His Only Chance

	A K
	A J 8
	A Q 6 5 3
	J 10 9
10 6 4		J 5
7 5 4		Q 9 2
10 2		J 9 8 4
A K Q 7 2		6 5 4 3
	Q 9 8 7 3 2
	K 10 6 3	Vul: N-S
	K 7	Contract 4 hearts
	8	Opening lead: A of clubs

The defense started with two club leads, declarer ruffing the second. He now unblocked the spades, cashed the A of trump, then the J, covered by East, taken by the K. At this point, the two sides traded errors. Declarer played the Q of spades, ruffed by East, who now returned a diamond. Declarer could now cash the 10 of hearts and run his spades along with a second diamond winner for an overtrick.

Declarer has an exiguous trump suit, alrightee, but it's not all that bad as the cards lie. He should cash his 10 of hearts, not because we can see it means two overtricks but because what's the alternative? There are two trump out. If they split 1-1, he's in clover. And if they're 2-0, well, he's doubtless going down, but that'll teach ya to go for those exiguous fits, particularly when you've got an 8-card fit begging to get in the game. And besides, down by how many? On the 5-4 clubs, that would mean four club winners (since one was ruffed) and a trump winner. Minus 200. Compare that with the 600 plus he stands to gain on a 1-1 split. Three to one? You've gotta go for the higher score.

Further, what's the alternative? I mean, not banging down the ten allows the defense to use its last two trump separately, in effect giving them a 2-0 split at that point when it's not even there. It's rather like heads we win (going for the even split), tails we break even (losing the same number of tricks whether trump were 2-0 or 1-1). What kind of sense does it make to scorn those odds? Heads I win, tails we break even? Huh! You wouldn't go for heads?

But all was not lost! East ruffed the third round of spades and led . . .a diamond! Now declarer was able to cash his 10 of hearts and run the rest of the tricks for an overtrick. East should certainly have forced declarer with a club lead. (Declarer, of course, isn't literally "forced" to ruff. He might indeed duck a round of clubs, hoping the defender with the last trump will be exhausted of clubs on the lead that is ruffed. Now declarer leads his winners, forcing the defender (eventually), and if that defender has no more clubs, it's down one. Two club losers, two trump lost. If he has the last club, it's down 2. Anyway, a club lead would have done it here for the defense, and so the only question is, could East, should East have known to lead a club?

And the answer can only be .... yes! If declarer has both remaining trump, East must wonder why his opponent let him have that ruff when he could have drawn your last trump with the 10 and claimed. Okay, maybe declarer made a boo-boo, but what's the alternative to reading declarer for an exiguous trump suit with one trump left? A trump that a club force would draw from declarer's hand -- while West has one himself? Leading into the A Q of diamonds on East's right? ! ! How does leading into the A Q of diamonds do anything for the defense by any distribution of the cards?

So a tad ironically, perhaps, East is faced with the exact same situation as declarer was a trick earlier: heads (leading a club) we win (if declarer has only one trump), tails (declarer has two trump), we concede. Which is better? I meant it's another heads we win, tails we break even (meaning the hand's over no matter what East does)? You don't like those odds either? Just as declarer had nothing to lose banging down the 10 of hearts, so East had nothing to lose leading a club when declarer so foolishly let him ruff a spade.

But let me go back a few tricks. I think it ill-advised to cover that J of hearts. Let declarer take the risk of a finesse if he wishes, but the cover works only if West has the 10. Since East has the 9, it works whether West started with 2 or 3 hearts. But it also means that declarer with a one-way finesse against the Q has chosen to take a non-finesse by leading the J to be captured by whoever has it rather than leading toward the jack. Yes, I've seen a number of these non-finesses and even have a category for them. Still, I think you'd do well to suppose that declarer has the 10, or why isn't he finessing toward the J? And if so, the cover cannot do any good, with the outside chance that declarer (with perhaps 8 hearts), seeing a non-cover will chicken out and go up. Yes, I've seen that too, indeed, more often than the non-finesse of leading a J toward a Q while missing the 10).