Expensive


A K Q J 10
10
10 7 5
A 8 7 2
8 7 4 3 2 6 5
Q 9 5 K 7 3 2
Q 9 8 4 3 2
4 Q J 9 5 3
9
A J 10 8 4
A K J 6 Contract: 6 no
K 10 6 Opening lead: 4 of diamonds

How on earth does declarer make 6 no here, I wondered. I could count up to only 10 tricks, with an 11th to be developed on a losing diamond hook. But a 12th? Then I took a look at the opening lead, and it began to seem perhaps a bit more likely. Declarer always had a third diamond trick coming to him, yes, but sometimes it makes a difference whether one has had to lose the lead to get that third trick or not. For obviously, if you now can find another place where you can develop a trick by giving one up, well, hey man, that's your twelfth, no?
Declarer won that opening lead with the 6, actually, and ran five spades, sluffing four hearts, while East sluffed a club, then a diamond and then a club. And declarer was evidently watching. The defense started with 6 clubs and now have only four. Unless they're all four in the same hand -- well, you know the rest. If the clubs are no worse than 3-1, declarer can afford to lose a club, regain the lead, and run three clubs for his contract. Which is what happened. At trick 7, declarer led a club from dummy, East went in with the J, declarer ducked, took the heart shift and of course now cashed the K of clubs, went to the ace, cashed the 8 of clubs and wound up with the A K of diamonds.
A fine score for the declaring side, a miserable one for the defense. Could the contract have been set? It certainly looks so to me. The first club sluff is fine. After all, East has one more than dummy. The 2 of diamonds, of course. But why East would think he has to hang onto four hearts when declarer could finesse only once is puzzling. At worst, declarer has A Q J, so three hearts for the nonce is all East could possibly need. Further, if he'd put off discarding that 2nd club just one more round, the hand might have been and would have been clarified. For declarer had sluffed the 4, 8 and 10 of hearts already and was to sluff the Jack after East's play, and almost surely would have done so had he seen a low heart rather than low club come from East. For the A J tight doesn't promise much for development. And that's the last spade! Just one ittle bitty heart to keep as many clubs as dummy.
Wait a minute! Declarer has K 10 6 sitting over the Q J 9 of clubs! Can't he develop a third club winner by leading low to the K 10 6? And the answer is no. That is, not here. He could do so with plenty of entries, sure. But look at the logistics here. Declarer leads a low club, East splits his honors and declarer ducks. Hm-m-m-m. Now he could finesse the 10 on a later lead, cash the K and then get back to the A for a third club winner except for the obvious: he needs two more entries for that. The same for capturing East's honor, then leading toward the 10 to establish it, then regaining the lead, cashing the 10, then getting back to dummy to cash the ace.
No, it looks to me as though declarer can't exploit the location of that 10 and that when East wins a club trick, a heart lead will lock declarer into the loss of another trick to the Q of diamonds.