next day or two will show whether prices will find support at this level or drop further. The market is overbought and choppy. The downtrend is subject to change.
Trader: Stay on the sidelines for now. Next day or two should show whether the support at around.8048+ will hold.
10/09
Market has encountered support at around .8048. The downtrend may be in the process of changing.
Trader: Trader was stopped out at .8100 (see trade log).Liquidate shorts and stay out.
10/07
Prices broke below .8100 in today's trading with a close of .8078. Prices should continue to decline for a while. In the face of todays trading one would not have sold a put.
Trader: Trader sold two December contracts at .8078.
10/04
The market is inconclusive. The downtrend may be in the process of changing. Expect support at around .8100; enter short on a break below this level. On the up side expect resistance at around .8300; enter long on a break above this point.
Trader: Stay out for now. If prepared to monitor the market closely consider selling a call above .8300 and a put below .8100 early Monday morning and be prepared to buy back one of them should the market break in its direction.
09/30
Market is showing some strength. Look for a choppy market.
Trader: Stay out for now.
09/27
The downtrend has weakened and could possibly reverse. Look for a choppy market.
Trader: Stay out and enjoy the weekend. Wait for confirmation as to direction before reentering the market.
09/25
Market momentum has slowed. There could be a short-term rally. The market is still classified as a bear market. Both trends are down. Indications are that the downtrend will continue.
Trader: Wait for the market to indicate a direction. Should the rally run out of steam and prices drop again, enter on a break below .8100 when the downtrend continues.
09/23
The downtrend should continue. The market is oversold but could become more so as prices drop.
Trader: Trader closed two short positions @ .8090 today (see trade log). Prices should continue to drop. Keep stops in at a comfortable distance in view of an oversold market.
09/20
Lower prices are quite possible. Expect the downtrend to continue.
Trader: Trader sold 2 contracts @ .8185-hold short positions.
09/18
We are still in a bear market. While there may be a short-term rally over the next day or two, all indications are that the downtrend will continue.
Trader: Trader was stopped out @ .8238 on the .8300 short positions (09/13 to 09/16-see trade log). Wait until the downtrend continues and enter short on a close below .8200
09/17
The market is oversold and showing some strength. There could be a mild rally but the downtrend should continue. Look for greater oversold levels and lower prices to come. A further decline from this level is a strong possibility.
Trader: Hold short positions but keep your stop-loss at a comfortable distance. Trader will indicate when it is time to cover shorts. Since much of the action could be on the after hours market, keep in touch with the night desk.
09/16
The down-trending market should continue-be prepared for a possible short-term rally as prices consolidate. Lower prices are expected.
Trader: Closed short positions @ .8230 (see trade log) will enter again around .8200-check the GlobeX tonight.
09/13
Price has droped below the first support level at .8320 and has reached the second at .8250. The market is oversold but may become more oversold as price drops. Be prepared for a short term rally along the way.
Trader: Trader sold two contracts at .8300 today. Refer to 08/06-should price penetrate the next support level (.8250) a target of .7950 will be set with an entry point at .8200 at which time place further short positions. Good luck.
09/12
The market has reached oversold levels. There may be a market rally.
Trader: Be prepared to exit the market. Now is a good time to liquidate long puts.
09/11
The Yen closed at .8348 and was up 11 on the Globex at 7:00 PM (PST). The prices have reached the support level at around .8325- there could be a temporary up move. The market is still classified as a bull market but with both trends turning down.
Trader: Those already in the market: hold short contracts and long puts. Place stop-loss orders and wait for a direction to establish itself.
09/10
Prices have broken out to the down side (down 72 in today's trading). With both long-term and short-term trends turning down, over all prices should continue to decline for a while. Look for support at .8320 and .8250.
Trader: Liquidate all long positions including short puts. There may be a temporary up move as the market finds a balance. Soon as the downtrend stabailizes look for a suitable point to enter short. Trader will provide an entry point shortly.
09/09
We are trading in the December contract now. Hold to Friday's analysis.

Analysis Japanese Yen September 02 contract.


09/06-Afternoon.
A decline from current levels is quite possible. Points to mark are: down .8400-.8320-.8250 and up .8550-.8610-.8700. For December add 30 points.
09/06-Special by Trader: Recapping market conditions this morning, the market has been seen to be moving sideways with lower highs and higher lows, the assumption is therefor that a breakout is due. Buying calls or puts at a time of low volatility is not recommended. A short strangle is the more desirable. For a modest gain sell the 89 call and the 82 put basis December (to increase the risk come one notch further in both sides). If volatility does not increase both options would payoff. Monitor the market closely with these positions open and be prepared to buy back one of them should a breakout occur. A lot depends on how well you know and how much you trust your broker.
Additionally place MIT (Market If Touched-one cancels the other) orders 100-150 points above and below the last significant high and low respectively (entry points will be forthcoming). It will be noticed that December trades are mentioned. Since September settlement time is drawing near it is better to be trading the December Contract.
Have a good weekend.
09/05
The market is actually moving sideways. A breakout from this direction is due within a week or so. See bulletin board for options.
Trader: Wait for the move to start. A signal will be given.
09/04
The uncertainty in the market requires trading on a day basis. While the indicators are still showing long it is not far from being overbought.
Trader:When in doubt stay out.
09/03
The market is approaching overbought levels but showing some strength. Prices should continue to rise for a while.
Trader: A choppy market calls for close scrutiny. Those contemplating a long trade should be prepared to follow overnight developments.
09/02
The Yen was up on the Globex in over-night trading. Positions should have been closed for the holiday weekend.
Trader: Will resume on close Tuesday 09/03. Enjoy the holiday.
08/30Market has given bearish signals, a decline is possible.
Trader: Close long positions and wait.
08/29
We are in a choppy market until the short-term trend turns up in support of a bull market, or the long-term trend turns down indicating a bear market.
Trader: Those still in the market watch prices closely.
08/27
Market is making a short-term rally, but will remain choppy.
Trader: will wait this one out. Those of you who are long check the Globex tonight.
08/26
Market was quiet today. Direction will become evident shortly.
Trader: Be patient-wait for a signal.
08/23
Uncertain market-best be on sidelines
Trader: Close short positions and wait. Bought one contract today at .8367 to close the open short-See trade log.
08/22
Prices were down 98 in today's trading closing at .8354 with a high of .8451 and a low of .8342. The expected decline materialized through the trading day. Check the Globex tonight to confirm further decline.
Trader: One contract was sold today at .8439 (see trade log).
08/20
Prices were down again in today's trading closing at .8434. The next day or so will show whether prices will hold at around the .8400 level or decline further. Both trends as of now are subject to reversal.
Trader: Stay out another day. Follow prices tonight and intra-day tomorrow.
08/19
Market is somewhat overbought, both trends are weakening-expect a decline next day or two. Market was down 69 in today's trading, closing at .8448 with a low of .8434. Next support levels at .8400 and .8340- .8300.
Trader: Close long positions and be prepared to enter short soon.
08/16
Some downward pressure could be developing. Indicator is still long.
Trader: Those of you who are long check the Globex tonight and look for a suitable point to exit should prices decline. This advice also holds for Monday's open.
08/15
Market will remain choppy approaching overbough levels. Indicators are long.
Trader:To trade the market on a very short-term basis would require much closer monitoring (possibly including some intra-day cheks) than relying only on a nightly close as reported here, which favours trading a longer term trend. Hold long positions but be aware that we are in a choppy situation.
08/13
The short-term trend has turned up. The market is showing some strength. This may only be a short-term rally. Look for confirmation tomorrow.
Trader:Wait until tomorrow for a signal.
08/09
A short-term rally is possible.
Trader:Close short positions. Stay out.
08/07
Yesterday's short trade @ .8320 should not have been placed contrary to Trader's advice. It could have been removed at a small loss or even a small gain, however it should be an interesting study to follow this trade.
08/06
The market is showing signs of a long-term trend reversal. As the market is oversold there could be a short-term rally within the next few days.
Trader:Wait for a long-term trend change before setting a target of .7950. Those who are short as of today be prepared for a short-term rally. A contract was sold today at .8320 (short-term only, see trade log).
08/01
Choppy market ahead.
index trade log trader's classroom bulletin board
07/31
Market is over-sold. A rally is possible.
07/30
The short-term trend is DOWN. Market is indicating a possible reversal of the long-term trend. Prices are, however, approaching over-sold levels. Those of you who are short be prepared to close short positions soon. We may see a rally in the next day or so. Look for support around .8300-.8340, after which our target will be .7950, meanwhile prices may test .8400-.8450 again.
Trader: Those who are short hold short positions until a close signal. Others stay out. Don't sell an over-sold market. A good short-selling opportunity may be coming up soon.
07/26
The Yen has broken through the support level at .8500 and was down 156 in today's trading. The expected decline was evident on the open. The short-term trend has turned DOWN. Expect a choppy market as it signals a change in direction. Indications are that we are entering a bear trend. Confirmation in a day or two.
Trader: Those of you who followed Trader's advice were safely out of the market and have not been caught by the drop. A good short- selling opportunity may be developing. Confirmation next week. Have a good week-end.
07/24
The Yen has met with resistance at .8700 and found support at .8500 with the short-term trend alternating between UP and DOWN. The long-term trend is weakening. The next few days will tell whether prices will hold at this level or not.
Trader:Stay on the sidelines.
07/23
The anticipated drop has materialized. The Yen was down over 100 points today. The UP trend is weakening. A decline is indicated. Choppy market ahead.
Trader:Stay out until the market gives a clear indication as to direction.
07/22
On Monday's close the Yen is showing a little weakness. Since both trends are still up and that there is no confirmation of a reversal or a top yet, this may be a consolidation period.
Trader:Stay out for now and wait. Enter long above .8690 and exit on a break below .8550.
07/19
On Friday's close the Yen is still showing strength. Prices are up on the GlobeX. Go to trade log for links.
Trader:Enjoy the week-end. Start again Monday morning.
07/18
The up-trend has weakened and is subject to reversal.
Trader:Liquidate long positions, stay out and wait.
07/16
Since the market is over-bought we may see a short-term drop. The UP trend is healthy and should continue. Move stop-loss up to around .8550 or decide where you would like to exit in the event of a decline.
Trader:As both long and short-term trends are UP hold long positions but be prepared for a drop should it occur.
07/15
In discussing trends short-term is taken over 9-10 days; long term 45-50 days. Day traders are in and out the same day and weekly traders, for the purposes of this page, are in and out the a week or two. Anything over 50 days may be considered to be very long-term, monthly or seasonal trends.
Both long and short-term trends are still UP and the market is classified as bullish. The market is still overbought and as such a short-term pull-back is possible. There is no indication of a top yet.
Trader:Continue to hold long positions. Those who have been selling puts may have done so in increments as with the calls and contracts, buying on dips. Resistance at .8690-.8700 and again at .8880-.8890.
07/09
Both trends are UP. Market is strong.
Trader: Positions should be long. Keep in mind that the market is overbought. Move stop- loss up to betwen .8400 and .8430. The short puts should be paying off well.
07/08
Back from holidays. The market is very strong as of Monday's close and is still long. Both trends are UP. The market is over-bought but will probally continue to be more so since there is no indication of a top yet.
Trader: Continue to hold long positions in the face of a strong market. Look to exit the market at a drop somewhere below .8400 should a top be indicated. Those of you who have been short puts over the past month have done very well.

Start Analysis Japanese Yen September 02 contract.


Analysis Japanese Yen June 02 contract.


06/13
The market is somewhat oversold. Some upward price action has developed.The short term trend is DOWN. The long term trend is UP, but is weakening and is subject to reversal. Move into the September contract.
Look for support levels arround .8020, .7975, and .7835 after the up move has run its course. 06/20
This market is still showing some strength testing the resistance level at arround .8150 for a second time. The short-term trend has again turned UP. The Yen however, is over-bought and although it may continue to be over-bought downward pressure is expected to develop.
Trader: Don't buy into an over-bought market. Stay out until it gives a clear indication as to direction. More on options coming up.
06/26
The Yen has made a nice run up. Both the long-term and short- term trends are UP. The Market is showing some strength. Because of the tidy profit made last month, trader has acted conservatively on the side of caution, which brings up a couple of inportant rules.
Trader: Never chase the marlet. Should you miss a move, let it go. It is better to be out of the market wishing you were in, than in the market wishing you were out. For those of you trading the market on a daily basis if not intraday, place your stop-loss orders and it is assumed, that you are familiar with the principles of good money (capital) management. Next week should bring about a change, if not, the up trend should continue. Watch out for periodic retracements.
07/02
Both trends are still up but the market, although inconclusive at this time, is again showing some weakness.
Trader: A bearish signal has been given which should be taken as a good point to liquidate long positions and stay on the sidelines until further notice.
End June
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