What Does a Winner Look Like?

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A K 10 9
K Q 4 2
K Q 9 8 3
9 7 6 3 2 A K Q 10 5 4
5 8 6 3
10 8 7 3 J
10 4 2 A J 7
J 8
Q J 7 4 2
A 9 6 5 Contract: 6 hearts
6 5 Opening lead: 7 of spades

What's the difference, when all trump are out, between leading a trump, sluffing, say a club, and ruffing a club. The difference, of course, is that in ruffing a club, any defender with clubs must play a club, but in leading a trump, the defense (out of trump) can play anything card it wants. On this hand, where declarer has a diamond and trump opposite diamond K and little (the ace is out), it's a question of which hand he winds up in. If he goes to the king of diamonds and ruffs a diamond, he's in clover. If he leads a trump, sluffing a diamond, and then goes to the K of diamonds, he's in the wrong hand for a squeeze. As for whether the defense will have freedom to play any card or must follow in a side suit, sometimes it's of no importance, and sometimes it will carry a great deal of importance, as here.
It's a bit of a tricky hand, but then, not what I'd call greatly complicated. One declarer went down for the most elementary of reasons. Ruff a spade with the 9, diamond to the ace, ruff a spade with the ten, cash the A K of trump, and play the diamond king? ? ? ? Too bad. Declarer first shouldn't have been so parsimonious about preserving his heart honors. No, don't be wasteful and profligate. But since all dummy's trump are strong enough to draw trump, the only difference in the hearts being that some can be overtaken with the queen and others cannot, why not ruff the second time with the ace? Now you cash the king of hearts, note that trump cannot be worse than 3-1, and so you can overtake the 10 of hearts with the queen and draw the last trump on the 3-1 split.
What's worse, however, is that the king of diamonds can't be right. Had he played the king earlier and then tried to enter the closed hand with the ace, we'd have to say he should have taken the possibility of a 4-1 split into consideration. But he can't possibly enter the closed hand with a diamond after playing the ace with a trump out. To top it off, he's gotta hit clubs sooner or later, anyway.
Well, enough of that declarer. This one didn't fall into that trap. He led the A of trump at trick two (and so knows the distribution can't be 4-0), came to the closed hand with a diamond, ruffed the second spade in dummy -- low -- cashed the king of hearts and led the king of clubs (luckily finding the ace of clubs with the short diamonds). Now East led a third round of spades, forcing declarer in the long heart hand. A club was sluffed from dummy. Now he drew the last round of trump, sluffing a club. Sluffing a club!
Well, that was his last chance. He must sluff a diamond. He doesnt' need the fourth diamond there when the closed hand has four and might need a long club. That's not hindsight. A declarer should certainly keep his mind open to a bad break in diamonds -- as well as a good break in clubs! Had he gone to the queen of clubs and ruffed a club, an elementary procedure, the opponents would have had to follow suit and he would have survived with one last club winner in dummy with plenty of access to it, on which he'll sluff a diamond. But at that point, he has only two clubs left in dummy and cannot generate another winner. So the good scores go to those who didn't assume diamonds would have to be 3-2.
There's just no reason not to ruff out that club suit. At trick 2, declarer might have led the king of clubs. A spade lead can't hurt him. He'd welcome it, coming before dummy is depleted of trump and therefore not shorting the long heart holding. Indeed, declarer might think of this as a dummy reversal, even though a second spade lead cuts dummy down to fewer trump than East holds. Declarer can obviate any problem by overtaking the second round of hearts, drawing the third round. Now you've got plenty of entries to dummy and if either diamonds or clubs split evenly, you'll be in clover. After you knock out the A of clubs, cash a club and ruff a club, you'll have a long club on which to park a diamond.
In any event, this declarer clearly placed too much trust in a 3-2 diamond split, and deservedly got his comeuppance. He must consider that potential in a 5-2 club suit headed by the K Q and with only one sure loser, which you're bound to lose sometime anyway.