Preference Bid? Balanced over Unbalanced


7 6 3
Q 10 9 8
A J 8 2
K 8
K J 9 2 A Q 10 8 5
J 5 2 K 6 3
9 6 3 7 5
10 7 4 9 6 2
4 Opening lead: 2 of spades
A 7 4Contract: 5 clubs, 5 diamonds, 6 diamonds
K Q 10 4
A Q J 5 3

SouthWestNorthEast
1 Pass 1 1
Dbl * 2 3 Pass
4 Pass 5 All pass* Alerted

There are several lessons to be picked up from this hand, the most glaring being a combination of Preference Bids, q.v., plus the Balanced over the Unbalanced, q.v. It's just unbelievable that anyone would show preference for declarer's second suit with a doubleton while holding four cards in the first! It's true that North did show support for the first suit, but that was before the second was offered, so five clubs certainly looks like preference. On top of that, North should be looking for the balanced fit over the unbalanced. So there certainly should have been no vector toward preferring that second suit, regardless of how many cards South has in it.
How many tricks can you make in clubs? In diamonds? And the answer can only be five in the former -- now that's on a right guess in hearts -- and definitely five in the latter and perhaps six! Without any need for a guess in hearts! Howzzat! In five clubs, you've gotta lose a spade and a heart (if you guess right, two if you don't). In diamonds? The friendly defense of a spade opening lead and spade continuation, which several declarers got, allowed 12 tricks. No, you don't want to rely on defensive gifts. Just take advantage of them when they occur. But the point is that if there is defensive misplay, you're far better situated with a balanced suit for trump.
Your twelve winners are going to be six diamonds, five clubs and the ace of hearts. You get those winners by ruffing two spades in the closed hand (well, the hand with the singleton spade, for it was played from each side of the table). As unlikely a candidate for a dummy reversal as it might appear, you are substantially going to make the dummy high by ruffing two spades and tossing three hearts on the long clubs. Try getting six diamond winners in a club contract. You cannot. Try getting more than 5 club winners in a club contract. You cannot. And that's why you want the balanced suit for trump when faced with a choice between two minors or two majors.
The matchpoint scores are also worth noting. Five diamonds brought 59%. Five diamonds with an overtrick: 79%. Six diamonds: 97%. So there was a (slightly) greater disparity between a "mere" overtrick in 5 diamonds and not getting the overtrick than between the overtrick and a successful slam! I must admit that was a little bit of a surprise to me (too?). Slams are traditionally the great desideratum of bridge. You simply take a greater chance than the chickens do. So how does a slam lift one's score over a game plus overtrick less than the overtrick does over game alone? Well, there you see it. It just does. So particularly in matchpoint events do you want to knuckle down to the overtrick that may or may not be available.
Anyway, here are a few declarers at play: One declarer got a spade opening lead and spade continuation, as friendly a defense as you could ask for -- and sluffed a club on the second spade lead. A loser on a loser? No, that's a winner on a loser. The fifth club in the solid suit has to be a winner! And sluffing winners is not a good idea.
Another declarer got the same spade opening lead and spade continuation, ruffed it and led a heart to the Q and K! So quickly you lead a heart? You don't hafta lose any hearts. You sluff 'em on clubs. You have two clubs in one hand, 5 in the other. That means 3 sluffs when the suit is solid. You sluff three hearts and there is only one left for the ace. But what about the last spade? Well, the opponents have shown you the way. With a lot of communication (holding the top five trump on a 3-2 split and the K of clubs), you go to dummy and ruff the third spade, draw trump (cash the K, overtake the Q), run clubs and claim -- 12 tricks.
Here are a few who made 12 tricks: Spade A, spade continuation ruffed, club to the K, ruff the last spade, K of diamonds, overtake the queen with the A, cash the J, sluffing a heart, cash the 8 of diamonds, sluffing a second heart, and run clubs. (There is no difference here between sluffing a heart on dummy's last diamond and, alternatively, running clubs, pitching 3 hearts from dummy and then ruffing that last heart.)
Another: Spade opening lead to the A, shift to club, won with the K, ruff a spade, K of diamonds, Q overtaken by the Ace, ruff the last spade, A of clubs, Q of clubs, sluffing a heart, 5 of clubs, sluffing a heart, J of clubs ruffed and overruffed! If you're ruffing, you're not sluffing, so declarer can only sluff 2 hearts on the clubs. Eight of diamonds, sluffing a heart from the closed hand, Q of hearts, covered with the K, taken by the A, the J falling (!) and so the seven of hearts to the 10 took the last trick. Had the hand with the J of hearts saved a guard instead of the K of spades, the contract could have been beaten for a matchpoint jump of about 90 points! That club shift is a killer. Declarer can ruff a spade, get back and ruff the last spade, but will (probably) be left with K of diamonds bare opposite A 8 2, only one round of trump having been drawn, meaning he can't afford to overtake the king and he has no entry to the ace once the king holds for the second round of trump. Yes, there is a way (we note for any nitpickers): Ruff a spade with the 10, diamond 4 to the 8, ruff a spade with the K, overtake the Q and cash the J of diamonds. But that's pie in the sky. No one's going to do that. Not even an expert.
Another got lucky in another way: A of spades on opening lead, low heart, ducked around to the Q. This declarer only needs to sluff two hearts now on the clubs and hence can sluff one spade, and hence need ruff only one spade, which will come easily on the 3-2 diamond break.