Count Your Winners

	J 6
	6 5
	Q 5 4
	A K Q 9 8 6
K 9 8 5		A Q 4 3
K J 9 4		10 8 7
10 7 6		J 2
7 2		J 10 5 4
	10 7 2
	A Q 3 2
	A K 9 8 3
	3

That previous hand reminded me of another hand with a similar trump situation (where on 5-3 trump, one top honor in dummy, declarer must take the last trump in dummy). The contract was 3 diamonds. West opened with a low spade, won by East who shifted to a heart, declarer winning with the ace.

It was a wise move, but followed up with one not so wise. For declarer now went to her queen of diamonds and back to her ace, king, then led to dummy's clubs. When that suit didn't split evenly, she led to her queen of hearts, but that wasn't to prove a winner, leaving her with 9 and her contract, but not having done her best.

Now West typed in the message on OKbridge that 5 diamonds was cold, and I (dummy) typed in the message that there was a way to beat five diamonds, and East typed in the message that three spade leads would do it, and I typed in the message, "That's it!" Declarer, of course, did have an opportunity for 11 tricks with that heart shift and the wise decision to go up with the ace. Of course, she can pick up twelve winners by her line if clubs break 3-3. But it's not likely, and she would have done well to play for the likeliest split in clubs.

What she should do is to cash her ace, king of trump, and when trump are splitting evenly, go to a top club, come back ruffing a club, and then go to the queen of diamonds. When clubs break 4-2, she has five club winners, not the 6 she might have hand and not the three she actually got.

Counting winners, we would see five diamonds, a heart and five clubs, whether they break 3-3 or 4-2, for a respectable 11 tricks.

I don't want to reduce bridge to a simple matter of the odds, exactly, and certainly not to the point where one works out that one line of play is 1 13/16% better than another, as I saw in one column. I don't think many people want to figure odds like that. They play slow enough now as it is! However, there are two principles on odds I have often exhorted even for novices, to wit:
(1) An even number of card will tend to split unevenly, while an odd number will tend to split evenly; and (2) there is a point where going against the odds is simply a descent into bad bridge.

Yes, this was just such a case. Declarer would have done well to play for a slightly uneven, odds-favored 4-2 club split by going to dummy come back with a club ruff, and thereby pick up 11 tricks.