Count Your Winners


A J 4
Q J 5
Q 2
K Q J 3 2
8 6 10 9 5 3
10 9 8 4 K 2
8 7 6 4 J 9 5 3
6 5 4 A 10 9
K Q 7 2
A 7 6 3 Opening lead: 10 of hearts
A K 10
8 7 Contract: 6 no trump

Three people went down in this easily makable contract here. Two of them got a fine defensive maneuver by East but still should have made it, while the third didn't even have that much of an excuse. When dummy comes down, with the heart finesse taken care of for you, declarer can see that he has 4 spade winners, two hearts, three diamonds for nine, and a reasonable chance -- well just about your only chance here -- of four more in the club suit. So what's the first thing you must do? Right. Go after those clubs!
One declarer took the J of hearts, covered by the K with the A, went to the Q of clubs, drawing the A, took the heart return with the Q, cashed the K of clubs, switched to the A of spades. He had his 12 winners at that point, which he would have discovered if he'd simply cashed the J of clubs. Nor is there any reason not to, for he doesn't have to take any more finesses, knock out any more aces. Either clubs run for 12 tricks or they don't. But putting off the run of that suit simply doesn't augur well. As in many a similar case, it wasn't cashing the A of spades that queered the hand, but a dummy watching this would certainly have reason for feeling uneasy. Anyway, he now cashed three spade winners, not the fourth, and led a heart! This was won by West with the 9. Now a club return essentially forced declarer to win the rest of the tricks. Down one. It is simply incomprehensible why declarer would abandon the club suit to lead a losing heart on this lovely contract.
The other two declarers who went down didn't have the contract virtually handed to them. Still, by elementary reasoning, they should have made their contract. What they got from East was a hold-up of the first two rounds of clubs! Clever, at least here. Now, declarer doesn't know that clubs are splitting 3-3, of course. And indeed, if a defender holds that last two clubs, then he has a tenace holding in clubs, A 6 over the J 3, and a club lead would spell defeat. Still, these declarers certainly should have chanced a club lead.
No, it's not a matter of hindsight, not a matter of knowing it would work. Rather the reason is, what's the alternative? If there were a viable play elsewhere, say a 50-50 finesse, I would hardly be inclined to carp at a reasonable shift in strategy even if it turned out badly. But the alternative to chancing a third club lead is deliberately playing to go down! Count your winners. Two in clubs, three in diamonds, four in spades and two in hearts. The only suit where declarer could possibly gain a trick outside of clubs is hearts and you're looking at the 7? And the 5? With the 9 and 8 still out? C'mon. You've got a club suit that may bring you home and a heart suit that could do so only on two foolish discards.
Declarer certainly should take his chance, remembering that if clubs are 4-2, well, everybody's going to get a 4-2 split and you'll have company. But you don't want to be strung out in left field going down one when clubs aren't 4-2, no? Heads, I have a chance. Tails, no chance. Now which is better?

One pair went down in 6 hearts (!) on this bidding:

SouthWestNorthEast
1 NT Pass 2 Pass
2 Pass 6 All pass

The hand has two lessons, the first being the oft-repeated admonition that when you're loaded for bear (and correctly sniff out a slam potential), you're going to find no trump a very attractive denomination when you don't have a good fit and do have all suits stopped with high cards. Here it is apparent that hearts are this side's third best suit. (You can see that 6 clubs would play much the same as 6 no, though the score would be considerably less). And on such an important contract, you don't want to throw away your acumen on comprehending the right level by choosing a trump suit where you don't have clear dominance. Eight pieces are traditionally the minimum for a dominant trump suit. Indeed, the Stayman convention was especially designed to smoke out 4-4 fits!
And there's another lesson here, only this one is for a defender. Declarer got a club opening lead, the K drawing the ace, East returning a club to the J. Declarer then took three diamond tricks, sluffing a club for no good reason that I can see, Then the A of spades, the Q of hearts holding the trick, a heart to the ace, picking up the K, a heart back to the J, the Q of clubs, J of spades to the Q, K of spades ruffed by West, the diamond 8 ruffed by declarer.
Do you see where the error lay? Yes, East should cover the Q of hearts. If you don't, you're likely to get just what happened here, which is that the K then captures air and declarer gains a trick. No, you generally don't want to cover the first of equal honors. But an honor doubleton betokens an exception, as explained here. That's your only chance to do something with that king, to capture something worthwhile. When the Q holds, declarer figures there's not much percentage in leading the jack and so comes to the ace, getting that K at no cost. Declarer should have been down two, West picking up two trump tricks without effort.