Major over the Minor?


Q 9
3
A K Q 10
A K Q 6 3 2
J 6 5
8 4 A Q J 7 6 5
9 8 6 5 4 2 J 7 3
J 7 4 9 8 5
A K 10 8 7 4 3 2
K 10 9 2
------ Opening lead: various
10 Contract: 6 ?

K Q 8 5 3 2
10
Q 3
Q 9 5 3
J 9 4 6
A Q J 9 7 5 K 8 6 4 2
4 J 7 5 2
7 4 2 10 8 6
A 10 7
3
A K 10 9 8 3 Opening lead: various
A K J Contract: 6 ?

These two hands dovetailed into something I'd said just a few days ago, so I thought I'd bring them in, and since they don't allow for much discussion, I thought I might as well give both. What I said was that when I have a choice between a major and a minor suit for slam, I want to go for the major. For after all, I'm going to come out ahead when both make and when only the major makes. But if you languish in the minor, you come out ahead when only the minor makes. And that just doesn't give you any percentage.
On the first hand above, 6 spades brought 42% in matchpoints. Six clubs brought 5.26%, while a pair in the ridiculous contract of 6 diamonds got 1.32%. So the disparity between the major and the minor slams making was roughly ten times as great as that between the minor making and the minor not making. Down 2 in fact. How do you like them odds?
As for the other hand, we see that six diamonds can make. But it requires a risky finesse of the 10 of diamonds on the second round of the suit, and nobody chanced it. A word to the wise?
Here's a look at a few bidding strategies. In the first hand, over a club opening bid by North and a heart overcall (or was it 2 hearts?), South made a negative double. A negative double on an 8-card suit? A major 8-card suit? It makes no sense. All those in the right contract had jumped to 4 spades over East's overcall, and that seems about right. Four spades tells North two things: South has a self-supporting suit and can live with a singleton spade in North's hand; and secondly, even if North has a minimum opener, South wants to be in game. Period. North is looking at something more than a minimum, and to boot, has every suit stopped at least beyond the first round, and so has no hesitation about going to slam.
With the second hand, two pairs both found the spade fit and then went to six diamonds where they stayed. It just makes no sense. If you've got a spade fit, you don't then want to go to a minor, for heaven's sake. Neither member of that pair should have allowed that.