Poland

FOOTBall in Poland During the dark ages of communism, Polish football flourished. Remember how legendary coach Gorski took his team to Olympic gold in 1972, a third place at the 1974world championships, and Olympic silver in 1976. Even after he left, Poland did well in the following three world championships, including reaching a third place in 1982. But later in the 1980s, it was over. Martial law was lifted in 1989, and the Poles set about transforming their economy. Being busy with that left them little time to think about football, and the national team failed to qualify for any of the international tournaments. STATE OF THE ECONOMY However, with transition came western style institutions, including an independent central bank. Keen on showing that Poland belongs in the low-inflation EU, it began raising interest rates in an unprecedented fashion in the summer of 1999. Not surprisingly, while inflation indeed fell to EU levels, GDP growth plummeted and unemployment skyrocketed. With time on their hands, the youth returned to the football practising grounds, while established players accelerated their move to wealthier foreign clubs. As a result, Poland easily qualified for this year’s championship. Of the expected starting team, only two play in Poland, while the stars include one of Europe’s best goalkeepers, Jerzy Dudek of Liverpool and the Bundeliga’s possibly best defenderTomaszWaldoch of Schalke 04. Also,EmmanuelOlisadebe - Nigerian born, Polish married and naturalised - normally plays for Panathinaikos Athens. He is still struggling with the Polish language - but aren’t we all? Poland is in Group D with South Korea, USA and Portugal. On present form, Poland should easily win the group, but in order not to offend Portugal so shortly before the critical conclusion of the EU membership negotiations, we expect the team to volunteer a retreat to a second place, thus saving the Portuguese from a bruising 1/8 clash with one of the true power houses of Croatia, Italy or Mexico. STATE OF THE NATION If this turns out to be Poland’s Waterloo, the prediction power of our leading economic indicator for Polish growth will indeed be vindicated: In recent weeks, we have seen an increasing number of signs that the Polish economy is coming through the trough. The key topic in Warsaw’s economics and business communities is therefore why the Monetary Policy Council has not cut interest rates more aggressively, given the and huge real interest rates. Now, we know: A delayed recovery should increase the national team’s chances of success in Asia. Therefore, we recommend that any bet on Poland’s football team in Asia be hedged against domestic interest rates. THE 2002 WORLD CUP If the traditional, strongly negative correlation between economic performance and the success of the Polish national team holds, Poland will do brilliantly in Asia this summer. Poland has missed every international tournament in the last 16 years, because the population and players seemed more occupied with liberating society from communism and getting rich, than with playing football. But the last 18 months have seen a serious slowdown in growth and unprecedented acceleration in unemployment, sending the youth back to the practice fields, and in the process becoming good enough to qualify for the championship. Previous Appearances: 5 1938, 1974, 1978, 1982, 1986 Honours Semifinalists: 1974 (3rd), 1982 (3rd) Odds 80 - 1