 |
The Long Term Outlook
 |
Since
January 2001, computer technology and computer communications
company stock prices have plummeted, and there have been massive layoffs
in the high-tech industry. A major indicator that the market was about to do a
correction was the debacle of the shopping season of Christmas of
1999. The hype produced massive orders which industry and business
could not fulfill in a timely manner.
 |
The
trend is to lay off the least educated person first. |
 |
The
4-year degree is the competitive requirement in the computer
field today. This is very different than conditions
through the year 2000. |
|
 |
In case you miss the implications:
 |
The days of being able to say "computer" (or perhaps
even spell it) and get a job are over. You now have to work
hard and know something. |
 |
If you are willing to work hard to learn technology, and remain
current, you can have a good job. |
 |
The Information Technology industry is not dead.
We are
rebalancing priorities as we learn about what the market real needs
and resources are. |
|
 |
World wide competition in the market place. |
 |
World wide competition in the job market.
 |
The USA does not have a monopoly on brilliant people.
 |
Foreign students come to the USA to learn from world class
foreign professors.
 |
Yes, USA has world class professors too, but our science,
math, and engineering departments at our research
universities are heavily represented by foreign professors. |
 |
By collecting foreign students from all over the world,
USA students get the benefit of international cultures
without the expense of foreign travel. |
|
 |
USA benefits. It costs us less to send USA students to
listen to foreign professors collected together in one
location. We should encourage this. |
|
 |
The Internet makes possible intercontinental telecommuting. |
 |
Many well qualified people are willing to work for a fraction of
the labor cost of a person in the USA. |
 |
The French will make anything for anyone, for a price. USA
isolationism is not the answer. |
|
 |
Private sector, public sector |
 |
Reliability of communication networks from attack is unsolved. |
 |
Work ethic decline in USA
 |
Recent high school graduates seem to have a better work ethic than
graduates of the previous 30 years. The previous generations
need to reconsider. |
|
 |
Recycling of old equipment: opportunities and burdens
 |
Toxic dump problem. Lead and heavy metals used in
manufacturing process and components. Pompeii had the problem
of lead poisoning. Will future systems need to be sold with
the cost of reclamation built into the new equipment price? |
 |
Opportunity to reengineer software, peripherals, etc to breath new
life into old equipment.
 |
What about writing a new operating system that can perform in
a manner similar to Windows 95 or later, but work on a
286? Would it be economical to add new memory and a new
hard drive with such a new operating system? Such a system
would have to be sold at a price significantly less than new PCs
to be competitive. A successful approach would keep old
equipment out of the dump longer. |
|
 |
Institutionalize recycle retail market; today it is predominantly a bilateral system.
 |
eBay has filled the gap of barter, trade, and sales between
individuals. |
 |
Still need a system that can massively accept used equipment,
test it, refurbish or dispose of equipment, bundle software,
market, and distribute... at a profit. Can it be done for
profit? |
|
|
|
 |
What is Happening in the Computer Industry Today?
 |
Balance cost of goods and services with value added and marketability. |
 |
Market saturation of retail consumer market for small business and
PC-based home computing. New entries into the market will depend
on birth rate.
 |
Low end market
 |
Not saturated, when measured by percentage of households with
connections to the Internet. |
 |
31 AUG 2001: Is saturated, if measured by the decision of
manufacturers to discontinue production and sales of Network
PCs. Even subsidized sales and slashed prices have not
generated the sales expected. Apparently, there is little
perceived benefit. |
|
 |
High
end market
 |
I
am not sure. Supercomputer sales were strong
world-wide in 2000 AD. Cost is a problem.
Experiments are being done with distributed computing
using PCs to gain equivalent computing power at a lower
cost. Naval Research Lab is one of the
experimenters that demonstrated significant capability
at a reduced cost. |
|
|
 |
Last Mile problem
 |
The last communications link to most phone customers is still an
analog system. The remainder of the phone system is digital
already. |
 |
Voice-over-the-Internet is directly competing with traditional
long distance telephone service. This will change the
relationship between last-mile providers. Will the phone
system and cable system merge to become a communication
system? Will the phone system upgrade its technology and be
competitive? |
 |
Video-over-the-Internet
standards are being reexamined. Encoding to reduce
bandwidth and encryption to increase privacy are points of
interest. Video transmission protocols are being looked
at. HDTV is coming soon and will increase pressure for
high bandwidth. Video conferences have long been advertised
as the solution to transportation costs and delays. This
has been in use by major corporations since the very early
1980s. |
|
 |
Internet Service Provider market not balanced.
 |
25% of Americans live in rural areas with slow or nonexistent
Internet access. |
 |
Will Internet access be treated publicly as a utility for which we
decide our nation should have universal access?
 |
We have done this several times before.
 |
Rural electrification. Cities subsidized rural
areas. |
 |
Telephone universal access. Cities subsidized rural
areas. |
 |
Gasoline distribution. Profit motive and cost
expansion, pay-as-you-go. |
|
 |
We have not established universal service for some
utilities. Each locality solved its own problem.
 |
Water |
 |
Sewage |
|
|
 |
The
business model of services paid by low-end consumer
advertising is not working.
 |
Spinway
is gone. |
 |
NetZero
terminated free access numbers to Fayetteville, NC
effective 01 OCT 2001. |
 |
Yahoo,
CompuServe, and AOL are retrenching. |
|
|
 |
Southern hemisphere still untapped market: South America and Africa.
 |
Continent-wide landline service is not a reality. |
 |
Domestic tranquility is required for reliable land line service. |
 |
Wireless service is popular in China. |
 |
Wireless service between communities, and landline service within
communities, may provide an economical mix. |
|
 |
Satellites are expensive, land lines require domestic tranquility.
 |
Only a few nations have the capitalization to build and deploy
launch vehicles. This represents opportunity for nations who
can concentrate resources. |
|
|
 |
Affect on Computer Industry Jobs in the United States
 |
Capitalization of innovation is important. |
 |
Internet has made the programming industry international. |
 |
Computer Tech jobs provided a fast track to high salaries during the
public growth phase of the Internet. |
 |
Jobs are driven by market pressures, and go to the best qualified
person willing to work for the offered wage. |
|
 |
Recent News. Electronic commerce and its supporting hardware and
software industries has taken hard hits globally over the last 3
years. Degree-holding computer professionals appear to be still in
demand.
 |
Apple cuts sales jobs, Ian Fried,
Staff Writer, CNET News.com,
August 30, 2001, 10:15 a.m. PT http://news.cnet.com/news/0-1006-200-7014426.html?tag=mn_hd |
 |
January hits new high for hi-tech layoffs, John Geralds in Silicon Valley [09-02-2001]
http://www.vnunet.com/News/1117501.
The ecommerce sector saw a record number of layoffs in January 2001, with
44,851 jobs lost. |
 |
NEC Corp. said it would cut 4,000 jobs due to a global downturn in
sales of personal computers, video-game consoles. http://www.shaker.com:591/research/layoffs.html
22 AUG 2001 |
 |
Telect, Inc. has eliminated 800 jobs in the United States and Mexico
since March, 2001. The new cuts are almost exclusively among marketing,
technical, sales and support workers. http://www.shaker.com:591/research/layoffs.html
22 AUG 2001 |
 |
Intel sinks after warning, Chipmaker's stock sinks further after it says it will miss sales forecasts,
March 9, 2001: 12:52 p.m. ET. NEW YORK (CNNfn) - Intel Corp., the world's biggest chipmaker,
said it was cutting 5,000 jobs to rein in
costs. Lower demand for chips used in the networking, communications and
server segments. |
 |
Cisco to cut 5 percent of staff [5% of 49,000 is 2,450], March 09, 2001 12:36 PM ET, Rex Crum.
http://www.upside.com/Communications/3aa914ad1_yahoo.html |
 |
Stamps.com
Cuts 40% of Workforce Following Net Industry Trend of Layoffs,
Jennifer Barrett,
TheStreet.com/NYTimes.com Staff Reporter, 10/23/00 6:21 PM
ET |
 |
Intel layoffs portend future Dawn Kawamoto and Michael
Kanellos,
Staff Writers, CNET News.com,
April 14, 1998, 6:20 p.m. PT. http://news.cnet.com/news/0,10000,0-1003-200-328381,00.html |
 |
Intel upside,
DuPont complex is growing again
, Steve Wilhelm, Staff Writer, Little more than a year after Intel Corp. announced it was laying off
650 people from its new plant in DuPont, the site has returned to
growth. ... Most of the new employees are computer engineers and
other degree-holding computer professionals, rather than the
lower-skilled and lower-paid assemblers who were laid off. http://seattle.bcentral.com/seattle/stories/1999/08/16/story1.html |
 |
IBM
announced in mid-August, 2002, that 15,000 people are being
fired. WTOP Radio (Washington, DC news radio, 1500 AM) 17 AUG
2002. |
|
 |
Careers in the Computer Industry [Text talks about specific technologies
and companies. Provide a more abstract view in lecture.]
 |
Job opportunities
 |
Companies that use computers |
 |
Software developers |
 |
Computer training and education |
 |
Manufacturers of computer hardware |
 |
Expansion and consolidation cycle: Driven by cost: availability of
trained people, hardware, software |
|
 |
The Computer and Communications Equipment Industry
 |
Research: physics, chemistry, materials science, electrical
engineering, applied mathematics, mathematical statistics, group
theory (mathematics). Universities, government, and very large
companies. Research leaders are Ph.D. level. Experimentation is done
by MS level. Equipment and system support is done at BS level. |
 |
Equipment Design: parts and systems. Industry. Concept
and design at MS level.
 |
Stand-alone systems |
 |
Embedded systems |
|
 |
Manufacturing: parts and assembly. Plant management at MS level.
Implementation and management of manufacturing lines at BS level.
Workers at AS or in-house non-degree people with on-the-job (OJT)
training. |
 |
Installation design and implementation: Industry, local business.
AS or OJT. |
 |
Repair and upgrade. Local business. AS or OJT. |
 |
Refurbish. Yet to be established on a large scale. Limited
opportunity of the future. Take old products and adapt them to new
uses. |
 |
Recycle and disposal. Local government, big business, EPA. |
|
 |
The Computer Software Industry
 |
System software, application software for end users and embedded
systems, software design tools |
 |
Research |
 |
Design |
 |
Programming |
 |
Reproduction |
 |
Distribution |
 |
Installation |
 |
Customer service, troubleshooting, training |
|
 |
IT Professionals
 |
Managers |
 |
System specification |
 |
System design and implementation |
 |
System hardware installation, operation, maintenance, repair |
 |
Software installation, administration, programming, training, help |
|
 |
IT Career Opportunities
 |
Core computer industry |
 |
Established businesses |
 |
Self employed |
|
 |
Working in an IT Department
 |
Getting a job: Current knowledge and skills |
 |
Promotion: Need of business, availability of funds |
 |
Keeping a job
 |
Working relations with managers, customers, fellow workers |
 |
Ethical conduct |
 |
Continuing education |
|
|
 |
Education and Training
 |
Institutionalized residential: University, Tech school, Commercial
training centers |
 |
Institutionalized tailored: Some tech schools, commercially
supplied on-site training |
 |
In-house training: large companies |
 |
Company funded individual training: Computer-based, web-based |
|
 |
Sales
 |
Industry-Business, Industry-Government, Business-Business,
Business-Government, Business-Consumer, Consumer-Consumer |
 |
Technical competence, business acumen, people skills, bureaucratic
tolerance |
|
 |
Service and Repair
 |
On-site |
 |
Remote diagnostics, directions to local repair tech |
 |
Depot level troubleshooting and repair |
|
 |
Consulting
 |
Fun, autonomy, risk, and profit |
 |
Technical competence, ability to produce |
 |
Need fundamental knowledge of business and human nature |
|
|
 |
Preparing for a Career in the Computer Industry
Choosing the Right Course
of Study
 |
Computer Science:
 |
The most rigorous level for software development.
Standards of accreditation by Association of Computing Machinery (ACM)
and IEEE generally ensure high quality programs. |
 |
Focus is on
understanding the principles of computers, theory of algorithms,
creation of system software, and application of computers to major and
complicated problems. |
 |
Learning computer programming languages is
NOT the focus of computer science. Students are generally expected to
learn programming languages on their own. |
|
 |
Electrical Engineering: The most rigorous level for hardware
development. IEEE standards apply. |
 |
Computer Engineering: Cross between computer science and electrical
engineering. Excellent program at major research universities;
watered down EE program at many schools. |
 |
Software Engineering: Preparation for productive work on major
software projects. Excellent program at major research universities;
watered down Computer Science program at many schools. |
 |
Computer Information Science: Tailored for business applications. Does
not require the level of computer theory or mathematics required of the
computer science major. |
Choosing the Right Level of Study
 |
Facts of Life
 |
Long term employment security and good high tech jobs require
excellent problem solving skills learned through hard work. Do
not avoid hard courses. Seek out the hard courses. |
 |
The internet company stocks are in decline, and there are massive
layoffs in the IT industry today, including very smart people.
Those people are now competing for jobs previously held by people
with less training. Once the displaced workers have been
absorbed back into the workforce, the job market will again
rebound. If you are willing to work hard, any time is a good
time to get in. If you want to compete, you have to be good. |
 |
Quality of education is a combination of how much you are
challenged by your instructor, the content (breadth and depth) of
your texts, and how much effort you devote to study. |
 |
An A in a tech school is worth a mid-level B in most 4-year
colleges for the amount of effort required. If you intend to
go on to a 4-year school, you must work hard. You CAN get the
same level of quality, but the enforcement of quality control will
fall much more on your shoulders. |
 |
Major research universities consider 4-year colleges and tech
schools inferior for the same level of education. If you want
a graduate degree, try to attend a major university for your
undergraduate work. Otherwise, you will be plagued with
retaking courses. |
 |
Credit
for life experience, military experience, and distance
education is a way of hooking you into going to a particular
college. Usually, residential courses are much more
demanding that corresponding easy-credit methods. The
value of the degree you get is measured by who will hire you
after you graduate, and what graduate school will admit you.
I strongly recommend against most of these schemes. I
have now warned you. No sweat, no get. |
 |
Some
military programs are worthwhile for transfer credit, such as
the Navy Nuclear Power program. Even more, if you are
interested in the Navy Nuclear Power Program as a means of
getting college education, you should know that a significant
number of U.S. Naval Academy Midshipmen were admitted after
attending all or most of Navy Nuclear Power School. Ask
the Naval Academy Admissions Office if this is your interest. |
 |
If
you are interested in the military as a way of getting a
college education, you should know that your first obligation
will be to the needs of the military. Military students
do get pulled from classes for deployment when terrorists fly
planes into buildings. Military students still have to
periodically do physical fitness tests and other duties at
academically inconvenient times. It is a very slow way
to get through college. Another way to consider is to
use loans to go to college, become an officer, and pay off the
loans with your higher income. You can also consider
ROTC. |
|
 |
Tech school 2-year degree (usually in 2.5 years)
 |
Education is
good for getting jobs with minimal cost
and training time. |
 |
Tech level employment opportunities
exist for people with
the right skills. |
 |
Tech level employment requires strong commitment to continued
training to keep pace of changes in hardware and software. |
 |
Excellent low-cost opportunity to develop foundational mathematics
skills prerequisites and computer programming language skill in C++
or Pascal expected in a 4-year computer science program. |
 |
In graduate school, many assistantships rely on use of skills
(networking, programming) that can be acquired in a tech school.
However, beware: students who accept assistantships to act as
department network administrators end up with very little time for
their own studies. You must agree in writing ahead of time
about limits to the amount of time you spend in such duties. |
|
 |
4-year degree (usually in 5 years)
 |
Strongly recommended. |
 |
Technology is changing rapidly. By learning fundamental
concepts, you will develop a better ability to anticipate changes
and absorb new concepts. It reduces the time required to learn
new technology. Principles of computing, networking, security,
business have not changed rapidly. Materials science has
changed. |
 |
Required to learn subjects outside of major area of study.
This is very helpful later in career. |
 |
Most expensive part of an education. |
|
 |
Graduate school
 |
Master's degree
 |
Usually 30 semester credit hours (2 years of classes) beyond a
BS, plus a good paper
and exam. |
 |
In USA, best cost-to-payback ratio for education for time and
income. |
 |
Working level for high-tech design work and management. |
|
 |
Ph.D. degree
 |
Research degree. |
 |
Usually 60 semester credit hours
(5 semesters of classes, plus 3 - 4 semesters of guided
and independent research) beyond a
BS, plus a significant paper, and written and oral comprehensive
exams. |
 |
In USA, the cost-to-payback ratio is not as good unless
coupled with a good MBA degree. Must love the field of
study. |
|
|
 |
Attending a Trade School,
VoTech School, Technical Community College
 |
As a preparation for employment,
strongly consider a co-op program
that includes internships at large businesses. |
 |
As a stepping stone to a 4-year college, vigorously check out the
details of credit transfer. Find out exactly what is included
in articulation agreements between a college and a tech
school.
 |
Transferability of credits is a function of the
receiving institution, not the sending institution, no matter what
is "promised" !!! |
 |
If you
plan on attending a particular school, contact that school to
determine what is transferable. Merely being transferable is
not enough. |
 |
The
total minimum number of credit hours for graduation is
the transfer category usually referenced in transferability
discussions. You also need to know about transfer
of credits towards satisfying degree program
requirements in your intended major and minor. |
 |
Schools
are businesses. They may measure
"profit" in "non-profitable" ways,
but they are still businesses. They generally want
at least 2 years of tuition out of you, no matter how it
is justified. Plan on it. |
|
|
 |
Planning for Career Development. Expert today, Ex-spurt
tomorrow. You must plan now to continually upgrade your knowledge
throughout your career. |
 |
Professional Organizations
 |
Association for Computing Machinery (ACM): http://www.acm.org/
 |
Algorithms and Computing Theory |
 |
Ada Programming Language |
 |
APL Programming Language |
 |
Applied Computing |
 |
Computer Architecture |
 |
Artificial Intelligence |
 |
Computers and the Physically Handicapped |
 |
Computers and Society |
 |
Computer-Human Interaction |
 |
Data Communication |
 |
Computer Personnel Research |
 |
Computer Science Education |
 |
Computer Uses in Education |
 |
Design Automation |
 |
Systems Documentation |
 |
Electronic Commerce |
 |
Computer Graphics and Interactive Techniques |
 |
Groupware |
 |
Information Retrieval |
 |
Knowledge Discovery in Data |
 |
Measurement and Evaluation |
 |
Microarchitecture |
 |
Management Information Systems |
 |
Multimedia |
 |
Mobility of Systems, Users, Data and Computing |
 |
Management of Data |
 |
Operating Systems |
 |
Programming Languages |
 |
Security, Audit and Control |
 |
Symbolic and Algebraic Manipulation |
 |
Simulation and Modeling |
 |
Software Engineering |
 |
Electronic Forum on Sound Technology |
 |
University and College Computing Services |
 |
Hypertext, Hypermedia and Web |
|
 |
Association of Information Technology Professionals (AITP)
[formerly DPMA: Data Processing Management Association] http://www.aitp.org/ |
 |
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), and
Special Interest Groups (SIG) on many areas of computing: http://www.ieee.org/organizations/tab/society.html
|
|
 |
Professional Growth and Continuing Education
 |
Academic professional society conferences: discuss research from
last 6 months to 2 years; registration fee is usually in the $150 -
$400 category. |
 |
University seminars: Thesis previews and hiring interviews;
discuss research from last 1 to 3 years; no registration, open to
the public, usually required for graduate students, usually free
coffee and fat pills (donuts). |
 |
Trade shows: discuss commercial offerings of products that might
be delivered during next 6 - 18 months |
 |
Commercial workshops and seminars: sales-oriented, discuss
commercial offerings of products recently delivered, and features
near introduction |
 |
Commercial short courses: usually $800 - $1500, vu-graph
specials. Good if you have a photographic memory, or need
quick refresher training for information you once knew. Poor
choice compared to studying hard. Like "Internet Guru in
1 month courses for $6000", it is a bad investment. |
|
 |
Computer Publications
 |
Weekly and Monthly Rags: PC Week, ComputerWorld, InfoWorld.
Advertiser-driven articles. Lots of hype. Sometimes very
good for announcing new products. Poor source for fundamental
knowledge or understanding. Good for understanding business
aspects of IT industry. Better sources are stock market
analysts' reports. |
 |
Textbooks |
 |
Professional society journals |
|
|
 |
Computer Certification
 |
What is Computer Certification?
 |
Certification by vendor-sponsored institutions that you have
mastered use of a vendor's software to a predetermined degree of
knowledge and skill. |
 |
Re-certification issue: products continuously changing. |
 |
Tyranny of credentialism extended to journeyman level. |
|
 |
Types of Computer Certification
 |
Software Applications Certifications
 |
Microsoft
Office User |
|
 |
Operating Systems Certifications
 |
MCP: Microsoft Certified Professional |
 |
Microsoft Certified Systems Engineer |
 |
Red Hat Certified Engineer |
|
 |
Programming:
 |
Institute for Certification of Computing Professionals (ICCP):
Might be useful in a business environment |
 |
Not important in a scientific or engineering environment |
|
 |
Hardware Certifications
 |
A+, Computing Technology Industry: PC setup, maintenance,
troubleshooting, system software |
|
 |
Networking Certifications:
 |
MSCE |
 |
CCIE: CISCO. Talk with Anthony Cameron or Jim Shirley at
FTCC.
 |
CCNA: CISCO Certified Networking Associate; 5 courses,
multiple choice tests, practical projects must be completed
and demonstrated. |
 |
CCNP: CISCO Certified Networking Professional |
 |
CCDA: CISCO Certified Design Associate |
 |
CCDP: CISCO Certified Design Professional |
|
 |
CNE: Novell, Certified Novell Engineer |
|
|
 |
A Guide to Computer Certification |
 |
Certification Benefits
 |
Very good for breaking into a job market without prior
experience. A successful Washington, DC IT company CEO told me
prior on-the-job experience is more valuable than a certification in
the hiring process. You should seek both certification and
coop experience. |
 |
Tech schools vary greatly in quality. This is a way of
comparing knowledge. Tech school students should take
certification exams as soon as course work is completed that
pertains to the certification exam. FTCC quality is good in
networking. |
 |
Might be important to a company that is competing for government
contracts. |
 |
Important for government employees for promotion consideration. |
 |
Can help mid-grade to senior enlisted personnel in promotion to
grades requiring a selection board. |
|
 |
Choosing a Computer Certification
 |
Understand Why YOU want a certification |
 |
Check the job market requirements |
 |
Consider time and cost requirements |
 |
Learn about what the certifications certify |
 |
Talk with prospective employers about certification value |
|
 |
Preparing for Computer Certification
 |
Self study: good for book-based knowledge and computer based
training module study. |
 |
On-line courses: Variation of computer-based courses. This
is good for vendor-specific knowledge. This mode allows the vendor
to place the latest changes, and to make corrections. It has the
problem that the internet connection must be reliable. You
would not want to use Internet Service Providers that limit
your connection time or require frequent clicking on ads. Find
a no-frills local Internet Service Provider (about $6 - $15 per
month). |
 |
Short Course: Commercial short courses are very expensive.
OK if someone else is paying for it. Good for letting you know
what you do not know, and about new products. Unless you have
a photographic memory, this is rarely a good choice for self-funded
initial training. |
 |
Traditional live-instructor class: mandatory for
construction/installation skills. This also is valuable in a
tech school when the instructor has community contacts that can lead
to future employment, internships, and summer work. |
|
 |
Computer Certification Examinations
 |
Not free. Some are expensive. |
 |
Community college testing is more cost effective when it is
available. |
|
 |
Career development after Computer Certification
 |
Recertification: Products change. Testing agencies want more
money. Forgetting factor is real. |
|
|