More of the Same


K 10 4
A 10 6 5
K 6 5 2
A 10
Q 8 5 3 2 J 9 6
Q 7 4 3 K 9 8
9 3 Q 10
9 3 Q J 6 5 4
A 7 Vulnerability: none
J 2 Opening lead: 3 of spades
A J 8 7 4 Contract (N-S): 3 no, 6 diamonds
K 8 7 2 Contract (E-W): as below

After yesterday's hand with one bidder going to the six level on 5-5 in the majors and 5 hcp's (with nary a peep from partner), I took note of two pairs meeting disaster at the two level with similar recklessness.
NorthEastSouthWest
Pass Pass 1 2 *
Dbl 2 Pass Pass
Dbl All pass * Michaels for the majors

NorthEastSouthWest
1 2 Pass Pass
Dbl All pass

Each of these declarers went for minus 1400. That's as opposed to a diamond slam, which only two pairs found, worth 920 points! A tad expensive, wouldn't you say? Yesterday I said a two level bid on 5-5 in the majors and 5 hcp's was marginally acceptable. I did mention the favorable vulnerability which contributes to making this so. What I thought of but didn't mention was the robust 5-5 holding. I almost mentioned that I wouldn't do it on a 5-4 holding, in part because you might easily wind up in a 4-3 fit. Which is what happened to the Michaels bidder with 4 hcp's: partner with 3 pieces in each major picked the hearts, though it's doubtful spades would have fared a whole lot better. Anyway, this is sheer recklessness. It's not sophisticated bridge to come in at the two level on 4 hcp's and only a 5-4 holding in the suits your promise. Not sophisticated at all.

A couple of years ago I noted how commonly bidders will lose their bearings in competition and was led to open this topic. Players who know that a two-level bid in a lower-ranking suit opposite an opening bid requires 10 hcp's, and mind you now, that's opposite a partner showing some strength, will enter the bidding at two level opposite a partner who hasn't shown any strength on four hcp's. That's how many points the Michaels bidder had. And that was opposite a passing partner! The club overcaller had 9. Call it enough for a two-level bid opposite an opening bid, if you will. It didn't seem to be enough opposite a partner with 4 hcp's. I would be willing to bet you that neither of those players made a one-level opener on that day on that strength. But put 'em in competition and some of 'em go wild.
However, I subsequently became interested in the range of tricks taken in 3 no, which went from 9 to 12. Since declarer has 10 top winners, the one with only 9 clearly misplayed. (You can't go wrong on the Q of diamonds, can you?) On the other hand, I've gotta suspect even before looking that all those making 12 got a defensive error. And those making 10 vs those making 11? I would suspect the latter played it better. Anyway, to someone making 12:
Spade to the A, run five diamonds, sluffing a spade from dummy. On the last three diamond leads, West sluffed two clubs and a heart. A heart? Does he think spades will be played out to the fifth round? I would recommend keeping four hearts and the like number of spades (well, 3, since the suit has been played once). East likewise sluffed two clubs and a heart. You can see what's shaping up. A club to the ace, a heart away from the ace, and East understandably goes up. How many heart winners does declarer have? Well, that's three now, on a simple finesse (declarer unblocked the J) and the long heart, since West has only a once-guarded queen at that point. So that's three hearts, 5 diamonds, two spades and two clubs. Bingo. Had West kept four hearts, declarer couldn't have picked up a third heart winner. Two, yes, three, no.
And matchpoints? Well, 75.64% for this declarer, and 38.46% to the one making 5! Quite a disparity for that third overtrick, no? Here's another, played from the North hand, picking up 12 tricks: A low club from East to the 10. Okay, that's 11 tricks for the declaring side. Lemme see how they got a 12th. Five rounds of diamonds, getting, curiously a club, a heart and a spade from each defender. Now a low heart from the ace, East hopping up with the K, shooting a heart back, giving declarer an easy play for the rest of the tricks, indeed with a redundant trick.
Making 5? Opening lead the Q of clubs (played from the North hand, evidently). You might note at that point that declarer has an easy path to a third club winner by way of leading the 10. West should not cover (if he does, declarer has 4 club winners), and declarer should push it through. Anyway, let's see what transpired: Declarer ran five diamonds getting (again) the same pattern from each defender, which here was two spades and a heart. A heart was ducked to LHO's 8, a club lead was ducked around to the 10, declarer now cashed the top spade, K of clubs, spade to the K, ace of hearts, and the last trick was a heart to the Q.
Making 4? Same Q of clubs opening lead. Two diamonds tricks, Jack of hearts covered by the Q, taken by the A, diamond to the J, spades sluffed by defenders, heart finesse into the K, low club to the K, smothering the 10. There's a big difference right there. Opening leader had indicated the J on the opening lead (not a certainty, of course), but more important, what had declarer to lose by ducking the lead? He has access to the K of clubs. It's true that he was "wide open" in hearts, but with only 3 remaining out, the suit shouldn't have seemed terribly dangerous. Declarer, who had lost only one trick up to then, had both the chance that the club would ride to the 10 and that the heart suit would block. He now finished off diamonds, cashed the A K of spades and then lost a trick to the 9 of hearts and, yes, the J of clubs. That timidity when there was hardly any danger as discussed above by virtue of a sort of marked card in LHO's hand brought this declarer from 38.46% matchpoints to 9. That's quite a drop. Quite a drop.
And lastly, the one who made only 9 tricks for a zero: Spade opening lead to the A, J of hearts into the Q. Oh, God. This isn't worth going through. There is no finesse that direction. You're missing the Q 10 9. Either you're going to drop the Q or you can try a finesse leading toward the jack. This must be a beginner.