Two Chances are Twice as Good as One

	K 3
	A K Q 6 2
	------
	A 10 9 8 7 5
A 10 7 5 4 2		Q J 9 8
7		10 9 5
A 7 5		Q J 6 3
6 4 2		K 3
	6
	J 8 4 3		Vulnerability: None
	K 10 9 8 4 2		Opening lead: that is the question
	Q J		Contract: 6 hearts

Could you make 6 hearts on this hand on any lead, from either hand? The answer has to be, Yes, you can make 6 hearts against any lead but a club when played by the South hand. When played by North (which was often the case), 6 hearts is cold -- provided you test your chances sequentially, which is to say, first a lead toward the K of spades, and then the club hook if that doesn't produce a winner. But it does produce a winner, on which one can sluff a club, avoiding the club hook.

Curiously of the 11 people who failed to pick up 12 tricks, 10 in a game bid and one in slam, not one got a club opening lead! Everyone, indeed, got a spade lead, except the declarer in slam, who got the A of diamonds. Every single one had the opportunity, with communication by way of the J of hearts, to lead toward that king of spades. What's also curious is that the woman who went down in five hearts did everything right for the first four tricks. Playing from the North hand above, she got the favorable lead of a spade to the ace on her right, a club switch, which she went up on, then the K of spades, sluffing a club, ruff a club and the K falls. How can anyone miss 12 tricks at that point? How indeed can anyone miss eleven tricks at that point? Well, here's how. You don't notice that the 10 9 8 and 7 of clubs are the high ones out. Indeed, if she'd just drawn 3 rounds of trump, she couldn't have missed 12 tricks if she'd tried. But here's what happened:

Trick five, ruff a diamond(!) Ruff the 7 of clubs (!!! it was high, or tied for high, anyway), LHO's 9 of trump forcing out the J. Play the 9 of diamonds, sluffing the 8 of clubs!, a winner, losing to the Q, take the heart return, play clubs still again, the 9, LHO ruffing with the 10, ruff a spade return in dummy, sluffing the 10 of clubs now, and that's how. It's a puzzler.

Here's the slam bidder: Ace of diamonds opening lead, ruffed in dummy, of course, Three rounds of hearts, ending in with the J of hearts. Diamond K sluffing the 3 of spades! ! ! ! The diamond K was high after that lead, of course, but the 3 of spades is substantially a winner! Or a winner-enabler, if you will. It is so by virtue of being the card that allows the K of spades to be a winner. Even without the K, the fact that the 3 of spades can be ruffed in the short trump hand would make it substantially a winner. And sluffing a winner on a winner isn't exactly recommended when you're in a very fine contract, or at least a makable contract given a favorable opening lead. Now came a losing club finesse, followed immediately by a spade to the A.

I went to the many who weren't in slam but still made only 11 tricks, and at first, they showed a remarkable variety. All got a spade lead to the ace on their right. The first that I examined got a club back and took a losing finesse. The second went up on the ace with a club shift and would seem to have been on the right track. Now came three rounds of trump ending with the J -- and now led a club! He just gave up. It wasn't wise to end with the J, but he could still have made it because of luck in the club suit. Ruff a diamond, pitch a club on the K of spades, and now declarer can either take a ruffing finesse against the K of clubs or hope for it to fall short on the second round, and it's obvious his hopes would have been gratified. The third got a spade return at trick two -- and sluffed a diamond! Now of course they can't avoid the club hook.

The lesson, of course, is that you want to avoid finesses when you can, which here declarer can, except on a club lead played as above (which no one got!). But wait a minute! Is this mere hindsight? We do get a lucky break in the K of clubs falling short. [A year later. Yes, with any lead other than a spade, establishing the K, it looks to me as though this works only with the K falling on the second round. Well, even that I have to qualify. With the trump suit remaining as is, it would seem that you could ruff out the K if East held the twice-guarded king, but not if West, did, since East, with a doubleton, could then ruff higher than the closed hand could, third round. Oh me. I didn't think it through a year ago. Now I'm not sure where the better odds lie with a lead other than a spade. True, true, true. But in real life, just about everyone got a spade lead, as mentioned above, and then the sluff of a club to avoid the finesse looks attractive indeed.]