The Jakarta Post, December 26, 2002
Terrorism exists and may worsen next year: Analysts
Debbie A. Lubis, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
The country will have to deal with numerous social, political and economic problems
in 2003 if the government, politicians and security authorities fail to provide legal
certainty and law enforcement in the country, according to the National Institute of
Sciences (LIPI).
Reflecting on the problems of 2002, LIPI political analysts and researchers said that
the terrorist attacks that had triggered security disturbances over the last three years
were likely to remain a serious threat in 2003 due to the weakening religious tolerance
and hardships caused by the prolonged crisis.
Ikrar Nusa Bakti, head of LIPI's political research department, said that fragmentation
of power, wealth, resources, and beliefs would determine the country's life next year
since it was the final stage of the preparation for the 2004 elections.
"Such fragmentation will give rise to the emergence of extreme groups using terror to
achieve their goals," he said.
Ikrar said that terrorist acts which previously were conducted randomly and without a
clear message would find a clearer pattern next year because the perpetrators had
set agenda to achieve their goals.
"Terror attacks may continue with more focused targets and understandable
messages. For example, there will be suicide bombings or groups claiming
responsibility for terrorist acts including an open message from the perpetrator --
something that has never happened before," he said.
Ikrar said that terrorism could be quashed if the government, the public and security
authorities cooperate to fight all forms of terrorism.
"Terrorism will not end if we only crack down on its network or tackle the crimes if no
measures are taken to cope with the underlying problems," he said.
Terrorism in Indonesia, according to Ikrar, has a lot to do with inequity in the political,
social and economic fields.
"If we fail to cope with the main problems, this will foster antigovernment sentiments
and certain groups will continue to take advantage of the difficult situation to fight for
their own interests," he said.
Ikrar believes that with the nation's experience in the Oct. 12 Bali blasts, terrorism
would not have a place in the country if all people join the nationwide effort to fight
against terrorism.
"Defending those who are found guilty for the sake of the good name of an institution
will only produce a backlash which is not beneficial for the development of conducive
security conditions," Ikrar added.
M. Toha, head of LIPI's research center for economics, said that the lack of legal
certainty and law enforcement would make it difficult to achieve economic recovery
next year.
The country's economic growth in the second quarter this year stood at 3.7 percent,
dropping significantly from 4.53 percent in the same period last year. The country
needs to have an economic growth rate of at least 5.5 percent per year to achieve
economic recovery.
"The absence of a conducive business climate has scared investors away and allowed
capital flight to happen. We cannot develop our economy if terrorism continues," he
said.
Toha said that some US$3.9 billion in investment capital had left the country as of the
third quarter this year while the loan to deposit ratio was still 48 percent.
"It shows that businessmen still lack the confidence to invest their money or to
develop businesses here," he said.
Meanwhile, Yekti Maunati, head of LIPI's research center for regional resources, said
that terrorism and security issues this year had an adverse impact on the country's
tourism industry.
"Bali bombings, bomb threats in several regions, and travel advisories from several
foreign countries have caused the tourism industry to flop. I'm afraid we will face
massive unemployment soon," she said.
Yekti said that tourism, the third biggest foreign exchange earner after oil and gas,
would face many difficulties next year if the country could not guarantee security
protection for tourists.
"I believe that through cultural packages, our tourism industry will revive next year
because we have abundance of cultural resources. But, we cannot do anything if
security is still an issue in the country," she said.
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