Kicking Away Two Possibilities

	A 2
	K Q J 8 6
	A Q J 9 4
	J
8 6 5		K 10
7 3 2		9 5 4
7 6 5 2		K 10
7 3 2		K 10 9 6 5 4
	Q J 9 7 4 3
	A 10
	8 3		Contract: 6 NT
	A Q 8		Opening lead: 7 of clubs

This declarer kicked away his potential in quick fashion on tricks 2 and 3. Pow-pow! At trick 2, he went after the wrong suit, at least in terms of likelihood, though in truth the suit he went after offered a chance on a lucky distribution. And then at trick 3 he wiped out that chance! Spades beckon more strongly than diamonds. You've got 8 spades and the tickets for 5 winners on any 3-2 split (the likeliest for 5 cards), while you've only 7 diamonds and no assurance of 4 winners (all you need after that opening lead) on any 4-2 split (the likeliest for six cards).

Here's what declarer did: on opening lead, East covered the J in dummy, declarer winning with the ace. Now he took a losing diamond hook, and on the club return, sluffed a diamond in dummy. Sluffed a diamond in dummy! Now he can't pick up more than three diamond winners. And if that wasn't enough, after saving that low spade rather than the 5th diamond, he now rendered it useless at trick four by leading the queen of spades and when it wasn't covered, going up with the ace! Oh, to be sure, we can see that the spade hook is off, and that he'd already queered his chance to make his contract. Still, the spade hook was all was all declarer had left, aside from dropping a stiff king of spades, which happens a lot more in print than in real life when you need it for your contract. And that was all by trick 4.

A simple count should have steered declarer right. Five spade winners will do it. Lead to the ace and come back to the queen. Any 3-2 split will do the trick, as mentioned above. A 4-1 split with a stiff king or stiff 10 in either hand will do it. I would go to the ace and come back to the Q J because it looks as though you could have entry problems if you finesse and West holds K x x and of course, ducks two leads. You take two tricks, come to the closed hand with the ace of hearts, knock out the K of spades, and West leads a diamond now. Hm-m-mm. You've only one more entry to the closed hand, the 10 of hearts, which unfortunately would now be your only entry to dummy if you were in the closed hand! Which is to say that you'll either cash out your hearts or your spades but not both.

Count, count, count. Noting 5 probable spade winners would have done declarer well, as mentioned. But once that was eschewed, a count of four diamond winners (the 10 falling short) would have sufficed, and if not planning on four diamond winners, three diamond winners only would mean you need to take the spade hook, and you don't wanna saddle yourself with two finesses if you can help it, do you? To be sure, declarer has to make his decision before he knows the 10 of diamonds will fall. Which is why he'd have done well to have thrown himself on the mercy of an even spade break in the first place. Why do declarers, who show a good grasp of their potential in the bidding so as to reach this fine contract, kick away hands that require little more than third-grade arithmetic? Is it because they don't recognize winners and potential winners easily? Or because they're lazy?

My guess? It's a little bit of both.