The 'regular columnist' thing hasn't really worked out as I get the irregular column about 2-3 times a month during the season. So here I am, back to give visitors a reason to click on the columns section of the site.

This here is my Red Sox preview 2003, I watched very few Spring Training games, and I'm using absolutely no numbers (unless they're from memory), so I'm basically writing this on the fly, so without further adeu...

I can understand the concern these fans have, my biggest concern is that pretty much the entire pen is full of guys who are coming back from major injuries or were stuck in a career of mediocrity before a career season in 2002. Both of those factors would make anyone fear the worst. But look at it this way, the pen couldn't possibly be worse than last year, so no matter what we get, it'll be an improvement. After the 15 or so losses Frank Castillo piled up, the pen was the #1 cause for the Sox failure to make the playoffs last year.

So that said, I think the pen improves this year. Though there really isn't anywhere to go but up.

We all know Fossum had his arse handed to him just about all of spring. If that continues into the season I guess we'll have a Frank Castillo clone. There are options though if Fossum continues to flop into the season. Robert Person has looked great all spring and Ramiro Mendoza is no stranger to starting either. So if need be Casey can head to the pen or back to the Paw-Sox if he doesn't get his head glued on straight.

The top half of the rotation again will have to take the brunt of the load. I can see Pedro having a banner year, which I think he'll have to do to make up for the 3-4 less wins I beleive Derek Lowe will end up with. I think Lowe will still be excellent, but not quite as good as last year.

Wakes is always a flip of the coin (as is the case with knucklers). His #1 job is to save the pen (especially this one) and toss 220-240 innings for the season. A .500 record is the highest of expectations you should have on a knuckler, and it's all gravy after that when it all clicks like it did for Tim last season.

The key to this game is consistancy. Brian Daubach, though loved by many a fan, and a producer of respectable numbers every year, is the posterboy for inconsistancy. Unless your talking about yearly totals (of which Dauber produced nearly 3 identical seasons of .260-.270, 20HR, 80RBI) you never knew which Brian Daubach was going to show up each week.

One week he'd hit .550 with 5HRs and 16RBIs, then for the next two weeks he'd go 0-56 with barely a foul ball. It's easier to say stuff like this after the fact, but I would always pick the consistant player over the streaker.

Trot Nixon is another culprit of this, but to a lesser extent. He doesn't go into the funks that Dauber is suseptable to, but he does have streaks of piling it on, making his numbers look better than they might actualyl be. Trot has consistantly destoryed the Detroit Tigers. There's no explanation for it, but when he heads out to Detroit, or the Tigers come to town, I wish Trot could bat 1-9.

Take a look at his numbers just against the Tiges for the last couple of seasons and then compare them to the years totals. If you turn the #s into percentages, you'll get a large chunk that were accumulated just against the Tiges. I'll go as far as to say that 10 to 20% of his production in some categories come just against Detroit.

But anyway, getting back to Brian Daubach, and first base. In limited playing time Jeremy Giambi, and David Ortiz have both showed that they can be productive hitters. Defense aside, I see no reason (judging from past seasons) why we can't expect as many as 30 HRs from first base this season along with 100+ RBIs. That's also factoring in time at first from Shea and Kevin Millar, all solid hitters.

Lets see now, .265 20 80 from Daubach, or .270 30, 100 from the platoon? Hmmmm, I wonder which is more productive.

I believe that Nomar will alo have a huge year now that he's 2 years removed from the wrist injury, and remember we didn't have a full season of Manny last year (just imagine what he could have done had he not broke his finger in Seattle).

So lets see, more production from 2nd, 1st, and relatively speaking from LF and SS. Oh lets not forget that Trot won't be allowed to be gawd awful against lefties anymore either. Guys like Millar and Giambi will probably give Trot a spell when a southpaw is on the mound, and oh yeah, Tek is now fully recoved from the broken elbow as well. So lets add more production to RF and C as well.

Obvioulsy injuries play a big part, this whole theory gets blown out of the water if someone breaks a leg tomorrow, but those are things that are understood. At least I hope they are.

So I guess that was just alot of me blubbering on about a bunch of random stuff (and how Ordway annoys me) rather than a season preview, but I think I got my point across.

No idea when the next installment of 1918 might hit the web-ways, guess you'll have to wait (VERY patiently) and see.

paul@redsox2000.com