Three Different Results

How'd They do That?

A 10 6 3
K 10 7 5
A J 9 2
J
J 8 4 7 2
A Q J 9 4 9 6
K 4 3 10 8 7 6
3 2 A 10 9 7 5
K Q 9 5
3 2
Q 5 Contract:4 spades
K Q 8 6 4 Opening lead: 4 of spades

I have the play at 3 tables here, declarers making 9, 10 and 11 tricks, where one would think it would be a wrap for 10 tricks, neither more nor less. Lemme start with the declarer who went down, for he displayed a tenuous grasp of entries, leading to his defeat.
Case 1: The opening lead rode to the 9 of spades, declarer now knocking out the A of clubs(!) Back came a spade, which declarer let ride to the A, coming back to the Q. He now cashed his top clubs, sluffing two hearts in dummy, followed by the Q of diamonds, covered, won in dummy, the J then cashed and a diamond was led from dummy, ruffed in the closed hand. Declarer could still have recovered at this point. The hand looked like this, with the lead in the closed hand:

10
K 10
2
------
------ ------
A Q J 8 9
------ 8
------ 10 9
------
3 2
------
8 6

Unfortunately, instead of using that last opportunity to lead a heart toward the K, declarer ruffed a club(!). It's a trick he's always got coming, and not so incidentally, is a stopper against the cashing of a club trick, and proved to be his undoing. In the wrong hand for the heart suit, declarer now led a low diamond from dummy, sluffing a low heart. East hopped up on that trick, cashed a top club and at trick 13, a heart lead went to West's Ace, and dummy's K, a totally wasted card.
Why is that? I mean, why would anyone put himself in the wrong hand in relation to the heart suit to cash a winner -- the last trump out -- he's always got coming? I have seen this any number of times, that declarers shy away from the lead that might lead to the setting trick, only to give themselves no chance of avoiding that setting trick. At which point they seem remarkable complacent about going down. Well, of course, I cannot see their demeanor, but they seem to be complacent. I have called it the fear factor elsewhere. They seem to be saying to themselves, "I don't wanna go down, I don't wanna go down," so they abjure any lead that could bring a setting trick until they're assured of that setting trick. Here I don't sense the "fear factor" so much as . . um-mmm, ineptitude. Why? Oh, I don't know. It stems partly from declarer's avoidance of key leads until -- and beyond -- he has no more opportunities. Also, is cashing of his top clubs long before he needs to. But I say that is only what comes across and I don't know.
Case 2: I was at first going to skip the plus 4 declarer, that being an illustration of competence on both sides, but why not run through it quickly: Opening lead a low spade, riding to the 5! A rather improbable winner on the first round of trump. Club to the J and East's A, spade to the Q, followed by the K. Declarer now cashed two club winners, sluffing two hearts in dummy, took the diamond finesse, the Q being covered, winning with the A, then playing the J and ruffing a diamond, followed by a low heart to toward the K, West winning and continuing the heart suit. Declarer now cashed the A of spades and conceded a diamond to East's 10.
What can one say? There is something clean and pristine about this line of play. No entries missed, no winners cashed too soon, no winners missed! Declarer rightly sluffed two low hearts on the clubs instead of two low diamonds. (One of each would've been all right, also). As the cards lie, it doesn't matter. But if the diamond hook loses, the sluff of two diamonds would've cost a trick, the third round, while the two lowest hearts in dummy can't do anything. Just plain, ordinary competent play. A minor work of art, one might say.
Case 3: This was played from the opposite side of the table. Opening heart lead, establishing the suit for declarer before he has any choice about it. The suit that bedeviled the first declarer is immediately clarified, but that's by no means the reason for the overtrick. Third hand won (remember the layout is rotated 180 degrees), and shot back another heart. Declarer followed that by ruffing a heart. I wouldn't recommend doing it so early, but in any event, he followed this with two rounds of trump, then a club to knock out the A, the defender now returning a low diamond, declarer ducking, third hand going up with the K -- and declarer had 3 diamond winners, and that's what did it.
The hand would've looked like this (now rotated 180 degrees to display what the players would be viewing):
9
------
Q 5
K Q 8 6
------ J
------ Q 8
10 8 7 6 K 4 3
10 9 7 3
A 10
10
A J 9 2
------

West, on lead with the A of clubs, now led a low diamond and East was pickled. In play, he went up with the K of diamonds. Declarer captured that with his A, cashed the A of spades, went to dummy with the Q of diamonds, cashed the K & Q of clubs, sluffing a heart and a diamond, now ruffed a club with the 10 and cashed the J of diamonds. Losing tricks only to the A of hearts and A of clubs. Not bad. For declarer.
East is blameless. The error consisted of West's low lead from the 10. If East ducks, declarer wins with the 9. Hmm-m-mm, it's not such a piece of cake as I had first supposed with a duck. Declarer wins with the 9, ruffs a heart, cashes one round of clubs, sluffing a diamond, and now he has a simple finesse for the remaining tricks.
West can save a trick by leading the top of his club sequence. Declarer can sluff only one card on the club holding. If he leads a second high club, East ruffs. Declarer can overruff, of course, but when you're ruffing, you're not sluffing. He would then ruff a heart in dummy and now get to diamonds, where it should be clear that whether he leads low to the A J, or he starts with the Q, he must lose the third round of the suit.
That 10 of diamonds is a valuable card. Should West have recognized this and shifted to a club? After all, he can see the top two clubs waiting for a chance to show their mettle. And could we not have two quick diamond tricks? Well, I dunno. Not if we count points necessary for a bid. The bidding starting with North went: one club, one spade, two spades, four spades. (There was a one heart overcall of one club by East.) Now South is showing an opening bid to jump to game on that bidding. And if East has both the A K of diamonds, South wouldn't have enough for that bid. So we'll have to give him one of those honors. And with that in mind, I'm going to hafta say Yes, West should've known, or suspected, if you will, that leading from his 10 of diamonds could cost a valuable trick. That's a big card. That's what keeps declarer from running off three diamond winners. There are a lotta configurations where whichever initiates a suit loses a trick.