A Near Disaster

Another One


K J 8 3
8 5 2
K 5
A 7 6 4
10 9 7 5 A Q 4 2
Q 3 K J 10 4
J 10 7 2 A 6 4
K J 10 Q 9
6 Vul: No one
A 9 7 6
Q 9 8 3Opening lead: Q of hearts
8 5 3 2

WestNorthEastSouth
Pass Pass 1 NT Pass
Pass Dbl Pass 2
Allpass

This unwise balancing bid surfaced unsought just as I was putting the last one on, so I thought I might add it. Declarer was down three for a poor score, even without being doubled. And if he'd been doubled, it would have been a disaster. Further, it's hard to believe any West wouldn't offer a double there. He knows his side has the preponderance of hcp's, should have a minimum of six diamonds, and that those guys are going for eight tricks to your five!
Balancing against a no trump opener is very risky, and I would say unwise with a balanced hand and fewer points than opener, as here. For two reasons. First, the limited hcp range for a no trump opener often makes it possible for the partner of the opener to know that his side has no reasonable shot at game but holds a clear preponderance of the hcp's -- such as 22 to 24, fr'instance. Game is unlikely at the same time that they can be dangerous and formidable opponents -- even at the two level. With a suit bid, one traditionally finds a bid with 6 points, for his partner could have a rock-crusher with 20 points. And the opening side will probably let you know quickly if they've got a near-game preponderance of the points or are willing to settle in a partial.
T'ain't so with no trump. And the second reason is that you can't guarantee 4 cards for your partner in every unbid suit, as you might be able to do balancing against suit bids. Here with all of eleven hcp's, two four-card suits, a three-carder and a doubleton, North makes a blind stab at stealing the bid because . . well, why?
There's no evidence that his side has the preponderance of the points or even half, nor any evidence that there's a good fit, or at least a probabily of finding a good fit (as with having 4 cards in each unbid suit). All he knows is that his opponents have felt they didn't have enough for game, which still leaves a lot of room to be outclassed by their hcp's, as they were here by 23 to 17. And West should certainly double and let this North player know how unwise a balancing double can be with such a meagre hand.
This, incidentally, is not to suggest that every fourth hand should eschew entering the auction. With a one-suited hand or a two-suited hand, North might resonably chance a bid even with fewer hcp's than the opener, and I would suggest that a reasonable criterion is, Would you have made that bid second hand? If so, then you must feel confident enough to enter the bidding fourth hand. But if you wouldn't feel confident entering the auction second hand, then I'd say it's extremely unwise to think it must be safe to enter fourth hand. For a pass by third hand doesn't tell you he's got a real bust of a hand. He only acknowledges that he doesn't think game probable, which, as mentioned above, leaves room for 25 hcp's!
Here it was 23 hcp's to 17. Would you like to go for 8 tricks to their 5 when they have that hcp advantage and you hold but one more trump than they do? I think not. And here the balancing side had one less than the opponents! They do have 8 clubs, but South has just one stab at finding their best suit, and no, on a double a run to 3 clubs wouldn't help.