Why the Disparity?


J 8 6 3 2
9 2
K 5
K 9 3 2
A 9 Q 10 5
A 7 6 4 8 3
J 9 3 Q 7 6 4 2
10 8 5 4 Q J 7
K 7 4
K Q J 10 5
A 10 8 Contract: 3 no
A 6 Opening lead: 4 of clubs

I printed out the play of four declarers here. All got substantially the same opening lead (one got the 8 of clubs instead of the 4). Yet two were down two, one made the contract and one made an overtrick. Why the difference? Exceptionally brilliant play? Or if goofs were made, were they made by the defeated declarers or the defenders against the successful declarers?
Declarer wins the opening lead with the ace of clubs, East having split his honors, goes to the 9 of hearts, which holds and leads a spade to his king and ace. That I would call extremely unwise, and I assure you it's not just hindsight. On these holdings without sequence, you want to keep away from initiating them if you can (which isn't always possible, of course). Often -- as here -- whoever initiates the suit loses a trick. So let them initiate it! Further, you don't have the strength to develop two suits, so you'd better get around to developing your best. It's true that you have 7 hearts and 8 spades, but the hearts are solid and the spades are far from that, and further, the long holding is 5 cards in each suit. You've got to knock out the A of hearts and make the suit available for running before you go looking elsewhere.
Now the club 8 brought a cover with the 9 (!) taken by the queen, and East continued the clubs to his partner's 10 7, knocking out the king, for a second club winner in waiting when West gets in with the ace of hearts. Need I say more? Two clubs, three spades and the ace of hearts. Note what happens if you go up on the second club lead. If East plays low, he blocks the suit, and if he jettisons his second honor, declarer has a guarded 9 sitting after the 10. Or if declarer goes low, East wins with his second honor and declarer has the K 9 tenace over the 10. Either way, the defense is held to one club trick. By abandoning his hearts, which would have established eight tricks as a minimum, for a spotty spade suit, which not only allowed the defense three tricks in spades, but an extra trick in clubs before hearts have been set up, declarer invited a two-trick set (a heart, two clubs and 3 spades!).
The next declarer played the hand somewhat better, I would say (though he also went down 2!). Club to the third hand J, taken by declarer, heart to the 9 and back to the 10, won by the ace, club to the queen, and now with the K 9 of clubs in dummy, East can't continue the suit! (This is where the defender started with the 8 of clubs. East couldn't know that the 8 would force the ace if he ducked.) So East shifted to a diamond, which rode to the king and now this declarer led a spade.
Well, if it works, it works. But how are you going to cash the king of clubs even if the king of spades holds? I think this declarer would have done far better to take the diamond switch in the closed hand (to ensure access to the king of clubs) and run his hearts. West has to make only one discard on the fifth heart, but it's a key one. If he sluffs a diamond, not deeming his partner's shift as promising much of anything, you can make the contract. After the fifth heart, you go to dummy with the king of diamonds, cash the king of clubs and let West have his 10 of clubs. Now West is thrown in with the A 9 of spades and allows you the last trick. But if West is savvy enough -- or lucky enough -- to blank his ace of spades, then you'll go down. But at least you'll have eight tricks and not go down 2.
It looks to me as though the contract can be set with best defense. Anyway, how did the other two declarers make their contract, one with an overtrick? Okay, club to the jack, taken, heart king, then low heart to the 9, which holds, low spade to the king which holds. Spade to the king which holds! What's going on? West has now ducked two heart leads and a spade. The heart ducks didn't hurt the defense, but the spade duck handed the contract over. Hey, man, how many times are you going to duck? A king isn't good enough a card for an ace to capture? Declarer, of course, reverted to hearts, and was enabled to make 4 heart winners . . well, you can count to 9.
The next declarer who made an overtrick, got an opposite sort of gift in spades. Club to the jack and ace, heart to the 9, back to the 10 and ace, and West now laid down the ace of spades and continued the suit! One defender doesn't think the king is a good enough card to take with his ace while the next picks up the deuce and 4!
I said above that you just don't have the strength to develop two suits here, but I meant without help from the opponents. The continuation of spades, where declarer has 8 pieces, allowed declarer to run hearts, sluffing clubs, then knock out the defense's last spade, and run that suit at the end. The defense got two aces and the third round of spades.
That tenace-ridden spade suit figured in three of the four lines of play above, and might have been a factor in the fourth if declarer had taken the line suggested above. You just don't want to initiate such unsequenced holdings if you can help it.