Two Paths to Slam
|
 10 7 4 |
|
 Q 9 |
|
 A K 7 5 4 |
|  J 8 6 |
| 9 8 5 |
|
K 6 3 2 |
| J 7 4 3 2 |
|
K 8 6 5 |
|
| Q 6 |
| J 9 8 2 |
| 7 4 2 | |
Q |
|
A Q J |
|
|
A 10 |
|
|
10 3 |
Contract: 6 clubs | |
|
A K 10 9 7 5 |
Opening lead: 2 of clubs |
Only one pair bid slam on this hand, which was a bit of a surprise given that I have often seen upwards of a third of the field in an unmakable slam. And that declarer went down -- while two people in club partials and one in a club game picked up 12 tricks. Actually, there are two ways of making the slam. But you can't futz around with half-hearted measures winding up with neither, which this declarer did. Declarer took the opening lead, something of a gift, though come to think of it, any suit but diamonds would be something of a gift. Anyway, stop right here and tell me:
How many entries outside of diamonds do you need if you want to ruff out 3-3 diamonds, how many if they split 4-2, and how many entries do you have? How many entries do you need to forget about setting up a diamond trick in favor of taking the spade hook twice? The answer to these questions should pass through declarer's mind before he takes up trick two, for they are, respectively one, two and two (for the diamonds) and of course you have a super-abundant four entries if you wanna take the spade hook twice.
This declarer promptly took a second round of trump, cutting himself down to one entry outside of diamonds, which means he doesn't have enough for establishing the 5th diamond on the 4-2 split he's going to get. Nothing daunted, he cashed the top two diamonds, then ruffed a diamond, noting the 4-2 split. At this point, he neither has the entries for getting that 5th diamond nor enough to take the spade hook twice, and after having trashed every chance he had for his contract, he led a heart to the ace, and later led the A, then Q of spades, conceding that trick in addition to the heart trick declarer had to lose.
The two paths to 12 tricks have already been indicated. Ruff out the diamonds, using the 8 of clubs as a re-entry after ruffing the third round, then ruffing the fourth round, and back with the J of clubs (which also draws the last trump) to cash the 5th, sluffing a heart, and then take the spade hook on the off-chance that you'll find a K doubleton for 13. I rather like the ruffing out of the diamonds (as long as one plays for a 4-2 split which, gives declarer a high chance of success).
It's always a little disconcerting when either of two ways would bring the contract home, and declarer tries neither. When I said the club lead was something of a gift, it wasn't because the lead gave him an extra club trick, nor even an easy one, for no one can lose a club to that stiff queen. Rather it was because the opening lead simply clairifies the hand. A simple count brings us 6 clubs, one heart, two diamonds and 2 spades, regardless of where the K lies, for 11. And where can a 12th come from? Well, you can't do anything to develop another heart, so your only hopes are developing the 5th diamond, or taking a successful spade hook twice.
The hand can also be looked on as a lesson in the Odds, q.v. After the opening lead, declarer need only find diamonds no worse than 4-2, which is about an 84% chance. He'd be able to ruff the third and fourth rounds of diamonds high, so he would have had a guaranteed contract had he only tried cashing the top diamonds before drawing trump. But he spurned that possibility by leading a trump at trick 2, wiping out one of the leads necessary after the top diamonds had been cashed and the third round ruffed. At that point, his best bet was the 50% chance that the spade hook was on, a finesse he'd have to take twice, of course, and he could have done so as late as trick four when he cashed his second diamond honor, for he was still in dummy and had the J of clubs for a re-entry. But declarer spurned that possibility also by ruffing the third round of diamonds at trick 5, which works only if diamonds split 3-3, about a 34% chance, for now with one re-entry, he cannot establish the 5th diamond and get back to it, nor can he take the spade hook twice. So his flouting of the odds finally came home to roost and he had to go down.
Was it expensive? Well, the pair was on a path (until trick 2) to a 100% matchpoint score, as the only ones in slam. Instead, the sheer lack of any planning, of the right risk-taking necessary in diamonds left them with 2.5% matchpoints. Now that's expensive. And that's when either of two ways works!