Here is the first hand in the past week that caught my attention:
|
 A Q J 7 5 4 |
|
|
 6 4 |
|
|
 K J 10 6 2 |
|
|
 ------ |
|
| 8 2 |
|
10 6 |
| 10 3 2 |
|
A 9 5 |
| 9 7 |
|
A Q 5 |
| A Q 10 9 8 2 |
|
J 7 6 5 4 |
|
K 9 3 |
|
K Q J 8 7 |
|
8 4 3 |
|
K 3 |
| East |
South |
West |
North |
| Pass |
1 |
Pass |
1 |
| Pass |
1 NT |
Pass |
3 |
| Pass | 3 |
Pass |
4 |
| All | pass |
Obviously the pair would have been in a much safer and saner contract in 4 spades, not only because of the 9-card fit, but because a lead through the king-jack of diamonds is inhibited. You can't sluff enough diamonds (on the hearts) in a spade contract to avoid losing those two diamonds eventually, but the ruffing potential makes that lead devastating in a heart contract. Four hearts could have been set three tricks, it seems to me (starting with the doubleton diamond, ruff a third round, heart lead, East ducking first round, taking the second to lead a club through the king). But a funny thing happened: West's opening lead was the ace of clubs! And it's doubtful that this declarer will see a more favorable opening lead on a misbid hand the rest of her life!
Further, and a tad ironically, it's not only a favorable lead, but declarer could have made five on the hand, besting confreres in spades! Why so? Well, why not so? West never gets the lead again and declarer gets even splits in both major suits. After two rounds of trump, declarer knocks out the A of hearts and now can sluff three diamonds on the hearts and one on the K of clubs! Losing to two aces. The spade bidders could never make more than 10 tricks (good defense), losing two diamonds and a heart.
So an unbeatable top loomed on the horizon -- until declarer chose to lead a spade at trick two! I recall a certain partner who'd always put off drawing trump. This was at the table, where one can't see declarer's hand, but it was unsettling nevertheless, and I'd often say to myself, "If you don't have enough pride in your trump suit to draw trump, then please don't bid it!" Here (on OKBridge) I could see declarer's cards and could see that the hand would be a cakewalk on certain distributions, the actual distribution being one of them. But it wasn't to be. And if the defense could have set declarer three tricks on best defense, she altruistically made sure they got two setting tricks, anyway. She did this by not getting around to the drawing of trump. At trick two, she was looking at a singleton trump in dummy opposite a not-necessarily-self-supporting heart suit and so couldn't bring herself to bang down hearts. But what's the alternative? What can one do to enhance the potential if you don't draw trump?
You will note that this has nothing to do with hindsight and ferreting out some esoteric play that would dazzle the experts. This was a plain, ordinary, get-out-the-trump hand. Suppose there was a bad heart split? Well, of course there are holdings that would have rendered game impossible. But I'll be dogged if I can see any holding where you benefit by delaying the drawing of trump. If you get a bad split, you go down. If you get a bit of luck, you make. Those are the ones you should make.