After watching part of last Tuesday’s game as Pedro and “mini” Pedro squared off head to head I was expecting the elder would become triumphant. Because of a prior engagement I missed the rest of the game. I looked in the newspaper and saw Pedro’s line first and saw 8 ip, 3h, 2er, 9k. This is great, another stellar performance from the best pitcher in baseball. I started off ecstatic and joyous of his achievements, until I read on.There was a problem though. I saw an “L”. An “L”, why is there an L next to Pedro’s name? I look a little further and see “mini” Pedro, Ortiz, who, coming into this game had an era over 6.00, allowed only 2 hits in 9 innings. It could only happen to us.
After finishing with Anaheim and weekend series with Texas with a 3-3 record I wondered what the W's had in common with one another. Then what did the losses have in common. Here is what I found.
I’m sure like most Red Sox fans, everyone has their ideas on why we lose many games including the last Pedro game (hitting), and why we continue to lose (mostly hitting). Losing sucks. There are so many different things following the Red Sox nowadays, from Carl vs. Jimy, scratch that maybe it’s Carl vs. everyone to a different lineup every night to the media now asking Jimy about his contract and his relationship to Dan Duquette.
There are plenty of reasons why the Sox are not winning, however, from my watching games and reading the boxscores I fit in with the majority and can only ask when will we hit consistently. I tend to get a little heated and wonder why this happens to the Red Sox. Then I simply say to myself, “this is really what makes a Red Sox fan.” The anguish and frustration of losing close games, not performing well, or making stupid errors (as if any errors were smart).
Last week we played three straight games only scoring one run in each game, this totals 11 games scoring only 1-run. We were 2-9 in those games. Throughout the season the name of the game has been anti-clutch or left-on-base. I have to say those are probably the most important times in baseball to get your one hit for the game. Alas, we can’t do that. I do give credit when it's due, and when the Sox lose 9-7 or 15-10, I don't critisize the hitting, because they did their job.
Most of you who read my articles, know I will eventually produce some sabermetrics for enlightenment. I started to wonder, just how bad is the hitting. All figures are through Sunday nights game in Texas.
After crunching some numbers I found that the Red Sox are scoring 4.97 runs per game. That is over half a run lower than the average of .500 or better teams in the AL. How are we staying above the water’s edge? To make it worse if I were to take the five highest and lowest run games this season, the runs per game average drops to 4.79. When the entire AL is figured, the league average is 5.37 runs per game.
I have also looked at the games we have been losing in relation to the AL average runs per game. The Boston Red Sox are 21-38 when they score less than 5 runs per game, that’s a .356 winning percentage. This means they have a 38-16 record when they score 5 or more runs, .703 WP. Just about every other team in the AL scores more runs than the Red Sox, however if the Sox can manage 5 or more runs per game they have a very good chance of winning.
A few other notes to take care of here. Who do you think is first and second in runs per game average? The Chicago White Sox and Seattle Mariners. Who has the best and second best record in the AL? Chicago White Sox and the Seattle Mariners. Coincidence…I don’t think so.
In games where Pedro Martinez pitches the Red Sox are 14-6. Of those games, when the Red Sox score less than 5 runs they are 7-5 this season. Give credit where credit is due…way to go Pedro.
Only 3 teams in the American League score fewer runs per game; Tampa Bay (4.91), Minnesota (4.73), and Detroit (4.78). That is awful. Only one Tampa Bay has a worse batting average at .265 than the Red Sox .266.
I mentioned before the Sox are 19-37 when scoring under 5 runs. Well in order to see how bad it gets, when they score under 6 runs they are 28-45, still a morbid .383 winning percentage. This means they are 31-9 when they score more than the AL average. Only nine times have they scored 6 or more runs and lost the game. Directly attributable to the pitching. Six runs is definately enough to win games. I can't beleive I just said that, 5 or 10 years ago I would have said 4 runs is enough to win games. For this article I am not going to get into it and start pointing fingers. They lose as a team and therefore get criticized as a team. The team scores runs. Individuals help it happen. I doubt there will be a future article on the players and what they’re performance means to the team since most of that changes from day to day and can be discussed on the message board.
This article is targeted to enlighten you on the scoring of the team this year. Don’t get me wrong there are other factors involved for the team to win. They need to catch the ball (4 AL teams have less errors), they need to throw the ball (best era in AL, 2nd behind Atlanta in MLB), and they need to hit the ball (2nd lowest batting average in AL). Now, I am a student of national league baseball, so normally I would also include baserunning (which is pretty bad anyway) however I will abstain for now. I think it is pretty obvious where the Red Sox need to focus their practices.
Offense wins games...pitching and defense wins championships. You never get a shot at a championship unless you can hit.