2006 HSI 26th June 2006

　

For the Big 3rd wave or Big B wave, the expected highest point is at 18677.4, 20022.6, or 20974.8.  This Big 3rd wave or Big B wave should finish by the end of 2006 or early 2007. Then, there'll be a huge correction or a recession during 2007(My estimation is a correction rather than a recession). If it falls below 14000, then it is a recession, we can short it down with the stop loss of highest point of Big 3rd wave or Big B wave.  Otherwise, we can wait for the mid 4th wave to finish and long it up for the mid 5th wave. By then, some fundamental datas and interest rate trend should help us on recognizing whether it's a correction or recession, thus, we don't need just to depend on the technical analysis. Note: If it falls below 14400 in short term, then this counting is wrong, stop loss or even short it down if so.

　

HSI is in 2nd of Mid 5th wave or 3rd of C of Mid 4th wave down. Since most of the HK stocks are already at below-valued prices, I'd stick to the former counting. Thus, I'd prefer buying some HK stocks at the end of c of 2nd of Mid 5th wave even though it is later counting, we can just hold them and, I believe, in half year, it'll be a much higher level than now.  If it falls below 15150, then it is still in the C wave of Mid 4th wave. We can short it down with stop loss of 15940, highest of 2nd of C of Mid 4th wave for hedging if you bought stocks  or for profit if you just speculate. 

　

A more detailed counting, same as the 30 minutes graph above. Same trading strategy. Just that I'm not sure if the b of 2 is done or not, it may first go up or  sideway to finish the b, then start the c of 2.

　

As seen from the graph, I still hold my previous counting for HSI, it seems that it has done b wave today and started c wave.  If you short for 5th of 1st of c wave, set 15880 as stop loss cuz it's the lowest point of 1st wave down.  Set 15955 as stop loss if you short for the whole c wave. The lowest point of c wave won't be lower than 15150 if my counting holds.

　

It looks like the c of 2nd wave is finished.  There are many possibilities for the current counting, but more chance on rising up.  Have to stop loss if it falls below 15600, can short it down if so.  If it falls below 15600, then it is c of 2nd wave.  But the lowest point wouldn't be lower than 15150.  Today's 15608 is in the range of 4th wave, this is an indicator of the finish of 2nd wave.

　

It is either in 4th wave or just finished 4th wave and in 5th wave, thus I predict today's HSI will first rise, then drop back the day after or later in the day for the coming a-b-c correction.  Afterwards, it'll rise, rise, & rise.  But if it falls below 15620, have to stop-loss or can even short it down because it'll then be a C wave, the 16000 high yesterday was the top of B wave if so.

　

Oscillator and Price are going opposite as circled in the graph, thus, a correction is going to happen very soon.  The lowest point may be close to 15300 since 2nd wave usually retraces over 90%.  The target lowest point is 15673 for the normal correction of  61.8%.  15965 is expected for a 38.2% retrace.  I'll stick to 15673, and stop loss point is 15198.

　

I'd like to stick to my first counting (black line prediction)... thus, I'd prefer shorting, stop loss at 16680, downside targets 16036(38.2%) or 15673(61.8%) or a 99% retrace.

If it goes as my 2nd counting, it'll still fall but not as much, probably 16067 lowest point.

In mid-long term, it's still looking good.  Safest strategy is to buy some valuable stocks at this point and buy more when it falls down in the next few days.  I expect this rise lasts until end of 2006 or early 2007 but there maybe a small retraction in Sept/Oct 2006.  A huge correction in 2007 is also expected.

　

之前個D應該都中o西﹐如果有留意開就知~ ^^

我原本以為中會再跌多一浪﹐但係今日既昇浪已經証明咗下一個昇浪已經開始咗。因為今日既高位已經高過之前一浪(向下)既頂﹐即係已經開始咗昇浪﹐另外﹐低位 15945 都十分之接近回調38.2%既1596X。

如果回調只有38.2%﹐昇浪可以預測會十分強勁。恆指高水整整 50 點亦可見我們在大 3 浪之中。

　

From now on, we're in the Mid-5th wave of a Large-3rd wave.  This Large-3rd wave should end in about March-April 2007.  In short term, I expect a fall for the next few weeks.  But this may not be very accurate for the short term prediction.  However, if tomorrow doesn't fall below 17090, then it'll rise one more wave up and there'll be a new high before a retrace.  I'm quite confident with the Mid-Long term prediction.

　

　

Roy   26th June 2006