A Greater Difference Between . . .


Game & Game Plus One than Between Game and Down One

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J
Q J 7
A Q J 9 8 5
K 3 2
K Q 10 3 2 8 4
A 3 10 6 2
7 6 4 K 2
J 9 7 Q 10 8 6 5 4
A 9 7 6 5
K 9 8 5 4
10 3
A Pass

Several weeks ago I came across a greater difference between game plus one overtrick and two overtricks than between two overtricks and slam. I said at the time that the next significant peculiarity I'd be looking for was a greater difference between game without an overtrick and game with an overtrick than between game and going down! Actually I came across a couple in short order. This is my third, but the first I've gotten around to writing up.
Four hearts with an overtrick brought in 69.81. Without an overtrick, 30.19 and down one, 11.32. So there's a, call it, 39-point gain for that overtrick, but between making and down one, only a 19-point difference. Now, this is matchpoints where you are scored on the basis of how you performed relative to your counterparts. IMP scoring is far closer to total-point scoring, where a 30-point overtrick is about a fifteenth of a non-vul game and less than a twentieth of a vulnerable game and so won't bring such a great disparity or penalty, if you will, for missing an overtrick or maybe two.
Still, it kinda brings into question the presumption that making your contract is declarer's first and primary task. Actually, I wouldn't dismiss that primary aim too quickly. That is your primary aim after a freely bid contract. Still (in matchpoints, now), I think you'll want to think in terms of the maximum effectiveness of the cards you've been dealt. And once a contract appears secure, look to overtricks.
On the above hand, the A of hearts and a heart continuation would seem to queer the contract. Still, declarers weren't getting that defense. And with a club or diamond lead, declarer should have a merry time on a crossruff. Decline the diamond finesse, if that is the lead, unblock clubs, cash the ace of spades and ruff a spade, then pitch a diamond on the K of clubs and start ruffing away. West can overruff only with the ace, which you've always got to lose, and if you get in three ruffs in dummy, it won't matter that West leads a heart after the overruff.
East on the other hand cannot ruff until the third round of spades, at which time, he cannot overruff dummy's honors. Declarer can't know he's going to get such good luck, but then, you've got to make winners of something in dummy to take care of all those spades. Actually, without a diamond lead, wherein you can unblock the clubs and then use the ace of diamonds to reach the other top honor, one ruff of the second round of diamonds sets the whole suit up. Declarer lays down the K of hearts, and if it holds, goes to the Q of hearts, and if that holds (everyone following), he will run diamonds until your opponent ruffs in with the ace, and returning on a spade ruff, finish off running the diamonds.
That would be extraordinary luck to find the K of diamonds falling into your lap, but it's not luck to think of ruffing three spades in dummy, coming back once with a club, with diamonds on other re-entries, losing only the A of hearts and a spade at the end. For five, and a very good score.