Dance of the Red Suits (part two)
This hand was given, rotated 90 degrees, from the standpoint of a 5 heart bid here. Four hearts would have been a cakewalk, but the N-S pair below have an obvious good sac at five diamonds, at which we might presume that some would have gone to 5 hearts, while others would not have. Ten tricks (as in hearts) here would have been a cakewalk here, but declarers might well have some vision of making 5 diamonds. Can it be done?
|
 K J 9 8 4 2 |
|
 ------ |
|
 A Q 8 |
|
 J 9 5 4 |
| A 10 7 3 |
|
6 5 |
| J 6 3 |
|
A K Q 10 7 2 |
| J 5 |
|
6 |
| A K Q 2 |
|
10 8 7 3 |
|
Q |
|
|
9 8 5 4 |
|
|
K 10 9 7 4 3 2 |
|
|
6 |
|
Declarer has an obvious two losers to the black aces here. Now if he could ruff just two hearts in dummy and sluff two on the K J of spades, he'd have his contract. The defense's best counter is to lead trump twice, cutting declarer down to one heart ruff. Declarer has a counter to that by leading a spade to the Q at trick two after a trump lead. West wins and leads another trump. But declarer has an easy answer to that. He wins in dummy, ruffs a spade, and now on a heart ruff, he has an entry to the established spade suit on which he tosses three hearts.
But wait a minute. There's no law that says West has to win the first round of spades. Suppose he ducks it, allowing declarer zero spade losers, but saddling him with the specter of two heart losers in addition to a club. For declarer would now need three entries to dummy to establish spades: one to knock out the ace, another to ruff out the fourth-round potential of the ten and a third to cash spade winners. Does declarer have a counter to that, to West ducking the Q of spades?
Lemme see. He ruffs a heart, ruffs a spade, ruffs a heart and . . . and . . . No, on an opening trump lead, he would still have to lose two hearts and a club. No, let's say he ruffs a heart, plays the K of spades, sluffing a heart. So West gets his ace of spades after all, but he leads trump one more time, and declarer can ruff only that one heart, then sluff one on the J of spades, leaving him still with another heart, or 3 losers, counting the black aces.
It's a worthy sac with a potential for making if the defense isn't careful, but it looks to me as though the defense can prevail for 3 tricks anyway, inhibiting a make.