Count Your Winners III

A J 9 7
A
K J 9 6 2
A 9 2
6 3 4 2
K Q J 8 5 4 2 3
------ A Q 10 7 5 3
Q 10 6 5 K J 7 5
K Q 10 8 5
10 9 7 6
8 4 Contract: 4 spades, dbld
8 4Opening lead: K of hearts

This is from the Scheinwold-Stewart column on OKbridge. Four bids -- diamond by East, followed by a spade, 4 hearts, 4 spades -- and then a double by West. Opening lead: K of hearts. If you think spades are solid and hearts cool with a stiff ace, but you've got to lose a club and two diamonds, so you have a secure contract, you'd better look again. You'd be making the same blunder as declarer did in the first example. It's not your losers I'd ask you to count but your winners. Do you see your way to 10?
It's not bloody likely, not at a quick glance, I'll warrant ye. You have lovely spots in spades. You have lovely distribution, a theoretical potential for 8 spade winners, which with two aces would bring home your contract. But what don't you have? You don't have entries. (Sung to the tune of "There is Nothing Like a Dame".)
The one suit where you do have a quick entry to the closed hand is, of course, trump, but if you lead it twice (or your opponents lead it after you lead it once), you can only pick up seven trump winners, and it's not enough. How are you going to resolve that dilemma?
One declarer solved it beautifully: at trick two, she led the jack of diamonds! East won with the queen and led a trump, won in dummy, and now declarer led a low diamond. And their goose was cooked.
If East wins with the ten and leads another trump, declarer has a marked (ruffing) finesse against the ace of diamonds (with K 9) for her 10th winner there. And if East ducks to retain the tenace position, allowing his partner to ruff, then West can't lead trump, and declarer, cashing the ace of clubs somewhere along the line, gets three heart ruffs in the short hand for 8 spade winners and two aces.
At the other table, declarer got a trump opening lead and never recovered. Analysis shows that this declarer could have done the same thing in diamonds, but then, they're all a little easier to play when you're looking at all 52 cards.
In any event, you must go beyond the quickie analysis of two diamond losers (at worst) and a club for 10 winners. That's two diamond losers and a club for three losers, which doesn't mean 10 winners, unless you get 10 winning cards. You must see that you've got to ruff hearts three times in dummy, which you cannot do if trump are led twice, or establish a diamond winner with four of the top 7 diamonds, no?
Looking at this hand something like five years after first posted, I'd hafta say this is one of the most intriguing and intricate hands I've posted here. It's certainly not easy to run the play totally in the mind, as I do with most hands, and so I decided to spell it out, trick-by-trick until it's easy to see how declarer so skillfully handled her cards. Below is the situation just before declarer leads a low diamond at trick 4:
A 9 7
------
K 9 6 2
A 9 2
6 4
Q J 8 5 4 ------
------ A 10 7 5 3
Q 10 6 5 K J 7 5
K Q 10 8
10 9 7
8
8 4

Now on the low diamond lead, the 8 in the closed hand means East must play the 10 or go low, allowing his partner to win the trick on a ruff. If he chooses the former, the hand would look like this on the nine-card ending:

A 9 7
------
K 9 6
A 9 2
6 4
Q J 8 5 ------
------ A 7 5 3
Q 10 6 5 K J 7 5
K Q 10 8
10 9 7
-----
8 4

Declarer has now lost two tricks to East's diamond tenace and East is on lead. If he leads a trump, declarer wins in dummy, takes a ruffing finesse with the K 9 of diamonds, gets back on a heart ruff. The hand now looks like this with 6 tricks to go:

A
------
9 6
A 9 2
------ ------
Q J ------
------ 7 5 3
Q 10 6 5 K J 7
K Q
10 9
------
8 4

Where it is evident that declarer can ruff a heart, cash the 9 of diamonds, sluffing a heart (or a club), and bring the contract home, losing two diamonds and a heart or club.
But East could elect to duck that second diamond lead, letting it ride around to West, who ruffs. This isn't terribly harmful to declarer since West is now out of trump and so cannot cut down heart ruffs. Declarer essentially loses the ruffing finesse the first declarer gets, but will have one more trump in dummy than the first declarer.
Hence, opening heart lead, J of diamonds, covered by the Q, a trump return, declarer running it around to dummy, now leading a low diamond, ducked by East, riding around to West, who ruffs. We would have a layout like this at the end of trick 4:

A 9 7
------
K 9 6
A 9 2
------ 4
Q J 8 5 4 ------
------ A 10 7 5
Q 10 6 5 K J 7 5
K Q 10 8
10 9 7
------
8 4


West is now on lead and chooses to lead a club. Declarer wins with the Ace and now has a jolly time cross-ruffing. He ruffs a diamond with the 8, a heart with the 7, a diamond with the 10, a heart with the 9, a diamond with the K, cashes the Q and concedes a club trick to the opposition. Declarer's winners are one heart, one club and eight spades (three ruffs in dummy, five trump in the long hand, it not being important whether they're used to ruff a lead from dummy or are cashed out, just as long as they win the trick (as the Q did).