A Bit Long in the Tooth -- but Still Worthy of Note


J 5 3 2
A 6 3
K 5
J 10 7 2
K 10 4 9 8 7 6
9 7 2 K Q 8 4
J 10 9 7 2 Q 8 6
5 3 A 4
A Q
J 10 5Contract: 3 no
A 4 3 Vul: N-S
K Q 9 8 6 Opening lead: J of diamonds

This hand was in Frank Stewart's column t'other day. It's, uh, been around awhile, or more properly speaking, the situation has a way of popping up every so often. I put it in my book Sixty Hands ten years ago, and had seen it at least once since then before this appearance. Further, I'd picked it up from a bridge publication wherein the writer said anyone could use the hand with or without attribution, with or without changes, and I thought that was a pretty good deal. So I'm not feeling very apologetic about reproducing the hand. As far as I'm concerned, it's in the public domain!
On top of that, I was a little disappointed that Mr. Stewart didn't discuss the lesson here, though of course, space limitations doubtless account for that. Anyway, here's the scoop: You have only one stopper in a threatening suit, can hold up until the third round and may have to lose the lead twice -- which you can afford as long as the second loss is to a hand without any more of that dangerous suit. Now:
1. You have to take a finesse into each hand. One of them allows you to develop a 9th winner. (That spade suit seems the same in every incarnation: A Q tight, J in dummy with at least two guards.) Now, quick: do you finesse into the dangerous hand first or the non-dangerous hand first? Ah, that's right: you finesse into the dangerous hand first. If the finesse loses, you hold up until the third round and then finesse into the hand (you presume) is out of that suit.
2. You have to take a finesse into the dangerous hand and knock out an ace (the hand above). Which do you do first? Yep. It's roughly the same thing. You've gotta finesse into the dangerous hand, hold up until the 3rd round of diamonds (here) and then knock out that ace. If the dangerous hand has it too, well, you probably couldn't make the hand, and have the consolation that you'll have company.
3. You have to finesse into the non-dangerous hand and knock out an ace. Yep, this time, you knock out the ace first, hold up till the third round of diamonds and then take the finesse. (Just for kicks, let's say East had indicated a strong showing in diamonds here. Then it would be right to knock out that ace of clubs before touching spades.)
4. And lastly, you're missing two aces, each of which has to be knocked out. The opponents didn't bid, and of course, neither ace is in the suit attacked. What do you do? Oh, you know the answer. You just toss a mental coin and lead. If the aces are in the same hand, it doesn't matter what you do. If they're split, your guess is as good as anyone's though if you guess wrong, your partner may have sage advice on how you should have known to knock out the other ace first!
On the above hand, development doesn't mean simply going for your predominant suit, i.e., not if that won't add up to 9 tricks. You've got to develop a ninth winner here while keeping the opposition away from a fifth. Count your winners. You've got 8 top winners with a 9th that can be developed in spades, whether the finesse wins or loses -- provided they don't get their 5th trick first. So it's a matter not of where a 9th winner can come from but of keeping the hand with five diamonds out of the lead for a 4th and 5th round of diamonds. The opening lead was won in dummy. Finesse into the dangerous hand first. It loses, but establishes the J. Hold up till the third round of diamonds, then lead a club and hold your breath.
P.S. How do you know which hand is the dangerous one? Here, I don't think it's altogether all that obvious, and believe the columnist was guilty of a touch of hindsight in telling us what declarer should have done. I don't see why West couldn't have led the jack of diamonds from J 10 9. Do you? So it behooves us to acknowledge that you won't always know which hand is the dangerous one and guessing wrong, may step into the very line that beats the contract. Still, I think the lesson a valuable one, and particularly when the suit has been bid by an opponent will you have a pretty good idea of which hand is dangerous. Let that opponent have the early lead if you must lose a trick.
And lest anyone get the wrong impression, I think Mr. Stewart writes a fine column.