What a Hand!


K 9 6 4 2
10 8 6
K Q 2
Q 9
7 J 10 8 5 3
A 9 5 4 3 ------
10 4 3 9 8 7 6
K J 10 8 6 5 4 3
A Q
K Q J 7 2
A J 5 Contract: 5 hearts, 6 hearts, 6 no
A 7 2 Opening lead: 7 of spades, others

What a hand! What are the odds for a 5-0 split in hearts? Wrong question. You don't need to know the odds. You only need to guard the suit against that holding in either hand, which you can do by leading the K (Q or J) first round. That will allow you to finesse against the 9 regardless of which hand holds 5 hearts. And while I'm on odds, what are the odds of a 5-1 spade split in a heart contract with a spade opening lead? Without a spade opening lead? Perhaps I could reword that question: in a heart contract and opening leader has a singleton spade, what are the odds that he'd lead it? I have taken that up elsewhere. The naming of hearts as trump won't change the mathematical odds of a 5-1 split with 6 outstanding cards. But a singleton with the opening leader might well change the decision of a defender.
Anyway, on to the hand. I must confess that I mis-analyzed it at first. I figured on four heart winners, 3 spades, 3 diamonds and 2 clubs for 12. Nice if you can get it. But it was only after I went over why declarers were going down that I saw that you can't make the hand against good defense, since you have to lose a trick to get 4 hearts and lose a trick to develop a second club winner, and that's two for the other guys. So now I went to the guys who did make the hand and found: every single one got a club lead from West. Three were on opening lead, one at trick 2 after cashing the A of hearts (making the hand awfully easy for declarer), one at trick 5 and one at trick 7, each after winning the previous trick with the A of hearts, of course. Never lead from a king? Well, of course, you could hardly follow that supposed rule blindly and it is properly scorned in learned circles. Nevertheless, leading from a king can be deadly and should not be undertaken lightly. Your honors are the backbone of any hand, both on defense and for declarer.
But wait. Of the six declarers who got that gift of a club lead, two of them misplayed their hearts and should have been inhibited from getting more than 3 heart winners. One declarer went up on an opening heart lead with the 10! I just don't understand. Why wouldn't you try the 8, for instance, either picking up the trick cheaper or drawing the 9 to make your 7 as formidable as the K. And how come he didn't lose two hearts? Well, declarer cashed two spade tricks, and West absolutely rushed to discard a valuable heart (this being a no trump contract, of course), even though his diamonds are clearly not worth a tinker's dam. Now declarer could pick up the heart suit with the loss of only one heart.
And the other declarer got a similar gift. This one got a diamond lead, declarer led to the 10 of hearts, and now this declarer cashed the A Q of spades, getting a heart discard, so that defender was only a trick behind his confrere in ridding himself of that valuable card that would have allowed picking up two heart tricks.
In Four-Card Suits, q.v., I briefly discussed why the emphasis was on four-card suits, not five-card, and my explanation was that all the arguments that apply to four-card suits apply to five-card, but the latter, i.e., two five-card suits on opposing sides, are far rarer than the former for battling each other. In each case, the defender had ample knowledge that declarer also started with 5 hearts and could see, the defender, that is, the 9 and should have been able to figure out that the 9 will hold up for the 5th round of the suit when declarer cavalierly plays the 10 first round, whether the defender ducks two rounds and sits with A 9 over J 7 or takes the A sooner (getting an honor) and gets out with a diamond, knowing that declarer can't pick up the 5th round. But it wasn't to be with those two defenders.
Then I went to a declarer who went down 2 in six hearts, and I've already given away the reason. Opening lead the 7 of spades to the Q. Declarer cashed the K of hearts, went to the 8 and then cashed the 10 as West ducked throughout. Well, he got his hearts right. Now declarer came to the A of spades and . . . oh, please. Even aside from the opening lead, you started with 7 spades and only 6 diamonds. That doesn't prove anything. But when push comes to shove, wouldn't you rather go with a suit with two even modest indicators as a better suit to lead than spades? I shore would.
What if with the same number of spades and diamonds I got a diamond opening lead? Oh, I'd go with the spades then. Remember, we'd be talking about the first round of spades and second round of diamonds. Oh, no, I'd have to have some suspicion about any opening lead in a trump contract. What are the odds that your partner will not be upset if you throw away a makable contract? Well, if partners were upset with unsuccessful partners, there were a lot of upset partners, for there were about 20 declarers going down, including 2 in 5 hearts, and some on multiple undertricks. If I enjoy going over hands kicked away by carelessness, there was a virtual cornucopia here. Well, lemme look at some declarer play, starting with the two down in 5.
Spade to the ace. Heart to the 10. Whoa! You don't need to know the odds here. Look at the 8 in one hand and the 7 in the other. Lead the K against that remote possibility of a 5-0 split and you'll be able to finesse against the 9 in either hand holding five hearts. However, this person is only in 5 and should have been able to

Hm-m-mmm. That was a surprise (in going over the hands a few years later). I guess I was intending to fill out some commentary and simply forgot that I hadn't finished off. However, I believe I'll let the hand stand as is, for it is an intersting hand and offers a number of lessons, from the danger of leading from an honor, to the foolishness of winning a trick with the 10 when you can win with the 8 without any inconvenience if covered by the 9, to the danger of using the opponents' chosen suit for opening lead to change the lead in a trump contract when you've got another suit with fewer cards, to the absolute absurdity of sluffing from your long suit where declarer has as many cards or might have as many when you've got some very useless cards in another suit.