Mix-up


K
A
A J 8 6 3 2
J 10 8 4 3
A J 8 6 5 2 9 4
10 7 6 K Q J 5 4 3 2
5 4
K Q 5 A 6 2
Q 10 7 3
9 8
K Q 10 9 7 Vulnerability: N-S
9 7 Opening lead: 6 of hearts

In my discussion on sacrifice bidding, I ended saying that I have one short rule on sacrificing Vul against Non-Vul: Don't. It's not that such chances never happen, it was possible on the hand above, which I'll get to in a minute. But they are awfully difficult to work out reliably. You've gotta know that you're within one trick of your sac bid, a difficult task to feel certain about in the first place, and that's only half the battle. The other is that you've gotta know that they can make their bid! If you're wrong on either count, you've probably got a bad board.
Probably? Yes, there is one possible result (in being wrong on one of those counts) that works to the would-be sacrificer's advantage, and that of course is to find that he makes his bid. And indeed, I might qualify my opposition to such sacrifice bids by saying that when one feels that he'll probably make and at worst be down one, then the bid would make sense, yes, even if declarer runs into unusually bad luck and is down two. We have to be tolerant of reasonable bids that go awry.
But failing that one situation when you think maybe you're bidding to make, or in other words, when you regard the bid as a sacrifice, I think it's dangerous and far more likely to turn out badly than not.
Below are the bidding schemes of two pairs who took a flyer over the opponents' makable 4 heart bid. Both went down 2 for a bad board. The one in five bid well and played badly, while the one in six bid badly and played well. And so it goes.

EastSouthWestNorth
4 Pass Pass 4 NT
Pass 5 Dbl Pass
Pass 6 Dbl All pass

EastSouthWestNorth
4 Pass Pass 4 NT
Pass 5 Dbl All pass

The one in six did what he could with the cards, but of course always has to lose two clubs and a spade. But his bidding was hopeless and that extra level cost him. Four no has to be a very unusual no trump (for the two lowest unbid suits) and South should've respected it. Further, when there's not much bidding room and you've only got one bid coming, and it may or may not be a sac bid, you'd probably do well to throw "Major over the Minor" out the door and bid your best suit.
The other South bid more wisely -- and then kicked away a trick for some reason. This declarer won the opening heart lead and proceeded to knock out the K of spades! Why, for heaven's sake? What is he going to do with the Q now? Sluff a club? But you can ruff those clubs, even on the worse trump break. Declarer only used trick 2 to establish a redundant winner -- or worse, which was to come.
West won the spade lead and led another heart, ruffed in dummy, led one round of diamonds, and now, yes, he did lead the Q of spades to sluff one of dummy's clubs. He's still alive, of course, but . . he now ruffed a spade, lost a club to West's K and . . .oh, my, here it is: West played the J of spades, declarer sluffing the 8 of clubs in dummy! Oh, no! What can one say? With all those lovely trump in dummy, with indeed such powerful cards as the A & J (along with the 8), declarer sluffed a club which he can ruff at leasure (or sluff on trump leads if he ruffs out the closed hand's spades. I just don't understand.
In my discussion of sacrifice bidding, I faced the seeming anomaly of starting with a reverse-vul sac that works (i.e., if people keep the bidding as low as possible and play well). Actually, it's largely because such hands, where the sac would work, are rare that I chose to start with this one.
I was just about to throw this paper away when I noticed some notations that the reader might find interesting. Sixteen pairs were in 5 hearts, down one. I'm going to hazard the guess that almost all were pushed by a 5 diamond bid. So that's another advantage of a well-considered sac bid. Oh, I note another scribble: 3 pairs pushed to 5 hearts. Does that mean that 13 settled there after a slam try? Dunno, I'm afraid. Two in 5 hearts doubled made on a sluff&ruff by a defender. And the saddest: 5 were in 6 diamonds doubled without being pushed by a 5 heart bid. They expected to make!