Costly in Both Directions


K 8 2
A 5
A J 10 4 2
J 8 4
3 10 9 7 6
9 8 6 4 3 K Q 10
Q 7 6 5 3 K 9 8
K 10 9 7 2
A Q J 5 4
J 7 2
------ Opening lead: 9 of hearts, K of clubs
6 Contract: 4 spades

This hand would seem to be cold for 11 tricks on any opening lead and any declarer. You've always gotta lose a heart and a club, and in the other direction, how can you miss 5 spades, 4 clubs and two aces? Or if you wanna looks at losers, how can you lose more than a heart and a club? In light of that, I guess it's fitting that four spades making 5 was exactly 50%. Which would have been the score had everyone been in spades making 11 tricks. But a lot weren't making 11 tricks. Some made more, some made less, and here is the penalty or reward ensuing. A second overtrick, offered by the two defenders who led the K of clubs, garnered 98.57. So that K of clubs lead cost the defense over 48 matchpoints!
Conversely, declarers were were indifferent enough to "comfortably" make 10 tricks got a 14.29%. A pretty lousy score for being in the right contract -- and making it! One declarer took the heart opening lead in dummy, cashed the ace of diamonds, sluffing a heart, which could have been delayed, but did no harm, and lost a heart, and ditto for that. It doesn't do any harm, but why?
Oh, oh! I see the problem now. It did do declarer harm. For no reason at all, declarer gave the opposition the ability to cut him down to the same number of trump as East, with the K of clubs yet to go (and missing the K 10 9 in clubs, you've almost surely got a club loser whoever holds the king). Of course, of course, of course. It's another illustration of cashing out too soon, though here it isn't a winner that does declarer in (though it did make the parlous situation possible) so much as losing that round of hearts, as if there would be some value to stripping the hand of hearts.
Declarer should take three rounds of trump, ending in dummy and then the club hook (after cashing the A of diamonds, of course), winning the second round of clubs so as to draw the last trump. Oh, there are several other things he could do, including losing a heart on the second trick, knowing he'll have access to the diamond ace, and thus inhibiting a diamond lead that hurts.
Anyway, declarer took one round of trump with the A, and, without knowing of the 4-1 split, abandoned trump and led a low club to the J. West went up and led a diamond, of course. Declarer ruffed with the jack (though he still had the 4), cashed the Q of spades, went to the J of clubs and back to the A, another club was ruffed by East, declarer ruffed a heart lead, and now ruffed a club with the K, East underruffing with the 9. Scraping through with 10 tricks.
Since declarer couldn't get less than zero, you'll note that he was closer to anyone who didn't even make the contract than to anyone who made just one overtrick. So much for getting lazy in the assurance that you'll make your contract. When overtricks are easily garnered, which is to say, with a lot of your peers will be getting those ovetricks, it becomes very expensive to let them slip from your fingers.
Three no plus five garnered 88.57! Remember 4 spades plus 5 only got 50%. So that's a powerful lot for an extra 10 points! To be sure, it's a lot for 10 points and less than sterling defense.