Incredible

	Q 8 4
	K J 5 3
	A Q 8
	9 8 2
A J 3		10 9 7 5
9		10 2
10 9 7 5 2		6 3
K Q 10 7		A J 5 4 3
	K 6 2
	A Q 8 7 6 4
	K J 4	Opening lead: various
	6	Contract: 4 hearts

You can see at a glance that nobody's going to make 12 tricks and nobody's going to miss 10 in a heart contract. So the only question at issue is whether declarer picks up an 11th trick or not. But oh what a difference it makes in this matchpoint game. Those defenders who allowed an 11th trick got 7.14%, while holding declarer to 10 tricks was worth 56.12 for the defenders! I don't know if I've ever seen such a great disparity for an overtrick, as declarers more than double their score for that overtrick from 43.88 to 92.86.

Eight defenders allowed that trick, and I decided to see how and found about 6 different ways, to wit: (1) A heart lead, declarer loses a club to East who leads the 10 of spades, West going up with the A! This, unlike most of the others'gift of a second spade winner for declarer, wasn't altogether obvious. Was East possibly leading from K 10 9, expecting his partner to win with the ace and shoot a spade right back through the Q? Those in a long-term partnership might be able to read that correctly, but I don't know that West can be regarded as totally at fault. Incidentally, you might note that this is the exact equivalent of a double hook you've doubtless often taken as declarer, that is the exact equivalent as far as the cards are concerned. It's not such an equivalent as far as perception is concerned, for here the would be double-hookers aren't looking at the hand across the table, but at one to the right or left. Well, I'd give West (though perhaps not East) a pass on that one.

(2)This was a strange one with a totally bizarre play. When declarer led toward the Q, West properly went low. Now a few tricks later, when declarer led the 6 of spades from the closed hand, West with A J went in with the ace! I looked closedly to see if he still held the J and he sure did. A senior moment?

(3)This defender made a totally inexcusable discard of the 3 of spades on the second round of trump. The play had been an opening club lead, ruffed, heart to dummy, ruff a club, heart to dummy, ruff a club. It was on that second heart to dummy that West discarded the 3 of spades, a card worth far, far more than the fourth-round club honor could possibly be. Yes, I've said elsewhere that in a trump contract, you can lose a trick in a suit where you start with a void. But on a 6-4 trump holding? Please. In addition, West held five diamonds and surely might have spared one of them rather than that 3 of spades. Anyway, this allowed declarer to take an obligatory finesse. He leads to the Q of spades and back, ducking to the now bare ace.

(4) Declarer led low to the Q and West went up with the ace. Oh me. This is particularly inexcusable with the Q showing. If your partner doesn't have the K, then declarer has it and you'll get it later. If the K were showing, yes, one might ask, "Is he trying to push a singleton past me?" Oh, to be sure it's not so cut-and-dried. It might be possible on another hand with K doubleton in the closed hand to push a winner through with the Q and then sluff the K. Yes, possible. Well, there's almost always a situation that could make your play wrong. But West certainly shouldn't get uptight about going low with that Q showing. The "rules" aren't inviolate. But they sure do bear paying attention to.

(5)The first duplication: West discarded the 3 of spades, only on a later trick, and now declarer could claim 2 spade winners on that obligatory finesse.

(6)This defender discarded the 3 of spades also, but he had an out, for declarer led a low spade from dummy to the K and A (after having stripped his hands of both clubs and diamonds). But because West captured the K, he could have saved the day by leading the J. Declarer can win with the Q of spades, but must give up another spade soon enough. Instead, West led a diamond, allowing a sluff and ruff, and declarer had his overtrick.

(7)This defender led the A of spades at trick two, after holding the opening lead with the K of clubs. Of those guys had been in slam, yes, but against a 4 bid? Not wise to be in such a hurry. You wanna get something with that ace, ya know.

This declarer was actually in five spades, so a third trick for the defense wouldn't have merely lifted them from 7% to 52%, but more likely from 7 to about 100! This one did the same as number 6. When in with the A of spades, though with a bit of observation, he should have known there were no more diamonds around the table, he led a diamond allowing a sluff & ruff and a whopping jump in declarer's score.