Not the Fault of Balancing


Q 8 4 3
K 8 4 3
5 2
A 7 5
A K J 5
J 9 6 Q 10 2
Q 10 7 3 A J 6
J 8 4 3 2 K 10 9 6
10 9 7 6 2
A 7 5
K 9 8 4 Vul: N-S
Q Opening lead: 3 of clubs (probably)

SouthWestNorthEast
Pass Pass Pass 1
Pass 2 Pass Pass
2 3 3 All pass

It just baffles the be-jesus outta me. I took another gander at "zone.com" and signed onto an experts' table to kibitz, and for the second straight time, I found a deplorable demonstration of expertise on the very first hand I kibitzed. Maybe I'd better try a novice table next time. Anyway . . . This declarer was down two tricks, for minus 200 when the opponents again were only going for a 3 club bid, and of course, that 200 could easily have been minus 500 with a double. I just can't see such a strategy when even undoubled, you come out smelling somewhat less savory than a rose.
Well, lemme look at the bidding and point out what the bidders knew and what they should have known. First, there had been four passes by the N-S pair before South ventured a bid. Each partner hadn't thought enough of his hand twice to venture into the bidding at the one or two level, and now suddenly their hands are good enough to go for the majority of the tricks, indeed, to go for more than twice the number of tricks the opponents can take? "Pd, I think we can get 9 to their 4"? Each partner is looking at exactly 9 hcp's, which is to say that neither has even an average 10 hcp's to their hand! And they look to take twice the number of tricks that the opponents can take? Does that make sense to anyone except experts? Or dare I say soi-disant experts? Oh, but their 9 hcp's are largely prime hcp's. Oh.
There's nary a sequence in honors, not a sequence higher than 10 9 in either hand. And what is the justification for entering into the bidding with so little going for them? Because the opponents had petered out at 2 clubs, then going up to 3 clubs. Here the 3 club bidders can make their bid only on a right (and improbable) guess for the stiff Q of clubs.
So I think there are a few lessons to learned from combining those two situations: first, the fact that the opponents are ready to pass out the bidding at the 2 or 3 level does not mean you have the stuff for the 2 or 3 level yourself! They could very easily have, call it, 22 or 23 hcp's, not enough for pushing forward, but enough to pin your ears back if you come in. They could also have enough for game and not been skillful enough to smoke it out. Why on earth base your bidding on trusting the opponents? And lastly, as here, they might already be overbid (except on that right guess) and your best line still lies in passing.
Now lemme look at the South's 2 spade bid from a more positive angle. The bid did push the opponents to a level where they might well go down. Aside from an improbable double (that's at the two level, not the 3 I'm calling it improbable), that's a modest penalty to risk. So I would have to cast the lion's share of blame on North who heard the basic weakness of his side and still ventured onto the 3 level vulnerable. That's little short of inexcusable. Oh, but he has a fit! Oh, yes, I see it. But evidently a fit doesn't mean you've got enough tricks for your bid, now, does it?
[years later] I cannot see why declarer is down 2 at the three level. The opponents have 3 spade tricks coming, but they can't effect three leads (to advantage). If declarer leads toward his K of diamonds and thinks of ruffing two diamonds in dummy, or maybe leads the third round of hearts, setting up a third heart winner (that can be ruffed, but only with one of the three spades declarer has to lose to), I don't see how the defense can take more than three spades, a heart and a diamond.
Which is pretty close to saying that the balancing 2 spade bid was pretty nifty, after all. It can be made, and succeeded in pushing the opponents to a 3 club level that declarer could make only on an awfully good guess. The mischief comes from lame-brained partner who sez, "Oh! We've got a fit. And you didn't know anything about my support. So if you can bid two, I can bid three!" Yeah. North has to figure that if his partner didn't know about that support, he's sure as shootin' presuming it or placing high hopes on it. There were four passes before that bid, you know.
So I'll have to concede that it wasn't the balancing bid that did the mischief here. It's rather a peripheral danger of balancing, that sometimes partners can't help bumping up the contract one level 'cause they've got some stuff they hadn't advertised yet. Not to mention a touch of misplay. I didn't note the play, but I have a strong suspicion that declarer led trump twice, which East turned into three times.
But if it wasn't the fault of balancing, I believe I'll let the hand stay put with that admission.