This may not be the easiest case of counting winners and then going after them. But it sure doesn't require a whole lot more than a bit of knowledge of bridge and second grade arithmetic. When I saw that a couple of declarers went down in 6 clubs (one down 2), I knew right away what they'd done, for it's a common failing, and that was to pitch those miserably low spades on the diamond honors. Shouldn't we get rid of those low spades? Actually not. They're a lot more valuable to you than the J 10 9 of hearts!
I have said elsewhere that if your head is screwed on straight, it probably won't matter whether you count winners or losers, since each is the complement of 13 -- if your head is screwed on straight. And if it isn't? Then you've got a blown slam, as here. So let's start counting winners, and then maybe we'll double back to count losers: Six trump winners if you lead out three rounds (as each of these declarers did), four diamond winners (after ruffing out the fourth round, provided we haven't eaten up an entry) and one heart. Hm-m-mmm. Six and four and one add up to 11, I believe, which doesn't augur well for slam, and that's why you shouldn't be sluffing those valuable spades. No, don't tell me you're going to ruff your spades after ridding dummy of all spades. You've got three spades and only one trump! How many spades can you ruff with one trump? It doesn't do you any good to shorten a side suit in one hand if you don't have trump to handle leads of that suit from the other hand. But the K J 10 offer two winners -- if you can lead toward them.
Those declarers who went down should be thinking of positive winners rather than an absence of spade losers in dummy. For what of it if you have no spade losers, but two heart losers, eh? Now, a finesse of the 10 of diamonds would work: that gives you five diamonds, six clubs and the A of hearts. Two-two clubs would have done it, giving you seven club winners, 4 diamonds and a heart. And one other way: the spade hook -- twice. Plain and simple. If you do take it, you can forget about the 5th diamond. There is no other way. The diamond hook or the spade twice.
How about ruffing hearts twice in the short (closed) hand, thus giving us seven club winners? Won't do, because then you can't be in the closed hand for the 5th diamond with all trump out. Now listen up: Every card in each hand must be a winner or go on a winner in the other hand with one exception (because you're in a six bid). So let's check it out: starting with the closed hand: I don't have to worry about trump or about hearts with a singleton opposite an ace. As for diamonds, I can ruff the fourth round and cash the 5th, provided I keep that entry, by way of a heart ruff after ruffing the fourth round of diamonds (as I look for the J falling short). And spades? Where are they going? I've already mentioned that with only one trump (three rounds and ruffing a diamond), you can't ruff more than one spade with only one trump! You must take the spade hook, unless you take the diamond!
Now let's check out the dummy on the same token: No need to worry about diamonds or clubs or, well, spades, if we set our mind to discard them all on diamonds. Okay. But after ruffing one heart (after cashing the ace), that leaves us with two heart losers! Isn't it strange that that checks out with the other count. You'll have two spades you can't do anything with (if you sluff the spade spots) in the closed hand and two hearts you can't make a winners of in dummy.
I don't want to flog this hand to death, of course. Still, I think the leisure of an analysis is worthwhile for any reader whose first thought would be to sluff those lousy looking spade spots. And I hope it's clear now that they're worth a lot more than the heart honors. You can finesse with the spade spots and make winners of the J and K. But there's nothing you can do with the J 10 9 of hearts (except ruff one). (I have elsewhere used the term "enablers" for insignificant cards that enable another card to win a trick. Here those spots are necessary to enable the spade honors (two of them) to be winners.
Ain't bridge fun. Just think: if trump split 2-2 or the J of diamonds fell short on a 4-3 break, any novice could bring this contract home. But you don't want a game where declarer play isn't challenging, and any novice can fulfill contracts. You want a little difficulty, for those are the hands that allow you to pull ahead of the pack, or will be the hands that allow you do so when you settle down to being a formindable declarer. No?
I meant to substitute this for a hand that involved a totally senseless second round finesse into a jack when declarer held the A K Q! (having won the first round with the 9). But I couldn't find it. In any event, this hand strikes me as almost purely a matter of counting well. Whether I count winners, or losers in the North hand or losers in the South hand, I keep coming up one trick short unless one takes the spade hook or the diamond. Both finesses are on. So it seems to me a good count could only steer declarer right.
I suspect that this is another illustration of that common mistake, to think that if there are no spades in dummy in a trump contract, that means there are no spade losers. T'ain't so. And you might note that by ridding themselves of spades losers in the North hand, they also rid themselves of any spade winners. And without that diamond hook, you can't make the hand without a spade winner.
I once remarked casually that you can have losers in a suit where you have a void in a trump contract, and someone asked me how! How? One really doesn't understand? You lose spade tricks, for instance, though you started with a void in a trump contract when you have no more trump and those guys lead spades. That's how. Not observed? It's not so terribly rare. This is a hand in point, though declarer will probably wind up in the North hand losing two heart tricks. But what cards do you think will go on those two heart losers, huh?