Like Zinedine Zinedane?CLICK HERE!
FOOTBALL IN FRANCE
As in other countries in Europe, Football is the most
popular sport in France. The whole country was
behind its team in 1998, and victory was heavily
celebrated that summer, with scenes of collective
jubilation only comparable to the ones observed at
the Liberation of Paris!
The footballing successes were regarded at that time
as indirect evidence of the strength of the nation.
Economic performance had been improving
markedly since 1997, after a dismal first half of the
decade due to the many sacrifices necessary to
qualify for EMU. After the World Cup, the nation
took further confidence in its own capacity to be
successful. Household confidence shot up to
unprecedented highs and remained in euphoric mood
up until very recently, buoyed by the steady and fast
decline in unemployment. Both Prime Minister
Jospin and President Chirac were very popular
thanks to a smooth political “cohabitation”. The 1998
victorywas also regarded at that time as success of the
French integration model for former immigrants, as
many of the best players had parents of foreign
origins (such as Zidane, Desailly, Thuram etc).
In spite of the 1998 unprecedented victory, France
does not stand as a great football nation comparable
to Italy, England or Spain. The domestic football
league is weak, with no great French clubs able to get
consistently good results or to compete in European
Leagues. Most of the best French players are playing
abroad. French clubs are not rich enough to cope with
the wage hyperinflation that has characterised the
market for top players in recent years. TV fees, and
maybe even radio fees, are the main sources of
financing of football in France, but the government
has always been reluctant to authorise floatation on
the stock market.
THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY
In the past four years, France has proven to be one of
the most dynamic countries in Euroland. GDP
growth outpaced growth in the rest of the region,
especially Germany and Italy,while French inflation
consistently ran below Euroland inflation. This
strong performancewasmade possible by significant
progress in structural reforms since the mid-90s.
Labour market flexibility and deregulation in product
markets were the main ingredients.
Yet, benefits from past reforms have started to fade
away.As amatter of fact, French economic policy has
gradually frozen during the last twelve months. The
prospect of elections looming in spring 2002 has
made the Government very cautious with unpopular
reform. This was re-enforced by the painful
“Cohabitation”.
In this context, France’s strong performance has
gradually lost its shine. As structural reforms lost
steam, and the resolve to rein in public spending
weakened, the additional boost to French activity has
gradually vanished, and fiscal deficit has gone away
from the path initially set in successive Stability
Programmes. The French economy has not been
particularly spared from the recent downturn, as
suggested by the 1.4% (annualised) contraction in
GDP in the fourth quarter of 2001 and the slow but
steady increase in unemployment since the middle of
2001.
As in the rest of Euroland, France will now benefit
from the global recovery. Many signs of a robust
industrial recovery have accumulated, with business
The World Cup and Economics 20 World Cup 2002
THE 2002 WORLD CUP
France won the World Cup for the first time in
1998, at home. This was the result of a careful and
long-planned preparation of a generation of
high-talented individuals. Thanks to this
momentum, France has accumulated a series of
good results since then, the most significant one
being a (lucky) golden-goal victory against Italy in
the final of the 2000 European Championship.
The loss of England’s Player of the Year, Pires to
injury was not good news for the French team.
Despite this, it is not surprising to see France as one
of the favourites to win the World Cup this year,
though there have only been two instances where a
country has successfully defended the trophy
(Italy 1934, 1938; Brazil 1958, 1962). Anything
less than semi-final participation would be
disappointing. However, this will prove difficult,
as France is part of a very difficult half of the draw
including Brazil, Argentina and England.
confidence steadily improving, and early indications
that unemployment has started to level off.However,
the scope for a spectacular rebound in growth
remains limited, as final demand will recover only
gradually.GDPgrowthwill ease to 1.2% in 2002, and
will not exceed trend in 2003, as fiscal policy may
have to turn more restrictive.
THE STATE OF THE NATION
In contrast with 1998, theWorld Cup does not appear
as the most important event of the year. The shocking
exit of former Prime Minister Jospin from the first
round of the French Presidential election, and the
victory by right wing politician Le Pen shocked the
nation almost into a state of emergency. After
President Chirac’s convincing victory in the second
round of the Presidential elections (82%), the focus is
now on the National Assembly elections on June 9
and 16. The party (or coalition) which controls the
National Assembly effectively runs the government.
Assuming a centre-right victory - the nowmost likely
outcome -the new government will have a good
opportunity to implement a programme of structural
reforms: lower tax and social contributions,
privatisation, deregulation of public enterprises and
the introduction of private pension funds. However,
we continue to see a clear risk that public deficit will
remain high.
France is now a more anxious country than in 1998,
with difficult reforms ahead (labour market, EU
reforms, size of the public sector in the economy,
pension reform) and a lot of concerns about the recent
increase in crime. This probably puts theWorld Cup
as a less powerful event than four years ago, as France
now feels less confident of its own strength.We will
see if the exceptional French football team will be
able to prolong the successes from the past a bit
longer,while the country is nowmore focused on the
difficult road ahead.
Previous Appearances: 10
1930, 1934, 1938, 1954, 1958, 1966, 1978, 1982,
1986, 1998
Honours
Winners: 1998
Semifinalists: 1958 (3rd), 1982 (4th), 1986 (3rd)
Hosts: 1938, 1998
|