Life-Peace.org. Nov 2005

Shane Quinn

On 29 September 2005 the Republic of Somaliland, which proclaimed its independence in 1991, held its first official parliamentary elections. In addition to this, the current elections were the first in the whole area of Somalia since 1969. Altogether some 70 international observers from a dozen different countries participated in the monitoring of the elections. A competitive and pluralistic party system gave the 800 000 voters a genuine choice.

Since 1991 it has been a long road of redemption for the breakaway republic of Somaliland, and these momentous parliamentary elections are a veritable sign of what can be achieved in the aftermath of war. The elections passed off without any recourse to violence, and despite the South African observer team noticing "numerous administrative and logistical shortcomings", the whole process was relatively free and fair. Not even the threat of a derailment as a result of the arrest of suspected Islamic terrorists could dampen the optimistic mood of the country.

Nonetheless, it remains to be seen whether the peace - won at such a cost twelve years ago - can be sustained. Ominously, in the run-up to the elections, the issue of clannism became a modus operandi for all three parties, to the extent that on polling day, one of the international observers suggested that 80 percent of the seats in the new parliament may be already "locked in" along clan lines.

In the endgame, the two main issues on the table were peace and security on the one hand and on the other, that of recognition. The unpredictability of peace in the sub-region was on the lips of a majority of voters and remains - despite the relative stability - a recurrent theme in the lives of Somalilanders. Memories of the civil war after the disintegration of Somalia are still rather lucid, and the proximity of the violent south as well as the protracted nature of the conflict with Puntland are part and parcel of daily life here. Even amongst Somaliland civil society organisations, there is a realisation that they have gone beyond a need for conflict transformation, but that a sustainable peace is still not a given. This is somewhat presumptuous considering the insular move toward clannism during the elections and in relation to the ongoing conflict in Puntland.

Not all of the electorate perceived recognition to be the driving force behind the elections, and there were some dissenters. Our driver Mohammed, a former fighter in the Somali National Movement, dismissed the election issue of recognition as illusory and maintained that the need to improve the living standards of the local population was paramount. Unemployment is rife in the small republic, and the cost of living is becoming ever more burdensome for the average Somalilander. He was quick to point out that when he was fighting against the Siad Barre government, he was never told that secession was a driving factor.

There is some economic sense in this argument, as without the extensive trade links with the south that burgeoned in bygone days and was the life-blood of the northwest, Somaliland would never manage to develop in line with other countries in the region. As it stands, the border areas with Puntland are insecure, and the south is too unstable. To the southwest lies Ethiopia where trade restrictions are heavy, and the road to Addis Ababa is a long and arduous one.

However, it is not all doom and gloom when considering the tentative steps taken by the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in asserting that peace in the south was a priority before any negotiations can take place with Somaliland - if they do at all. This is a tall order for the TFG, and Somaliland is almost certain that any possibility of recognition by the international community will surely depend on what happens down south. Much can be read into the feelgood factor brought about by these elections on the current impasse in the south. Civil society organisations have been quick to latch on to this and are imploring the two opposing TFG factions to at least sit down and talk. Recently, one of LPI's former partners, Forum for Peace & Governance arranged an exposure visit, whereby fifty activists and academics from the south were allowed to visit Hargeisa during election time and were bowled over not only by the crowds of people at the polling stations, but also the sight of a busy bustling town where freedom of movement was taken for granted.

Effect on the south

Now that Somaliland has held verifiable elections, the knock-on effect for the south cannot be underestimated. In Somalia in general, networks are a fact of life, and the success of the democratic process up north will not have gone unnoticed. The most surprising result is maybe the reaction among the majority interviewed on Horn Afrik.1 Those asked for their opinion on the elections up north responded positively and further implied that both TFG factions should sit up and take note instead of staring each other down along the Mogadishu to Jowhar2 road.

The apparent progress in the political situation in Mogadishu and Jowhar allied to the positive response from those quarters vis-…-vis the elections in Somaliland begs the question: will economic reality override all other contentious issues between the sides and bring them closer together? Although anathema to many Somalilanders, the economic argument has nonetheless proven to mollify other conflicts and is increasingly relevant in a region where peace - although uneasy in some cases - is in the ascendancy.

In that respect, and in order to assuage the political aims of both Somaliland and the south, it is both surprising and disappointing that the international community has not come up with some form of political incentive to show their recognition of the progress made by Somaliland and the continuing efforts by the TFG to gain a foothold in Somalia. In the case of the former, an interim status arrangement of ten years could be offered, whereby the small enclave could have an interim state arrangement but its long-term status would be dependent on eventual negotiations with the TFG, once the latter has managed to establish itself adequately. If there are no signs of stability coming from the south, then full independence could follow for Somaliland as recognition for its hard-earned progress.

In relation to the crisis surrounding the TFG, there is an immediate need to come up with a mediation strategy between the two factions. Although LPI stringently adheres to the need for Somali problems to be resolved by the Somalis themselves, there is an underlying need for what can be termed as forceful facilitation. The fact that most efforts at mediation have failed thus far should not deter those international actors involved in the process.

In that respect, the recent initiative put forward by President Geedi and eagerly supported by the UN Special Envoy for Somalia, Fran‡ois Fall, is both welcome and timely. However, if this particular initiative fails, then the immediate future for Somalia looks bleak, and the official break-up of the country could gather pace as a result. The government of Somaliland would also be quick to indicate that the consistent drawbacks of achieving stability in the south can only serve to strengthen its claims for recognition. The international actors involved in Somalia must be prepared to back the peace process, laboriously built up over two and half years, and not let it crumble for a want of sustained and purposeful action. That is the least the Somali people deserve from the long unabated circle of violence that has engulfed them over the course of fifteen years.

NOTES

1 Mogadishu-based radio station with wide coverage in the Banadir and Hiraan regions

2 A town 90 km north of Mogadishu, at present the temporary seat of the transitional government.