There is probably no single subject that is of more interest to Americans,
as a whole, than money and yet I believe it is probable that the majority
of them know very little of our monetary system. In the United States,
during George Washington's first term as president, money essentially meant
specie, in other words coins made of various types of metal.
I am going to explain, as briefly as I possibly can, the way an economy
functions when all of its money is in the form of specie. In the interest
of simplicity I will stipulate that, in this economy, all money is in the
form of gold, barter is not a feature of the economy, and, initially, the
effects of foreign trade will be disregarded. The explanation would be
the same if other metals besides gold were used as money but gold is a
very short word and this will save space. The only effect of barter would
be to diminish the actual effects of variations between the total of wealth
produced in the nation and the amount of money in circulation. For ease
of explanation I will term this somewhat hypothetical economy an honest
economy. It is hypothetical only in the sense that it includes no barter
and barter was a significant factor in every economy that included no fractional
reserve banking.
The wealth of a nation does not consist of money in the hands of individuals
or the nation's government. The wealth produced by any nation is the goods
and services it produces. Money represents a claim on that wealth. The
part of this wealth that exists at any point in time is the total wealth
of that nation. Gold and other metals have some intrinsic value even if
they are not used as money. When they are used as money their value increases.
If gold, for example, is the coin of the realm all gold, whether or not
it has been minted into coins, will increase in value. The value that this
gold would have if gold were not used as money is its intrinsic value,
the increase in its value when it is used as money results from the fact
that it is then a claim on wealth. The total amount of wealth produced
by this nation in one year can be designated, at least in this explanation,
as the gross national product (GNP). Money is simply a medium used to facilitate
exchanges of the wealth that exists in the nation.
In this economy there is a very definite, and inflexible, relationship
between the GNP, the amount of money in circulation (the money supply),
the velocity of money and the price of any type of wealth that exists.
If the money of this nation is designated in dollars then the velocity
of money will be the number of transactions in which the average dollar
participates, in one year. An increase in the velocity of money will have
the same effect on prices as an increase in the money supply. Because the
velocity of money fluctuates very slowly I will stipulate, again for the
sake of simplicity, that in this economy the velocity of money remains
unchanged. Having made this stipulation we can say that the price of any
item of wealth will depend on the amount of the GNP, the amount of the
money supply, and the supply of, and demand for, the item in question.
Supply and demand will determine the value of any given item of wealth
relative to all other items of wealth but the overall level of all prices
will be determined solely by the amount of the GNP and the amount of the
money supply.
If the GNP increases and the money supply remains the same, or if the money
supply decreases and the GNP remains the same, or if both increase but
the money supply increases more slowly, or if both decrease but the money
supply decreases more rapidly, the result will be a decrease in prices.
This is termed price deflation or simply deflation. It occurs because the
money supply is, in each case, insufficient to meet the needs of the economy.
When this situation occurs the economy automatically adjusts the prices
in an effort to maintain a balance between the wealth produced and the
amount of money available to accomplish the desired exchanges of that wealth.
The process by which the economy does this can be easily explained but
the explanation is quite lengthy so I will only say here that it is accomplished
by the individual decisions of all of the people who produce and consume
wealth.
When any of the circumstances cited above are reversed, the result is an
increase in prices, which is termed price inflation or simply inflation.
I have defined the GNP as the total of wealth produced by this nation in
one year. Today it is commonly defined as the total of all exchanges of
wealth during one year and is expressed as the dollar value of all of those
exchanges. This definition does not include the wealth that is not sold
but is consumed by whoever produced it. In our economy today very little
of the wealth produced is consumed by whoever produced it and the two definitions
yield a figure that is pretty close to being the same. Two hundred years
ago a considerable part of the wealth produced was consumed by those who
produced it and for this reason the share of the total wealth produced
that could be claimed by a given individual was, in many cases, not accurately
reflected by his cash income. When the GNP is expressed as its value in
money the GNP for any given year can only be compared to the GNP for another
year if the dollar amount is corrected to reflect any change in the overall
level of prices. We commonly speak of this correction as being an adjustment
for inflation because we, in the U.S. have known constant inflation for
over half a century.
In every year some of the circulating money will be removed from circulation
by people who save part of their income. Today nearly all of this saved
money will be promptly invested in some way and thus returned to circulation.
Two hundred years ago a fairly substantial part of this saved money was
simply held in the form of gold by those who saved it. They may have been
saving it in order to accumulate enough money to purchase something they
wanted, or to have money available for emergencies or to enable them to
retire. The rest of the money saved by individuals was either invested
or lent out for interest and was thus returned to circulation.
Prior to the industrial revolution, viable investments were somewhat limited
as to availability. With the advent of the industrial revolution the demand
for investment capital increased drastically. In England fractional reserve
banking originated shortly before the industrial began there and in the
U.S. the two began at about the same time. I suspect that when the industrial
revolution began in other nations it also began simultaneously with the
introduction of fraction reserve banking or following it. The one possible
exception to this would be Soviet Russia, which, as a command economy,
was in a class by itself. This means that there is no historical evidence
to indicate how the industrial revolution would have proceeded in a nation
that was otherwise capable of developing its industrial potential but chose
not to permit fractional reserve banking. I am therefore going to offer
my own hypothesis of how industrial development would have proceeded in
the U.S. if Americans had followed Jefferson's advice and had not allowed
fractional reserve banking.
In an economy where specie is the only form of money the only money available
for investment is that part of their savings that people are either willing
to invest or to lend for investment. That would seem to be a truism but
it is not true in an economy that includes a fractional reserve banking
system. In the economy that I am discussing this means that industrial
development would, initially, proceed very slowly. Because the money available
for investment would be very limited only those investments with the greatest
potential for profit would be made. Investors would develop ways to tap
the savings of those who possessed only a small amount of capital. These
people would thus realize a good return on even small amounts of capital.
There would be fewer individuals amassing huge fortunes but many more people
realizing a small but significant return on invested savings. The purchasing
power of the middle and lower income classes would thus have been greater
than it actually was during the 19th century. As the process of industrialization
continued the total amount of capital available would increase at an ever
faster pace aided by the ever-increasing purchasing power of the population
as a whole. As this process continued, the level of industrialization reached
by this economy would eventually have exceeded the level that was reached
with a fractional reserve banking system. It is impossible, of course,
to say just when this would have occurred but I believe it would have happened
sometime in the late 19th century, especially when the effects of foreign
trade are considered.
The effects of foreign trade are quite simple when both nations concerned
have no fractional reserve banking. Basically nation A will export to nation
B those items that it produces cheaper than they can be produced in nation
B. It will also export some items it produces which are superior in quality
to those produced in nation B. Nation B, of course, will export to A those
items that it produces cheaper or of better quality. Every export results
in gold being transferred from the economy of the importing nation to the
economy of the exporting nation. If nation A imports more than it exports,
in monetary value, the money supply in nation A will be decreased and prices
will fall. The lower prices make nation A's exports more attractive to
nation B and they will increase. There will thus be a tendency for the
trade between the two nations to seek a more or less even balance.
Because we are interested primarily in the U.S. economy I will examine
the way in which foreign trade would have affected the U.S. economy had
the U.S. not permitted fractional reserve banking. Prior to the introduction
of fractional reserve banking the U.S. economy was essentially similar
to what I termed an honest economy. At the beginning of the 19th century
the U.S. was actively trading with several nations but the bulk of its
trade was with England. I will thus consider only the trade between these
two nations. The circumstances of our trade with other nations were somewhat
different and this explanation will not apply equally to trade with them.
Some of it would apply to them and the volume of trade with them was much
smaller so the end result would not be very different.
At that time U.S. exports to England consisted primarily of agricultural
products and raw materials, while imports from England were primarily manufactured
products. This was due primarily to three factors. First the U.S. was a
very new country and had simply had very little time to develop any industries.
Secondly, the colonies, while under English rule, were prohibited by English
law from engaging in many types of manufacturing. Thirdly, England had
had a fractional reserve banking system for over a century and this accelerated
the process of industrialization. The fractional reserve banking system
in England also limited the purchasing power of the English population
and made it necessary for England to seek other markets for its manufactures.
England's overseas colonies were an important part of these other markets
and this was, in fact, one reason for the English policy of colonization.
In the early 19th century England usually exported to the U.S. more than
they imported. If the U.S. had prohibited fractional reserve banking its
money supply would have decreased as a result of this imbalance of trade
and prices would have been reduced. This would mean that less money was
available for investment but it would also mean that the cost of investment
would be reduced so the amount of investment possible would have been about
the same as it would otherwise have been. Industrialization would have
proceeded very slowly initially but at an ever increasing pace. This industrialization
would have expanded the economy (increased the production of wealth) and
this expansion would also exert a downward pressure on prices. These lower
prices would have increased U.S. exports to England and at the same time
the increase in manufacturing in the U.S. would decrease imports from England.
The U.S. would also have competed effectively with British manufacturers
in trade with other nations.
Decreasing prices in the U.S. would have limited the profits of investors
who borrowed when the overall level of prices was higher but when this
trend of decreasing prices was recognized the interest rate would have
fallen to offset, at least partially, the effects of deflation.
It should be noted here that we are accustomed to equate deflation with
economic hard times because this is a part of the "business cycle" which
is actually a banking cycle and will be explained later. In the absence
of a fractional reserve banking system, the deflation caused by economic
expansion and negative trade balances would be relatively slow and orderly
and would be accompanied by a general prosperity rather than a recession.
As this process continued most of the population would actually profit
financially even as their nominal income decreased. This would be due to
the fact that industrialization would be increasing the total production
of wealth and decreasing the cost of producing it, while a larger part
of the population would share in the profits generated by this industrialization.
This is what probably would have resulted had the U.S. prohibited fractional
reserve banking and now I will compare this with the actual history of
the economy during the 19th century.
Fractional reserve banking has been an integral and very important part
of the economic history of the U.S. in both the 19th and 20th centuries
so I will briefly explain what it actually is and where it came from. Fractional
reserve banking originated in England in the 17th century. At that time
people would sometimes deposit gold with goldsmiths for safekeeping. Eventually
some of these depositors began using the receipts from goldsmiths in lieu
of the actual gold to make purchases or to discharge any other financial
obligations. This was more convenient than reclaiming the gold and using
it to pay their obligations and consequently much of the gold deposited
with the goldsmith remained on deposit for long periods of time. Some goldsmith,
who observed that he always had a certain amount of other people's gold
in his possession, began to lend out a part of this gold. The goldsmith
would require the lender to put up collateral worth more than the amount
of the loan which would be forfeited if the loan was not repaid. The goldsmith
thus collected interest by lending gold that did not belong to him.
Eventually these goldsmiths realized that they did not have to give the
borrower possession of the actual gold. The receipt for the gold could
be used in the same way as the gold itself and so they began to make their
loans in the form of receipts rather than the actual gold. When they observed
that these receipts were seldom presented for redemption they began to
issue receipts for more than the total amount of gold in their possession.
This was such a profitable business that some of the goldsmiths abandoned
their trade and became bankers. They accepted deposits of gold from the
public and lent out money. Eventually they began to use bank notes instead
of receipts. These bank notes were printed in various denominations and
stated that they were redeemable on demand for gold. The bankers circulated
these notes for total amounts that far exceeded the amount of gold in their
vaults. It would seem that these bankers were placing themselves in a very
precarious position since they could not possibly redeeem all of the notes
that they circulated. In actuality this seldom created a problem. The bank
notes were very convenient to use and, since the bank guaranteed to redeem
them for gold the public accepted them as the equivalent of gold. Banks
would often issue $10 worth of bank notes, or even more, for each dollar
of gold in their vaults.
By this process the banks actually created money out of thin air and collected
interest on it. When the loan was repaid the principle amount of the note
simply disappeared. The interest on the money went into the bankers' pockets.
The bankers were thus siphoning money from the economy by lending their
factitous money. There were a few banks in the U.S. that operated this
way in the late 18th century. In the early 19th century the number of banks
in the U.S. began to increase, slowly at first and then after a few years
very rapidly.
When these banks began to proliferate the money supply increased very dramatically.
Because the public recognized these factitious bank notes as being equal
in value to gold the result was the same as if a large amount of gold had
suddenly been placed in circulation. That result, of course, was inflation.
The situation was aggravated by the outbreak of the War of 1812. The people
who controlled most of the money and banks in the New England area opposed
the war and thus the government found it difficult to raise money there.
In other areas banks began to mushroom, finding a ready market for loans
in the federal government as well as among investors in the private sector
anxious to cash in on the opportunities presented by the war.
This flood of money not only created inflation but also promoted economic
expansion. Most of the money lent by banks, except for loans to the government,
was invested. Borrowing for consumer purchases was virtually unknown at
that time. This money had to be returned, with interest, to the banks from
which it was borrowed. This meant that a great deal of money was removed
from circulation by this process. By 1814 many Americans had come to doubt
the ability of the banks to redeem their notes for gold. They began to
present their notes for redemption and eventually, in 1814, most of the
banks outside the New England area suspended specie payments. In simpler
terms they refused to honor their commitment to redeem their notes for
gold. The notes of these banks began to be discounted to gold. People no
longer accepted them at their face value. The government acquiesced in
this suspension of specie payments and this led to the creation of many
new banks. The money created by these new banks was also discounted and
the net result was that the money supply at this time was either decreasing
or increasing relatively slowly. When the war ended the boom was kept alive,
for a time, chiefly because of two factors. The first was widespread crop
failures in Europe that created an increased demand for U.S. agricultural
products and the second was a huge increase in government spending for
the construction of federally owned facilities. Many Americans, and especially
many in the Congress, were aware that the nation was heading for an economic
crisis. The Republican controlled Congress in 1816 did what it had previously
refused to do, it chartered a national bank. This was the second Bank of
the United States. The first Bank of the United States was chartered in
1792 at the suggestion of Alexander Hamilton. This bank's 20 year charter
expired in 1812 and Congress refused to renew it. Congress had no control
over state chartered banks or privately owned banks and the former mushroomed
in numbers and their operations were not subject to even the nominal restraint
of the first Bank of the United States. In 1816 Congress chartered another
national bank, and President Madison signed the charter, in the belief
that the bank would be able to moderate and extend the inevitable contraction
of the money supply and thus mitigate the approaching crisis. The bank
probably had the ability to do this but it chose instead to join in the
orgy of money creation and fast profits.
These profits really were huge. It was not unusual for stockholders to
realize a 100% return on their investment in one year and in some cases
this profit was as high as 200% in one year. In these circumstances most
banks lent as much as possible, which is equivalent to saying they created
as much factitious money as they possibly could.
The second Bank of the United States began operations in January of 1817.
By February 20, 1817 the nation's banks resumed specie payments in exchange
for promises of support from the central bank. At this point one would
expect that large numbers of Americans would have redeemed their bank notes
for gold. They did not, and, in answer to a question from the English economist
David Ricardo, the Philadelphia economist, Condy Raguet, explained why: