Double Trouble


K 7
K J 9 7 5
8 6 5
7 4 2
Q 5 2 A 10 8 6 4 3
10 8 3 2 A 4
9 7 A Q 10 3
K 10 9 6 8
J 9
Q 6
K J 4 2 Vulnerability: E-W
A Q J 5 3

North East South West
Pass 1 2 2
3 4 Pass Pass
5 Dbl All pass

The hand here illustrats perhaps the two commonest pitfalls in sacrificing, the first of just plain inviting too disastrous a penalty to make the sac viable. And the second is that the defense can't make their bid in the first place.
First, can those guys make 4 spades? It is clear that with a heart opening lead, they could not (or a little more broadly, a heart lead before a club lead). But even if the spade bidders get a club lead, allowing the declarer to sluff a heart loser on the K of clubs, there is still the matter of the fourth round of diamonds. The spade declarer, always losing a club, a diamond finesse and a trump has to handle the 3rd & 4th rounds of diamonds with not too many trump in dummy.
The record shows that 7 declarers went down in 4 spades, 8 made, which of course tells us nothing about what these fellows would've done without the sac, but does rather suggest that it's not all that inviting a strategy. Further, of the 7 who went down, 3 went down two! -- suggesting that some lost both a heart and a second diamond. Myself, I'd prefer to be on the defense here. As defenders, we would have the possibility of finding the most effective opening lead and of declarer kicking away his chance through carelessness.
And secondly, with that favorable vulnerability putting the stakes at 8 winners in a 5 club contract, even with that favorable vulnerability can South pull home the needed number of winners, which would here be 8 for down 3? And the answer was No.
Opening lead was a gift (well, with a right guess which declarer was up to). Declarer ducked in dummy, East going up with the A, switching to a low diamond, declarer winning with the J. Now came a lead to the K of spades, back on a club hook, going to West's K. West now hit his partner with the A of diamonds, East returning the diamond 10, up K, West ruffing. That ruff didn't hurt declarer, since West always has two trump tricks coming with K 10 9 6, but . . . . West now hit his partner with the A of hearts, and back came another diamond, and this one does hurt, since it's West's third trump winner, which going with three aces in East's hand, means 6 winners for the defense and a miserable minus 800 score for the declaring side.
I confess that I at first thought declarer had misplayed by a trick, but on going over it, I saw that with that diamond distribution and East's many entries, and West's substantial holding in trump, there was nothing declarer could do. Anyway, those twin dangers -- that those other guys can't make their contract (or at least will have a tough time) and that even if they could, a sac can simply be too costly -- were both exemplified here.
You must bear in mind that on a sac, you're bidding in both directions -- well, not bidding the defensive cards, of course, but evaluating their potential from how the bidding transpires (and a look at your own cards). And that's a tough thing to do. In addition, you're making a unilaterial decision for your side that they can make so much, and so can you in another suit. And if you're wrong on either count, you've got a dissatisfied partner.
North looks to me like the goat here. He has a very minimum club support and had shown it with a 3 club bid. His high honors are in the other suits, including a big one in their suit. His partner had passed 4 spades, and though to be sure, a 5 club bid is in effect "two clubs" (I'm bidding to sac, pd), we see that even that is "one too many". You hafta bear in mind that when you make risky overcalls at low levels, you have the protection of the scoring system. Even if the opponents can double and set you, it may not be to their advantage vis-à-a-vis what they could've done with their own suit. I can't remember the last time I was hurt at the one or two level. But when you sac and know that you must make so-and-so many tricks (here 8), there's no cushion in relation to what they could make. You either get your 8 winners or you've bitten off a poor score.
Handle your sac bids with care.
Above I pointed out that North's honors were in other suits, including a big one in their suit. So it's not a club hand where a powerful club suit is going to waste if you passively let those guys have a vulnerable game. It's a very mediocre, average club holding, a 5-3. Missing the K 10 9 and a couple more. A bad break, yes, but not a rare one. I might put it this way: when you've got a powerful fit with some good high-card tickets so that you're not sure whether you're bidding to make or to sac, then you should be pretty safe on a sac bid.