Outsmarted


K Q 4 3
A 8 7
K J 5
J 10 5
J 10 9 8 6 5 2
10 9 6 5 3 J
A 8 10 7 6 4 2
K 9 7 6 3 8
A 7
K Q 4 2 Contract: 3 no trump
Q 9 3
A Q 4 2 Opening lead: 6 of clubs

West let declarer get two club tricks without spending the ace here. On the opening lead, fine. But a second time? West has to presume that his partner didn't duck the opening lead with a guarded ace when, if holding that card, he could have given the defense a powerful start on developing the clubs while West held the A of diamonds for a possible entry. Declarer can develop a third club winner here, of course. But West doesn't want to let it happen without getting his king as a winner in there second or third round. Sometimes when you fiddle around, "knowing" you'll get it eventually, you find yourself squeezed out of that big card. Is that what happened here? Well, not exactly.
Opening lead a low club, taken by the 10 in dummy. Declarer came to the Q of diamonds, then went low to the J of clubs(!), knocked out the A of diamonds with the J. Now West can't pursue clubs. Declarer took the 10 of hearts shift, East playing the J, the K winning. I might take an aside here to point out that West opened the possibility of heart finesse and 4 heart winners for declarer with that lead. Paradoxically, many a West, after a low opening heart lead, when in with the A of diamonds, led another low heart, allowing declarer to win with the 8 when the 10 (and 9) could have wiped out the 8 and 7 in dummy (West has the 6). You go figure.
But declarer didn't fancy that finesse, though 41 matchpoints were at stake! Well, not that he could have known that, exactly. He couldn't have been certain of the location of the 9 of hearts. The hand would then have looked like this:

K Q 4 3
A 8
K
5
J 10 9 8 6 5
9 6 5 3 ------
------ 10 7 6
K 9 7 ------
A 7
Q 4 2
9
A Q

Indeed, his very next play was a low heart to the ace, and then back to the Q of hearts. The hand would have looked like this:

K Q 4 3
------
K
5
J 10 9 8 6
9 6 ------
------ 10 7
K 9 7 ------
A 7
4
9
A Q

He now cashed his three spade winners, sluffing a diamond from the closed hand as West sluffed a heart and a club. The hand would have looked like this:

4
------
K
5
------ 10
9 ------
------ 10 7
K 9 ------
------
4
------
A Q

Declarer, who'd sluffed a diamond on the third spade, now cashed the K of diamonds, sluffing the Q of clubs, then came to the closed hand, cashing the the A of clubs and 4 of hearts. Making 6 and near 82 matchpoints. The four of hearts? At trick 12, West needed only throw his K of clubs, and he would have picked up as many tricks as if he'd cashed his K of clubs earlier.
This is the converse of keeping the same number as dummy holds, which is to hold the same number as the closed hand holds when discarding after that hand. Of course one can't see the closed hand's holding, so this doesn't come up as often, though I often see hands where that defense would have worked and perhaps should offer a few for the reader's consideration. But here I offer it because West hardly needed to see the closed hand. He only needed to watch declarer's club discards. Nor should it have been hard, since clubs had been played twice, East showing out on the second round, of course. West should have known after the second round of clubs that declarer has the A Q of clubs left. Meaning that when he sluffs the Q, he has only the A left, and if he's counted nothing else, he has to know that the K of clubs isn't going to be a winner. Whatever declarer's other card (after trick 11), it can't be a club. Plus 5 brought 41 matchpoints -- to other declarers.