Employment by the Numbers

Job creation seems to be the statistic of the year. Criticism falls to Bush because of the barely changed employment numbers over the past 4 years. There are 913,000 less people on the payroll between January 2001 and today. There is also the very loudly touted statistic that Clinton created 22 million jobs. Finally, there is the comparison figure that 150,000 jobs must be created every month to keep up with the pace of US population growth. That would make a smaller number of jobs over a period a serious loss per capita.

Two numbers were very interesting. One hundred and fifty thousand new jobs to keep up with population growth. Are there that many more people in the US every month? Not exactly. There are more. According to census data, between 1990 and 2000 there were 32.6 million more people in the country or 272,000 for each month. However, only about half ot the US population works (accounting for kids, spouses, retired and general leeches). In 2000, the average employment level was 131.8 million jobs and the population was 281.4 million. This means 46.8% of the US population works (or less accounting for more than one job). With a monthly population increase of 272,000, the working population increase is 127,000. However, I will accept the 150,000 figure that economists use.

Going back to employment data, There were 109.7 million jobs in January 1993 and 132.4 million jobs in January 2001. That is a net gain of 22.7 million jobs. This is the second interesting number. Comparing the two leads to a very interesting conclusion. If it is true that 150,000 new jobs a month keeps pace with the population, then 1.8 million jobs should be created a year. Over 8 years, the number would be 14.4 million jobs. 22.7 million jobs represents an overage of 8.3 million jobs or over 86,000 more jobs than should be necessary per month.

One might ask how could so many jobs be created when the population shouldn't be able to support them. The answer would be similar to how the stock market rose to over 11,000 or how tech companies that were worthless traded for $100 a share. A company will offer large amounts of money to get workers and some workers will work multiple jobs. In fact, the relative stabilization in the unemployment rate would suggest that during this job boom, people were working 2 or three jobs. Multiple jobs seems to be a criticism now.

What's worse is this job increase put companies on notice that the employable population was dwindling and low unemployment could let employees write their own ticket. Outsourcing is regularly talked about now, but NAFTA in the early 90s started the outsourcing trend and the possibility of Americans empowered with needed skills accelerated this. This is why unsustainable job growth can ultimately hurt an economy.

Cool chart

This fun plot compares a constant growth rate of 150,000 jobs to the actual job creation numbers. The values above 130 million form a nice bubble indicative of the economic boom and bust in the late 90s. As the lines continue, actual jobs fall back into line with expected jobs. In fact, as of August 2004, the difference between expected jobs and actual jobs is 900,000 which is almost exactly where Bush's numbers are.

Methods:

The 150,000 jobs per month figure is somewhat controversial and was not taken from a specific source. The expected jobs figure (blue line) was generated using a baseline value of 109.725 million jobs using Bureau of Labor Statistics for January 1993. This baseline was then increased by 150,000 each month.

The 913,000 lost jobs value was taken by subtracting (preliminary) job numbers in August 2004 from job numbers in January 2001.

Census data was gathered from http://www.census.gov/statab/www/poppart.html.

Job numbers were gathered from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Chart data (red line) using data in the format below.
Month
 Employment
(thousands)
 Change
 Jobs
(x1000)
 Expected
 Difference
(thousands)
Month
 Employment
(thousands)
 Change
 Jobs
(x1000)
 Expected
 Difference
(thousands)
Jan 1993 109725










Feb 1993 109962 237000 150 109875 87
Jan 1999 127477 113000 10800 120525 6952
Mar 1993 109916 -46000 300 110025 -109
Feb 1999 127873 396000 10950 120675 7198
Apr 1993 110223 307000 450 110175 48
Mar 1999 127997 124000 11100 120825 7172
May 1993 110496 273000 600 110325 171
Apr 1999 128379 382000 11250 120975 7404
Jun 1993 110660 164000 750 110475 185
May 1999 128593 214000 11400 121125 7468
Jul 1993 110960 300000 900 110625 335
Jun 1999 128850 257000 11550 121275 7575
Aug 1993 111119 159000 1050 110775 344
Jul 1999 129145 295000 11700 121425 7720
Sep 1993 111359 240000 1200 110925 434
Aug 1999 129338 193000 11850 121575 7763
Oct 1993 111638 279000 1350 111075 563
Sep 1999 129525 187000 12000 121725 7800
Nov 1993 111901 263000 1500 111225 676
Oct 1999 129947 422000 12150 121875 8072
Dec 1993 112203 302000 1650 111375 828
Nov 1999 130242 295000 12300 122025 8217
Jan 1994 112473 270000 1800 111525 948
Dec 1999 130536 294000 12450 122175 8361
Feb 1994 112665 192000 1950 111675 990
Jan 2000 130730 194000 12600 122325 8405
Mar 1994 113133 468000 2100 111825 1308
Feb 2000 130876 146000 12750 122475 8401
Apr 1994 113490 357000 2250 111975 1515
Mar 2000 131369 493000 12900 122625 8744
May 1994 113829 339000 2400 112125 1704
Apr 2000 131677 308000 13050 122775 8902
Jun 1994 114139 310000 2550 112275 1864
May 2000 131908 231000 13200 122925 8983
Jul 1994 114498 359000 2700 112425 2073
Jun 2000 131883 -25000 13350 123075 8808
Aug 1994 114801 303000 2850 112575 2226
Jul 2000 132043 160000 13500 123225 8818
Sep 1994 115155 354000 3000 112725 2430
Aug 2000 132015 -28000 13650 123375 8640
Oct 1994 115361 206000 3150 112875 2486
Sep 2000 132104 89000 13800 123525 8579
Nov 1994 115786 425000 3300 113025 2761
Oct 2000 132134 30000 13950 123675 8459
Dec 1994 116056 270000 3450 113175 2881
Nov 2000 132317 183000 14100 123825 8492
Jan 1995 116377 321000 3600 113325 3052
Dec 2000 132441 124000 14250 123975 8466
Feb 1995 116588 211000 3750 113475 3113
Jan 2001 132388 -53000 14400 124125 8263
Mar 1995 116808 220000 3900 113625 3183
Feb 2001 132492 104000 14550 124275 8217
Apr 1995 116971 163000 4050 113775 3196
Mar 2001 132507 15000 14700 124425 8082
May 1995 116962 -9000 4200 113925 3037
Apr 2001 132236 -271000 14850 124575 7661
Jun 1995 117189 227000 4350 114075 3114
May 2001 132237 1000 15000 124725 7512
Jul 1995 117260 71000 4500 114225 3035
Jun 2001 132087 -150000 15150 124875 7212
Aug 1995 117538 278000 4650 114375 3163
Jul 2001 131972 -115000 15300 125025 6947
Sep 1995 117777 239000 4800 114525 3252
Aug 2001 131831 -141000 15450 125175 6656
Oct 1995 117926 149000 4950 114675 3251
Sep 2001 131564 -267000 15600 125325 6239
Nov 1995 118070 144000 5100 114825 3245
Oct 2001 131203 -361000 15750 125475 5728
Dec 1995 118210 140000 5250 114975 3235
Nov 2001 130871 -332000 15900 125625 5246
Jan 1996 118192 -18000 5400 115125 3067
Dec 2001 130659 -212000 16050 125775 4884
Feb 1996 118627 435000 5550 115275 3352
Jan 2002 130494 -165000 16200 125925 4569
Mar 1996 118882 255000 5700 115425 3457
Feb 2002 130404 -90000 16350 126075 4329
Apr 1996 119047 165000 5850 115575 3472
Mar 2002 130447 43000 16500 126225 4222
May 1996 119376 329000 6000 115725 3651
Apr 2002 130379 -68000 16650 126375 4004
Jun 1996 119647 271000 6150 115875 3772
May 2002 130381 2000 16800 126525 3856
Jul 1996 119875 228000 6300 116025 3850
Jun 2002 130406 25000 16950 126675 3731
Aug 1996 120078 203000 6450 116175 3903
Jul 2002 130295 -111000 17100 126825 3470
Sep 1996 120296 218000 6600 116325 3971
Aug 2002 130306 11000 17250 126975 3331
Oct 1996 120534 238000 6750 116475 4059
Sep 2002 130259 -47000 17400 127125 3134
Nov 1996 120826 292000 6900 116625 4201
Oct 2002 130342 83000 17550 127275 3067
Dec 1996 121003 177000 7050 116775 4228
Nov 2002 130305 -37000 17700 127425 2880
Jan 1997 121232 229000 7200 116925 4307
Dec 2002 130096 -209000 17850 127575 2521
Feb 1997 121526 294000 7350 117075 4451
Jan 2003 130190 94000 18000 127725 2465
Mar 1997 121843 317000 7500 117225 4618
Feb 2003 130031 -159000 18150 127875 2156
Apr 1997 122134 291000 7650 117375 4759
Mar 2003 129921 -110000 18300 128025 1896
May 1997 122396 262000 7800 117525 4871
Apr 2003 129901 -20000 18450 128175 1726
Jun 1997 122642 246000 7950 117675 4967
May 2003 129873 -28000 18600 128325 1548
Jul 1997 122918 276000 8100 117825 5093
Jun 2003 129859 -14000 18750 128475 1384
Aug 1997 122911 -7000 8250 117975 4936
Jul 2003 129814 -45000 18900 128625 1189
Sep 1997 123417 506000 8400 118125 5292
Aug 2003 129789 -25000 19050 128775 1014
Oct 1997 123756 339000 8550 118275 5481
Sep 2003 129856 67000 19200 128925 931
Nov 1997 124063 307000 8700 118425 5638
Oct 2003 129944 88000 19350 129075 869
Dec 1997 124361 298000 8850 118575 5786
Nov 2003 130027 83000 19500 129225 802
Jan 1998 124629 268000 9000 118725 5904
Dec 2003 130035 8000 19650 129375 660
Feb 1998 124814 185000 9150 118875 5939
Jan 2004 130194 159000 19800 129525 669
Mar 1998 124962 148000 9300 119025 5937
Feb 2004 130277 83000 19950 129675 602
Apr 1998 125240 278000 9450 119175 6065
Mar 2004 130630 353000 20100 129825 805
May 1998 125641 401000 9600 119325 6316
Apr 2004 130954 324000 20250 129975 979
Jun 1998 125846 205000 9750 119475 6371
May 2004 131162 208000 20400 130125 1037
Jul 1998 125967 121000 9900 119625 6342
Jun 2004 131258 96000 20550 130275 983
Aug 1998 126322 355000 10050 119775 6547
Jul 2004 131331 73000 20700 130425 906
Sep 1998 126543 221000 10200 119925 6618
Aug 2004 131475 144000 20850 130575 900
Oct 1998 126735 192000 10350 120075 6660






Nov 1998 127020 285000 10500 120225 6795






Dec 1998 127364 344000 10650 120375 6989