A Piece of Cake -- not Always Eaten


A 10 2
Q 9 8 7 2
A K J 5 3
A
Q 6 5 3 J 9 7 4
4 3 10 6 5
9 8 4 3 Q 7
10 8 2 Q J 9 4
K 8
A K J
10 6 2 Vul: None
K 7 6 5 3 Opening lead: 3 of spades

This is an easy one. Declarer has 11 top tricks and the clear capability of developing a 12th with the J and 10 of diamonds. The contracts were mostly 6 hearts or 6 no, but some missed the slam, while a fair number of players were in grand slam, and a fair number of them made it! Of course we can see how 7 makes with the queen of diamonds dropping doubleton, though it isn't quite so easy to see how so many knew to go for the drop. (Actually, I can think of a line of reasoning that would lead to that play: You're missing the Q 9 8 7 with the 10 in the closed hand, which means it can be covered by an onsides queen. Which is to say that even with the queen on your left, you don't have 4 diamonds winners except on a 3-3 split. So that's an Q with West on a 3-3 split vs. the queen dropping short from either hand. I doubt if there's any great disparity in the odds. Well, lemme see. Perhaps I can work it out. The odds of a 3-3 split are 35%, but West must hold the queen, so that's about an 17.5% chance. The odds of a 4-2 split are 48%, those of any specific card being in the short hand being a third of that, of 16%. By golly, they are pretty close. (Yes, I didn't take into account a 5-1 split, etc., etc. Well, you can't have everything!)
Anyway, I'm primarily interested in those who couldn't count up to 11 top winners and simply develop a 12th through the J 10 of diamonds, which will produce a winner regardless of who holds the Q. For a fair number were making fewer than 12 tricks, and so I looked to see how. When I returned to the hand a few days later, after I'd decided to make this my first entry in Develop!, I was a little embarrassed to see that I didn't have as many malfunctioning declarers as remembered. The lowest six N-S pairs failed to pick up 12 tricks. However, four were in seven no, and may have lost the motivation for 12 when they were down one. One of those in 6 no was down four, and hardly in the ballpark, leaving one declarer who was down two. A tad ironically, no one was down just one trick in 6, which perhaps shouldn't be surprising, since if you're going to misplay the hand, perhaps it's not easy to misplay it by exactly one trick.
In any event, declarer should first count his winners. He has 11 (well, okay, assuming hearts aren't 5-0) and the obvious potential for a 12th with the lower 2 diamond honors, as mentioned. Take the finesse or go for the drop, as you wish: just make sure that the J and 10 of diamonds go on separate tricks. That's where your 12th trick has to come from, whichever you do. And do it before you lose communication between the two hands. Nothing should sidetrack declarer from that task of developing a third diamond winner. Then you can cash out. On a winning finesse, you might cash out for all the tricks, and on a losing, at least you have 12.
You don't have any looming communication problems, but one can see that with the clubs blocked and a natural impulse to cash out hearts, a careless declarer could find himself in a pickle if he's not careful. So that should be the first thing declarer does: assure himself of the third diamond, whether he finesses or goes for the drop, figuring to develop a trick on a lead to the 10 if the queen doesn't fall. Go to the ace of clubs, come back with a heart to assure yourself they're not 5-0, then hit the diamonds.
What did this declarer do? Well, lemme see. This one did get a spade lead, which he won with the king. He went to the ace of clubs, then back with a heart. Just what the doctor ordered. Now he cashed another heart. (Oh-oh. I'm getting a little nervous.) Now he cashed the third heart honor, and I can only say, oh no! He can still make the hand, of course, only now he has choices, which brings the possibility of guessing wrong. He can make on a losing finesse, not having cashed the king of clubs, the 10 of diamonds then being a re-entry. He can make on a winning finesse if he had already cashed the king of clubs. And of course dropping the queen doubleton works even better.
I'll never understand this penchant if I live to be a 100. It's not just that careless declarers find they have wiped out a necessary entry that gets to me. It's the frequency with which this is done as the first thing declarer sets himself to do! This hand could also be given under Communication,. Declarer wiped out easy communication before taking his key play in diamonds. He even played the king of spades on trick one, as if he needed to preserve entries to a hand where he had the A K of diamonds! And then, after that one-trick delay of cashing the ace of clubs, he rushed to wipe out access to the closed hand. You don't want to cash out established tricks early in the hand without good reason. I said on another hand that the only reason I can think of for cashing an established, can't-lose trick early in the hand is to transfer the lead. Oh, there are bound to be some peripheral reasons, such as above, I said you'll want to cash a heart to be sure they're not splitting 5-0 (though in fact, that coincides here with transferring the lead from which to take the finesse). But in the few weeks since I made that statement, no other reasons have surfaced.
Well, there's no reason going through what declarer should have done. A simple hand. It doesn't (or shouldn't) matter in which hand the spade is won. Unblocking the ace of clubs is necessary, and a heart to the closed hand is necessary if declarer has decided on a finesse. Take your finesse, lose it, but now you're home free for 12 tricks and a made slam.