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Erklärung von Eugen P. Ericksen |
AFFIDAVIT OF EUGENE P. ERICKSENUNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT EASTERN DISTRICT OF PENNSYLVANIA MUMIA ABU-JAMAL, -vs- MARTIN HORN, Commissioner of the AFFIDAVIT OF PROFESSOR EUGENE P. ERICKSEN IN SUPPORT OF PETITION FOR WRIT OF HABEAS CORPUS I, PROFESSOR EUGENE P. ERICKSEN, declare: INTRODUCTION 1. I am a Professor of Sociology and Statistics at Temple University where I have taught since 1971. I received my Ph.D. in Sociology with a concentration in Population Studies from the University of Michigal in 1971. I am a Fellow of the American Statistical Association. I have over 30 years experience as a survey statistician. I have served on various expert panels of the National Academy of Sciences and have testified in the federal courts on numerous occasions as an expert witness in the area of statistics. I have testified before committees of the United States Congress on numerous occasions, most frequently with regard to the United States Census. From 1989-1991, I was Co-Chair of the Commerce Department's Special Advisory Panel on the 1990 Census. A copy of my curriculum vitae is attached hereto as EXHIBIT "A". The statements in my curriculum vitae are true. 2. I have been requested by the attorneys for Petitioner Mumia Abu-Jamal to evaluate the use of peremptory challenges by the prosecution in the trial of Petitioner Jamal to detemine whether it was "race-neutral" or "race-related." Based upon my experience and training as a statistician, the information I have been provided, and the assumptions I have made, it is my opinion that it is highly improbable that the prosecution's use of peremptory challenges was "race-neutral." It is my opinion that it is highly probable that the prosecution's use of peremptory challenges was race-related. It is specifically my opinion that it is highly improbable that the prosecution's use of peremptory challenges to excuse Black venirepersons from Petitioner Jamal's jury was unrelated to their race. It is specifically my opinion that it is highly probable that the prosecution's use of peremptory challenges to excuse Black venirepersons from Petitioner Jamal's jury was related to their race. 3. The details of my qualifications, additional opinions, and the specific basis for my opinions is set forth in the remainder of this declaration: QUALIFICATIONS 4. I received a Bachelor of Science Degree in Mathematics from the University of Chicago in 1963 and a Master of Science Degree in Mathematical Statistics from the University of Michigan in 1965. I earned a Ph.D. in Sociology with a concentration in Population Studies from the University of Michigan in 1971. In my doctoral dissertation, I developed a method for estimating the size and characteristics of state and county populations for years where census data were unavailable. 5. I have taught at Temple University since 1971. My courses are concentrated in the areas of Statistical Methodology, Research Design, and Sociological and Demographic Methods. I also teach regularly in the Department of Statistics. In recent years I have taught a graduate seminar in the Thoery of Sampling and courses in Survey Research Methods. I was promoted to the rank of Professor in 1988. I became a Special Consultant to National Economic Research Associates in 1986 and was elected a Fellow of the American Statistical Association in 1991. 6. I have over 30 years experience as a survey statistician specializing in the construction of samples, the estimation of sampling and non-sampling erors arising from the collection of sampling data, and the evaluation of such data. Beginning in 1964, I was a graduate student trainee at the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan. From 1970 through 1981, I was SAmpling Statistician at the Institute for Survey Research at Temple University, and from 1981 through 1984, I held a similar position at Mathematica Policy Research in Princeton, New Jersey. Since then I have continued to engage in numerous sampling projects both for scientific research and litigation. 7. I have authored numerous scholarly publications in the field of statistics, which are listed in my curriculum vitae attached to this declaration. I have served on various expert panels of the National Academy of Sciences, including one whose purpose was to evaluate the methods used by the Bureau of the Census to estimate post-censal populations changes. From 1989-1991, I was Co-Chair of the Commerce Department's Special Advisory Panel on the 1990 Census.This panel was appointed by Secretary of Commerce Robert Mosbacher to advise him on whether or not the 1990 Census should be adjusted for the differential undercounting of minority populations. I have testified before congressional committees on many occasions, most often on subjects concerning the United States Census. 8. I have testified many times in Federal Court as an expert in the field of statistics, particularly with regard to the United States Census. I have been accepted as an expert witness in the field of statistics by the United States District Courts for the Southern and Eastern Districts of New York, the Eastern District of Pennsylvania, the Eastern District of California, the District of Massachusetts, and the Northern District of Georgia. OPINIONS AND THEIR BASIS 9. I have been advised that 43 venirepersons went through the jury selection process until the jury was chosen for Petitioner Jamal's trial. Thus, the prosecution had the opportunity to accept or, by use of its peremptory challenges, reject 43 potential jurors, of whom 15, or 35%, were Black. I have also been advised that the prosecution used its peremptory challenges to reject 15 potential jurors, thereby accepting the remaining 28. If the prosecution's rejections and acceptances were "race-neutral," it would be expected that 35% of their rejections (5 potential jurors) would be Black and 35% of their acceptances (10 people) would also be Black. However, I have been advised that 4 of the potential jurors rejected by the prosecution were White while ll of the potential jurors rejected by the prosecution were Black. 10. I have calculated the probability that this could have happened by chance, using standard statistical procedures. It has long been the accepted methodology among statisticians to use the "hypergeometric distribution" to calculate the probabilities or different numbers of Whites or Blacks being among such a sample as that of the 15 potential jurors peremptorily challenged by the prosecution in Petitioner Jamal's trial. That is the method I have used to make the calculations which are the basis for my opinions in this case. 11. If the prosecution's striking of potential jurors were "race-neutral," i.e. done without reference to the person's race, the probability that 11 or more of the challenged jurors would be Black is extremely small. I have calculated that probability to be 0.0194% or 1 out of 5,155. 12. If it is assumed that 10 of the potential jurors who were peremptorily challenged by the prosecution were Black, and 5 White, it is extremely improbable that 10 or more of the challenged jurors would be Black. I have calculated that probability to be 0.2108%, or 1 out of 474. 13. If it is assumed that 9 of the potential jurors who were peremptorily challenged by the prosecution were Black, and 6 White, it is extremely improbable that 9 or more of the challenged jurors would be Black. I have calculated that probability to be 1.4712% or 1 out of 68. 14. Making the different assumptions in Paragraphs 12 and 13 does not change my opinions expressed in Paragraph 2, above. 15. I have rechecked my calculations by repeating them using a computer simulation program. This yielded the same results, thereby confirming the validity of the original calculations. Had the prosecution's exercise of peremptory challenges in the selection of the jury for Petitioner Jamal's trial been "race-neutral" is is extremely improbable that only 4 (or even 5 or 6) of the potential jurors rejected would have been White. I declare under penalty of perjury under the laws of the United States of America that the above is true and correct and was executed by me on,2001, at Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. EUGENE P. ERICKSEN, Ph.D. |