How Many Entries do you need?

	8 7 6 5 3 2
	A K 10 7 3
	3
	K
Q J 10 9		A 4
J 2		8 6
9 4		K J 10 6 5
Q J 9 8 7		10 6 5 4
	K
	Q 9 5 4
	A Q 8 7 2	Contract: 6 hearts	Vul: None
	A 3 2	Opening lead: Q of clubs

This hand might also do well under Odds. The chances of 7 cards splitting 4-3 are considerably higher than 6 cards splitting 3-3. But suppose you don't need a 3-3 split and can manage with a 4-2. Then the real question becomes a matter of 7 cards splitting 4-3 vs. 6 cards splitting 3-3 or 4-2, and the odds favor the latter by a wide margin (about 84% to 62%). Of course you can't run to the mathematical tables during play, but there are two thoughts that might cross your mind: first, you must get a 4-3 split missing 7 cards, but can survive with two different distributions with 6 cards. Or secondly, there's clearly a greater chance for 5 cards out of seven to find their way to one hand than for five out of six to do so, no? Then, too, there's a far more serious matter: If you want to set up the closed hand by ruffing out diamonds, you've got to ruff four times in dummy (because you have to take care of the third club), i.e., four times taking the diamond hook! Whereas even on a 4-2 spade split, you've got to ruff only three times (after losing a round, which you'll do on any line).

So I'd think you'd want to develop spades, that is, if you'd have enough entries to ruff out the fourth round and get back to the last two. Lemme see. You've got two trump leads -- three if the J falls short -- and can ruff two clubs. (If push comes to shove and you've gotta ruff the A of clubs to cash two spades, I hope you wouldn't wonder what to do.) Further, the first round of spades can be led from either hand. So you really only need four entries (for the second through fifth rounds of spades). So you're looking at about 5 entries, when four will do. Hence, exploiting the spade potential looks much more appealing than the diamonds. But you've got to get to them right away.

A common mistake was to draw trump and then wonder what to do. You've got to use dummy's trump for entries to exploit spades. The opening lead wipes out one key entry, but you've got enough. Hence: play a spade at trick 2, ruff a club return, or let a trump ride to the 10 ---or higher if West plays the jack -- and ruff a spade. Well, rather than going back and forth, lemme presume East plays a club at trick 3. Ruff in dummy, ruff a spade, heart to the A, ruff a spade, heart to the K (noting with pleasure the 2-2 heart split) and ruff the fourth round of spades. Now you've got the A of diamonds and you've got an entry to the established spades, and need I say more?

Here are a couple of declarers (both getting the Q of clubs lead) who didn't find that not very complex way of making the contract (by a dummy reversal q.v). One went immediately to the A of diamonds and cashed the A of clubs, sluffing a spade. Sluffing a spade? It's one of those plays that probably didn't queer the contract in itself, but it sure didn't augur well. Why sluff a spade? It isn't as if he needs to get rid of the 6th spade. Which hand does he want to set up, anyway? Not clear, but with a diamond to the A, you'd think he'd want to get on with ruffing diamonds three times. Indeed, the K of spades wouldn't have been a bad card to play after ruffing a diamond (if he wants to establish diamonds) since he's going to need entries to the closed hand, and except for one trump lead, they must be spade ruffs. Indeed, you're going to have something of a crossruff, if you go to ruff out four cards in dummy.

Could the hand be made on a crossruff? Not bloody likely, but if the opponents are asleep, you might get by. You've got 3 top side-suit winners and thus would need every heart to be cashed separately on a ruff. The opponents not only have the opening lead, but you've got to lose a spade to get a crossruff going. So a trump lead at either opportunity would queer that plan. Nor do you have quite the top trump you'd like, but on the other hand, the opponents' shortages in diamonds and spades are situated favorably for you. And here's another way the opponents could beat a crossruff: East could queer that line by uppercutting on the third and fourth rounds of spades. On the third round, the 6 draws the 9 and on the 4th, the 8 draws the queen and you have no way of cashing the 5 of hearts. No, that won't work.

[Not sure why I was so bloody negative on a crossruff years ago, though it does require taking a diamond finesse, which works, but still doesn't look near as attractive as simply ruffing out the spades to establish dummy. But the crossruff would seem to work on one trump lead, and East wouldn't have two spot cards for uppercutting. Your winners would then be two clubs, two diamonds and eight trump. That's 9 trump, minus one for a trump lead. True, you couldn't live with two trump leads, but then you'd go to Plan B (i.e., setting up the spades), which indeed is safer and should've been Plan A.]

So this declarer wasn't on a path to make even with a 4-3 diamond break. Down one.

The next declarer went down 2: Win opening lead in dummy, take two rounds of hearts. Whoa! Now what are you going to do? No, you've got to ask where your winners are coming from, and with spades the obvious choice, you must preserve those top honors for entries as you also draw trump, allowing you the necessary entries to ruff out spades. After two heart leads, now came the A of diamonds, ruff a diamond (which might have been a valuable entry later after spades were started). Now declarer led a spade. Spade back. Oh, the opponents are friendly, here. But it's a little too late, and yes, I think it was that ill-advised diamond ruff that did it, i,e., assuming the same friendly spade lead would have ensued upon losing a spade a trick earlier. For now declarer has only two entries to dummy and needs three. He can ruff out two more spades, but would have no entry to cash the last two. Down two.

As with the first declarer, there doesn't seem to have been any plan here, any vision. Let's just cash out top winners and see what happens, eh? Declarer squandered two trump entries to dummy before getting around to the spades. Indeed, make that two trump leads and a diamond ruff. The gift from an opponent then left him only one entry shy of enough. Too bad.