Preference Bid? Balanced over Unbalanced?


7 6 3
Q 10 9 8
A J 8 2
K 8
K J 9 2 A Q 10 8 5
J 5 2 K 6 3
9 6 3 7 5
10 7 4 9 6 2
4Opening lead: 2 of spades
A 7 4 Contract: 5 clubs, 5 & 6 diamonds
K Q 10 4
A Q J 5 3

SouthWestNorthEast
1 Pass 1 1
Dbl * 2 3 Pass
4 Pass 5 All pass* Alerted
There are several lessons to be picked up from this hand, the most glaring being a combination of Preference Bids, q.v., plus the Balanced over the Unbalanced, q.v. It's just unbelievable that anyone would show preference for declarer's second suit with a doubleton while holding four cards in the first! It's true that North did show support for the first suit, but that was before the second was offered, so five clubs certainly looks like preference. On top of that, North should be looking for the balanced fit over the unbalanced. So there certainly should have been no vector toward preferring that second suit, regardless of how many cards South has in it.
How many tricks can you make in clubs? In diamonds? And the answer can only be four or five in the former, depending on a guess in hearts, always at least five in diamonds and maybe six on a friendly defense. How do you like them apples? In five clubs, you've gotta lose a spade and guess right on a heart lead to the Q 10 to make 5.
[Actually, with those heart tickets, your best bet is leading twice toward the ace. This works on the 75% chance that East has at least one of the honors. Here, if you lead the Q, you've got the suit for only one loser on the first round. If you lead the 10 and push it through to the J, you've now got to complete the double finesse. This doesn't work if West has both honors, of course, but this fails probably more often because declarers chicken out on taking the second finesse. Reverse the defensive honors, and of course that means the Q goes to the K on your left, and you must take the second finesse. Well, now, a qualification is necessary: In a diamond contract, without a spade lead, your first task after getting out trump is to sluff those three spades from dummy. That's a positive escape from a spade loser. You won't have the entries to lead twice toward the A of hearts, but might still guess right for only one loser. In a club contract, you've always got a spade loser, regardless of the opening lead, but would have ample entries in diamonds, once trump are out, to lead hearts toward the ace twice. ]
In diamonds, you can sluff three hearts on the club differential, but can ruff only once, assuring you of 11 tricks in any event. The friendly defense of a spade opening lead and spade continuation, which several declarers got, allowed 12 tricks. Declarer ruffs the second lead, goes to the K of clubs and ruffs a third, cashes the K of diamonds, overtakes the Q to draw trump with the A and J, and now runs clubs. Winners are six diamonds, five clubs and a heart. No, you don't want to rely on defensive gifts. Just take advantage of them when they occur. But the point is that if there is defenisve misplay, you're far better situated with a balanced suit for trump.
It's a friendly defense, because without those two leads, you wouldn't have the entries needed to do all that. Try getting six diamond winners in a club contract. You cannot, nor could you get five. Try getting more than 5 club winners in a club contract. You cannot. And that's why you want the balanced suit for trump when faced with a choice between two minors or two majors.
The matchpoint scores are also worth noting. Five diamonds brought 59%. Five diamonds with an overtrick: 79%. Six diamonds: 97%. So there was a slightly greater disparity between a "mere" overtrick in 5 diamonds and not getting the overtrick than between the overtrick and a successful slam! Slams are traditionally the great desideratum of bridge. You simply take a greater chance than the chickens in game. So how does a slam lift one's score over a game plus overtrick less than the overtrick does over game alone? Well, there you see it. It just does. So particularly in matchpoint events do you want to knuckle down to the overtrick that may or may not be available.
Anyway, here are a few declarers at play: One declarer got a spade opening lead and spade continuation, as friendly a defense as you could ask for -- and sluffed a club on the second spade lead. A loser on a loser? No, that's a winner on a loser. The fifth club in the solid suit has to be a winner! And sluffing winners is not a good idea.
Another declarer got the same spade opening lead and spade continuation, ruffed it and led a heart to the Q and K! So quickly you lead a heart? You don't hafta lose any hearts. You sluff 'em on clubs. You have two clubs in one hand, 5 in the other. That means 3 sluffs when the suit is solid. You sluff three hearts and there is only one left for the ace. But what about the last spade? Well, the opponents have shown you the way. With a lot of communication (holding the top five trump on a 3-2 split and the K of clubs), you go to dummy and ruff the third spade, draw trump, run clubs and claim -- 12 tricks.
Here are a few who made 12 tricks: Spade A, spade continuation ruffed, club to the K, ruff the last spade, K of diamonds, overtake the queen with the A, cash the J, sluffing a heart, cash the 8 of diamonds, sluffing a second heart and run clubs.
Another: A of spades, club to the K, ruff a spade, K of diamonds, Q overtaken by the Ace, ruff the last spade, A of clubs, Q of clubs, sluffing a heart, 5 of clubs, sluffing a heart, J of clubs ruffed and overruffed! If you're ruffing, you're not sluffing, so declarer can only sluff 2 hearts on the clubs. Eight of diamonds, sluffing a heart from the closed hand, Q of hearts, covered with the K, taken by the A, the J falling (!) and so the seven of hearts to the 10 took the last trick. Had West saved a guard to his J of hearts instead of the totally useless K of spades, the contract could have been beaten for a matchpoint jump of about 90 points! He would have done better to ruff the fourth club rather than the fifth. Well, he should have known that the K of spades was useless and that a twice-guarded jack is no small potatoes. Still, had he ruffed the fourth club, he's not even pseudo-squeezed on the last diamond lead. Even if he keeps that danged K of spades and sluffs a heart, he's got J doubleton and declarer must lose a heart trick. That club shift is a killer and shows how friendly the continuation of spades was. Declarer can ruff a spade, get back and ruff the last spade, but will be left with K of diamonds bare opposite A 8 2, only one round of trump having been drawn, meaning he can't afford to overtake the king and he has no entry to the ace once the king holds for the second round of trump. Yes, there is a way, we note (with little enthusiasm): Ruff a spade with the 10, diamond 4 to the 8, ruff a spade with the K, overtake the Q and cash the J of diamonds. But c'mon. Who's going to finesse the 8 of diamonds first round? Not even an expert is likely to.
Another got lucky in another way: A of spade opening lead, low heart, ducked around to the Q. This declarer only needs to sluff two hearts now on the clubs and hence can sluff one spade, and hence need ruff only one more spade, which will come easily on the 3-2 diamond break.